Heading to Jacksonville

I've spent a lot of time thinking about the 2017 football season as a series of tests. They've been tests of my willingness to let go of so many letdowns, let downs that I saw clearly coming but wouldn't let myself believe they would happen. They've been tests of Kirby Smart, head football coach.

To date, Kirby is the only one passing his tests. 

I still have this overpowering sense of dread about the game Saturday. That is a product of so many years of going to Jacksonville with clear talent (and sometimes coaching) advantages, as well as having had a better season, ect.  Basically all the tropes that end with a pile of 'what ifs' during a long quiet drive back to Athens.

Here's the one thing that is different: I'm not so worried about losing the football game, though I do have a nagging worry about that before every game, I'm worried that we are not going to look like the elite team we've seen all but about two quarters out of 28 this season.  I mean it when I say I'll take a one point victory. Just win and move on, baby.

The thing is, we are an elite team that should do to Florida what we did to Vandy, Mississippi State and Tennessee. Any loophole allowing the Gators a path to victory looks closed. The one thing they do competently on offense is run the ball. The one thing they aren't good at is going deep. They have struggled against RPO and perimeter runs. Our special teams are truly special, while theirs is not good. It even feels like we have the defense to over come a rash of bad decisions that result in turnovers.

And if we do to Florida what we've been doing to other SEC teams so far this season? I'll become a believer. I promise.

GATA
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Ga-Fla stays in Jacksonville or Thank God I Don't Have to Go to Gainesville

I'm cool with this.

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Ga-Florida to stay in Jacksonville?

Looks like.

I could quibble about the money being made if we take the game to Atlanta some times, but to be honest, I'd rather have the game in Jacksonville, even if the money were the same.

And I rather never have to play in Gainesville. Ever. Again.

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Jim McElwain to Florida

They got their man.

The interesting part is the news that the CSU buy out wasn't the hold up. It was what is owed to Muschamp and his assistants, reported to be in the $8M range. Interesting that Foley spent a day trying to convince Colorado State to cave on the contract they negotiated, but wasn't willing to figure out a way to fix the mess he was already in.

Besides, it's just money, right?
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Update:

Buyout details: UAA pays CSU $3 M over 6 years, CSU to visit Swamp between 2017-20 for $2 M, and McElwain pays CSU $2 M = $7 million.
— Scott Carter (@GatorZoneScott) December 4, 2014

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Jim McElwain to Florida?

Who?

Oh, this guy.

If al.com is reporting it, it isn't something made up. Not that he'll actually go to Gainesville, especially considering some other jobs are also open that might fit his background a bit better (I'm looking at you Nebraska). McElwain was Saban's OC when they crushed Florida in the SEC Championship, and he brings a strong offensive pedigree. He also has great hair.

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Us, too

Bill Connelly sums up my feelings pretty well:

The Dawgs allowing Florida to just completely run all over them (before stopping Auburn from doing the same two weeks later) is just nonsense. It isn't going to make sense no matter how much I try to make it. And because of that loss, a) Georgia isn't a national title contender (think about the résumé if the Dawgs are 9-1 with a romp over Auburn!), and b) Georgia needs Missouri to lose again to even win the SEC East.

Try being a Georgia fan for a season, Bill.
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Shanahan for Florida?

Mark Bradley thinks so.

I'd love seeing him there. I mean, he's done wonders handling young talent in Washington.

The Ref agrees

Yes, Florida, please hire this man. http://t.co/2QL4n8qhnV
— 960 The Ref (@960theref) November 18, 2014

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Gundy for Florida?

Vegas thinks so:

Mike Gundy 4/1
Jim McElwain 9/2
Bob Stoops 11/2
Dan Mullen 11/2
Rich Rodriguez 7/1
Mike Shanahan 7/1
Steve Spurrier 8/1
Hugh Freeze 8/1
Gary Patterson 12/1
Gus Malzahn 12/1

The only name on the list that is a head scratcher is Shanahan, unless Florida is not now into taking Redskin sloppy seconds. If that is the case, wouldn't Spurrier be a candidate, too?

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Florida's new coach

I'm thinking an offensive minded guy with head coaching experience at the highest levels.

I know. I'll be Agent Bobo.

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Field position in the Florida game

One thing that stood out in the second and third quarter of the game upon the re-watch was how much we were in a hole every time we got the ball. For the season, we'd been holding our own in field position battles:

vs. Clemson                  +24
vs. South Carolina        +22
vs. Troy                        +8
vs. Tenn                       Even
vs. Vandy                     -4
vs. Missouri                  +21
vs. Arkansas                +15
vs. Florida                    -5

But looking at field position (and time of possession, honestly) in the 2nd and 3rd quarters is stark:

UF                        1st   2nd   3rd   4th     1st   2nd       
                          Qtr   Qtr   Qtr   Qtr    Half  Half  Total
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Time of possession       04:01 10:22 12:01 06:17   14:23 18:18 32:41
3rd Down Conversions      1/3   3/5   1/3   2/3     4/8   3/6   7/14
Avg Field Position        F20   F31   F43   F17     F26   F32   F29
4th Down Conversions      0/0   1/1   0/0   0/0     1/1   0/0   1/1

UGA                       1st   2nd   3rd   4th     1st   2nd       
                          Qtr   Qtr   Qtr   Qtr    Half  Half  Total
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Time of possession       10:59 04:38 02:59 08:43   15:37 11:42 27:19
3rd Down Conversions      4/7   0/2   0/2   4/5     4/9   4/7   8/16
Avg Field Position        G27   G19   G22   G29     G23   G25   G24
4th Down Conversions      0/0   0/0   0/0   0/1     0/0   0/1   0/1

Using Bill Connelly's five factors measure, it isn't hard to see where it all went wrong in the middle half of the game:

FP Margin Range	% of 2013 games	Win%	Avg. scoring margin
20+ yards	4.0%	96.9%	+32.4
15-20 yards	8.6%	92.8%	+28.6
10-15 yards	17.8%	86.7%	+19.9
6-10 yards	23.5%	78.3%	+15.7
3-6 yards	23.5%	59.8%	+6.3
0-3 yards	22.7%	54.1%	+2.6

While simply dividing that game scoring margin by four is slightly flawed logic, it isn't hard to see why UGA got out scored by 24 points in the second and third quarters. With a run first team, especially with the starting center out, thus limiting what you can do passing, it is very easy to see why our offense didn't do more than they did. Of course, that still doesn't explain why a defense that hadn't allowed a single 40 yard plus play this season give up five, all on rushing plays, against a team that hadn't had but five total plays of more than 40 yards this season.
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3 Questions: Florida

This is Georgia Florida. Records don't matter. Who's been playing what way doesn't matter. Florida is playing for Will Muschamp's job, too.

1. Who benefits more from the off week? The smart money is on the team that has less to fix and adjust, but....but the Gators have everything to fix and adjust. Will having an extra week mean they find some answers?
2. How does Treon Harris' promotion change the game? I'm not saying it does, but having an off week certain helps. He has looked just like the Freshman he is, but he has also looked far more effective in moving Florida's offense. As a bonus, he is a QB that can tuck it and run. While I like our chances if he gets too cute, or is in a run first attitude without considering throwing, we have a tough choice if he starts executing the Gator's offense the way Roper wants his QBs to. That means using quick middle and precision passes, coupled with timely runs, all while pushing the tempo. 
3. What does Pruitt have in store? Freshman QB and head coach's job on the line? You'd think Pruitt has invented new ways to blitz. Harris only has 18 attempts, with two of those going for 70+ yards in the Eastern Michigan game. Roper is going to keep it simple for Harris and pick his spots. Pruitt will have to do the same.

Like I said, this is Georgia-Florida. Anything goes. Their defense is very good. If we can create opportunities and win field position, I like our chances.

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Will Muschamp not fired watch: Day 2

• Jones: How did Florida and Will Muschamp wind up here?
• So it's easy to point at Muschamp but look around. This staff, as a whole, just might be the worst Florida has had in two decades as far as getting production in key situations when needed most. All came to UF with accomplished careers. The stock has risen ... on none of them.
• Statistics do not favor Florida Gators embattled coach Will Muschamp
• Following the team’s fifth home loss in two years, Muschamp again repeated that his team’s struggles fall on his shoulders. And yet, he appeared to blame his players for their constant issues in pass protection, special teams execution and quarterback play.
• And you've also lost Tim Tebow
• "I don't think the offense has an identity right now, and I don't think that they know what they want their identity to be," the former Florida quarterback said on Jacksonville sports radio station 1010 XL. "One of the biggest problems on the offense is leadership."

“@ZachAbolverdi: LB Jerome Baker (@Lastname_Baker) has flipped his commitment from #UF to #OhioState.” Muschamp sucks. #IHateWillMuscrap
— NashvilleGator (@nashgator1) October 22, 2014

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Will Muschamp not fired watch

• Jeremy Foley will "evaluate" Will Muschamp, Florida's season "as it plays out"
• To me, while this mostly seems like saying nothing, it seems to be moving the goalposts up for Muschamp — and perhaps setting a win over Georgia as the bad his Gators must clear for him to have a job two weeks from today.
• Florida must fire Will Muschamp — and the sooner, the better
• No Florida fan with half a brain thinks he'll be back, and the number of Gators who want to watch another game with Muschamp in charge of this team is in triple digits, if that.
• Will Muschamp Will Get Fired This Year
• Muschamp has to win now, and he won't. Missouri, Georgia, South Carolina, and FSU all can throw the ball, and all will have great days against this team.

oh god RT @bobosplaybook: @edsbs anything??? pic.twitter.com/43sqS8XfXp
— MUSCHAMP-O-LANTERN (@edsbs) October 20, 2014

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The Florida Misery Files

is that bad RT @ZachAbolverdi: #Gators AD Jeremy Foley during in the closing moments of last night's game. pic.twitter.com/DRJmD7pfcH
— Will Muschamp (@Will_Muschamp) October 19, 2014

Meanwhile, in Gainesville: pic.twitter.com/AeGaqQII9c
— RedditCFB (@RedditCFB) October 19, 2014 

Florida came out to "Rock The Night" by Europe because I guess they've just plugged Muschamp's Zune in
— Spencer Hall (@edsbs) October 19, 2014

Days after giving Muschamp my vote of confidence the #Gators lay an egg like that? Unacceptable. #UGA shut out #Mizzou, #Indiana beat them
— Mike Farrell (@rivalsmike) October 19, 2014

If they don't #FireMuschamp I'm going to rethink my decision to apply to #UF for grad school. I think the UF alumni suicide rate went up.
— Erika Marie (@ErikaMarie) October 19, 2014

And the change in mindset going into a bye week before Georgia-Florida is stunning:

If Muschamp keeps his job this week, he then has two weeks to get the Gators ready to face Georgia.
The Bulldogs routed Missouri on the road 34-0 last weekend. The Tigers led the Gators 42-0 at one point Saturday night.
In other words, another ugly loss likely awaits Muschamp, who is 0-3 against Georgia and 3-10 in his last 13 games overall.

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Will Muschamp has issues

Not to bury the lede or anything, but...

DAMN, PAT DOOLEY: http://t.co/ZTHiDc94Fl pic.twitter.com/Cty0rto7Dl
— Spencer Hall (@edsbs) October 19, 2014

The piece is an ode from someone tired of reporting on a team that invents new ways to go backwards. When you start pointing out the good that Brent Pease and Charlie Weis did, you know it has gotten bad. The fun part is that Dooley has been one of the more level headed when it comes to Florida.

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Will Muschamp, we hardly knew ye

I remember when we wanted to fire Mark Richt to 'lock up Muschamp.'

This is the end of the Muschamp era, right?

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Georgia is the anti-Florida

If you think about it, this chart illustrates how UGA and Florida, at least over the past 11 seasons, are kind of polar opposites on offensive production:

I haven't charted things, but Georgia's increase in offense follows an inverse path. Matt Hinton's article on Muschamp brings up some interesting points, but the most salient one is that Florida fan is tired of not scoring points.

Don't look for that to change with the Gators facing Alabama this weekend.

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Yeah, but what if Kentucky beats Florida

A lot has been made of JoJo Kemps words to his UF friends. I get where he's coming from, too. Is if false bravado? Probably. When you've got nearly three decades of futility against a team, maybe some taking a positive attitude isn't terrible.

Here's the thing, it's been 27 years since Kentucky beat Florida. While I'm normally a let your game speak for you type, when the monkey on your back is that old, maybe having a mental can do attitude is ok.

If the Gators need motivation in the form of a poster on the wall with a Kentucky running back's words on it, how mighty are they?

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See also:
- Kentucky Sports Radio, The Florida Boys'
- Alligator Army, Florida vs. Kentucky: Kemp preditcts "rubbing victory in (Gators') faces"

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Agent Muschamp fail

The three suspended Florida players have served their one game play suspension.

@Mark_Schlabach yes.
— Wright Thompson (@wrightthompson) August 31, 2014

So is Eastern Michigan that tough?

Morgan State 28

(0-1, 0-1 away)

E Michigan 31

(1-0, 1-0 home)

There is a Mark Richt has lost control of Will Muschamp snark here, right?
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Gator Kool-Aid

This is some good stuff. They have the Gators going 7-5 8-4, with a win over Georgia in an upset. Now, I'm all for some good home team puffery, and Lord knows I'm not very high on Georgia right now, but unless Florida has found offensive players to run their new season, points will still be at a premium.
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