WSLS Ep 125 - Rose Bowl Wrap

Scott and Will break down Georgia's win over Oklahoma.

Links:
Will's Postgame Rose Bowl Article for Sports on Earth
"Get Smart: Right Coach, Right Time"
www.sportsonearth.com/article/264147…ach-nick-saban

Scott's Postgame Rose Bowl Celebration Video
"Watching UGA Win the 2018 Rose Bowl"
youtu.be/9QKBuDE-r7U

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Rose Bowl Champions

There is a lot...I mean a lot...of stuff too talk about, but I woke up early in Pasadena with two things running through my head:

1. Man, it still gets me some kind of way when Georgia out coaches a well coached opponent, especially with in game adjustments.  Yes, there are some first year coach things Lincoln Riley did (hello, kicking the FG instead of going for it), but he had no answer or recognition that Georgia had changed their pass fits and was essentially daring Mayfield to beat them going over the top.
2. Georgia travels. I had a sense what the crowd was like based on people around town and tailgating, but it was closer to 70-30 than 60-40. Give OU fans credit, they were plenty loud, but it was a Georgia partisan crowd.
3. I've seen folks on fire about Fromm being asked to throw the ball 29 times. I could quibble about when he was asked to throw, but for the most part, I thought the offensive game plan was good.  OU was giving Georgia the pass on early downs, so why not take it?
4. Watching Baker Mayfield is fun. He's going to be a good pro QB, but he's also going to get his bell rung a lot.  He's a talker, which is fine when you are winning. I know you probably saw or read about Bellamy's advice to him. Don't take that out of context.  If you run your mouth for 75+ plays and lose, you are going to get that kind of advice from the players you have been jawboning with.

One other thing, that QB keeper is still going to be there when we need it. 

On to Atlanta.

Go Dawgs!

TW

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Stopping Georgia's Offense

If we didn't know what we were facing when Oklahoma had the ball, we'd be pretty ok with the S&P+ of Oklahoma's defense:

95th.

Yep, bottom quartile.  It is simple to assume Big 12 offenses and all, but when you look at the Big 12, only three are top 25 in offensive S&P. When you add in Ohio State, they faced four teams in the top 25, but did face two (Oklahoma State and Ohio State) in the top ten.

Georgia's 8th ranked defense faced one top ten (Missouri, who put up 28 pretty quick points on Georgia), and Notre Dame to round out the their top 25 opponents. Georgia faced some really bad offenses: South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, and Florida, all in the 85 to 118 range. The worst offense OU faced is Texas, but did face pretty bad (~80s) offenses in Iowa State and Baylor.

Need I remind you of the Iowa State game where the starting LB also wrecked havoc in the second half running the wildcat as the QB?

Which brings me to my actual point:  Oklahoma struggled with spread concepts, especially those that had power running options incorporated in them. 

So, what does that mean? Oklahoma has fared well against rushing first teams (Ohio State, TCU twice, WVU), holding them to under 5ypc.  But I keep coming back to the Kansas State game, a 42-35 win for Oklahoma.  The Wildcats averaged 6.38 ypc in what was easily their best rushing performance on the season. Not surprisingly, OU graded out at 16% in Connelly's ratings on defense for that game. 

Kansas State led 21-7 a few minutes before the half. They got there because the Sooners couldn't stop their inside runs from passing looks, while KSU ate them up on first down passes.

Now, I'm not saying Georgia will line up and try to jam the ball down Oklahoma's throat, if for no other reason than that is what Oklahoma is expecting.  However, if we can get running down hill, we can make it very interesting for a Sooner defense that has struggled trying to stop more than one phase of a dynamic offense.

That gives me reason for hope.

TW

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Georgia's Defense in the Rose Bowl

"Big 12 don't play defense."

"Oklahoma haven't played anyone with our defensive speed."

"They don't face any SEC type defenses in the Big 12."

Be honest, how many times have you said that in the past 15 years? This season? Since December 3rd?

We Georgia fans have been raised on the religion of 'Defense Wins Championships, Inc.™.' Well, now we'll have a small sample size, but a sample none the less, to test the theory (mantra, really) that they can't handle SEC defenses.

I'd posit that Georgia's defense hasn't faced an offense like Oklahoma's since Auburn's 2103 National Champion runner up. Yes, Auburn's 2017 offense is pretty good, and I feel comfortable saying what Georgia faced on the Plains in November is a close as we've seen this season. In the linked article, I noted it was more about the short passing game, supplemented with timely running plays, that makes Oklahoma's offense tick.

There are three things Georgia needs to do well to slow them down:

1. Make Mayfield uncomfortable in the pocket with a four man rush. Call this the Iowa State plan.
2. Play super competent assignment defense behind them. Call this the Mississippi State plan.
3. Keep Oklahoma in difficult field position choices. Call this the SEC Championship Game plan.

Oklahoma will score points.  The key is to keep them from scoring TDs on all drives.  Blutarsky hit on this last week. The Sooners will score points. Oklahoma has punted 36 times all season, an average of three per game.  They are only giving the ball back two times a game between turnovers and failed 4th down conversions. That means they are scoring on about 9 drives a game.

Iowa State put Oklahoma's QB in difficult run/pass situations because of LB Joel Lanning's game.  He constantly put Mayfield in 'do I pass or do I run situations' on the underneath passes.  Mayfield got his yards, but Lanning's coverage of TE Mark Andrews gave the Cyclones' front the time it needed to cause Mayfield to run...into Lanning's waiting arms.  

The other two points are pretty self evident based on what Georgia did in their games against Mississippi State and Auburn in the SEC Championship.  I'm not comparing Fitzgerald to Mayfield as much as I'm comparing what Oklahoma wants to do with what Mississippi State tried in our game. Oklahoma doesn't have as much designed QB run built into their offense as they have the option for the QB to get chunks of yardage on runs built in if the pass isn't there. Georgia forced Fitzgerald to win the game with his arm, then took that option away from him. 

We did much the same in the SEC Championship against Stiham, but also closing some of the Auburn play book by keeping them in 2nd and 3rd and long plays. 

Now is the put up or shut up time for SEC Defense as the King of All Football Things trope. I'm still noodling out how this goes, but I'm pretty sure it's going to be as much about slowing rather than stopping Oklahoma.

TW

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Vegas on the Possible Outcomes of the National Championship Game

Interesting...

2017-2018 Bowl Season - Exact Outcome of the CFP Finals

Alabama Wins Vs Georgia                     7/2

Alabama Wins Vs Oklahoma                  4/1

Clemson Wins Vs Georgia                     4/1

Clemson Wins Vs Oklahoma                  6/1

Georgia Wins Vs Alabama                     25/4

Georgia Wins Vs Clemson                     13/2

Oklahoma Wins Vs Alabama                  6/1

Oklahoma Wins Vs Clemson                  7/1

Looks like Vegas thinks the Sugar Bowl has the best two teams.

TW

Odds courtesy of Bovada.lv.

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Will Offensive Pace Matter in the Rose Bowl?

Man, I can't get my head around how Oklahoma scores so many points (other than they are really, really good at creating big plays).  When you break down Bill Connelly's advanced stats on Oklahoma, they are first in the nation in offensive explosiveness and efficiency. That is borne out when you consider the faced the third fewest 3rd down attempts in the nation with 144. For comparison sake, Georgia faced 165.

That is  an offense that is very effective at staying in front of the chains. When you factor in their 66 conversions and their 12 fourth down conversions, they are only giving the ball back a shade over 25% of the time when you get them to 3rd down.

That's around 11 3rd downs per game for Oklahoma, with 2 punts per game. They punt at a rate of .4 per offensive score.

Yet they run a pedestrian 75 plays per game.

So, they just line up and run plays until they score. If it takes two plays or 12 plays, they don't care. They'll get theirs.

I know this isn't freshly plowed ground, but it is starting to freak me out. The two things keeping me together are

1. Georgia's offense is specifically designed to eat clock while breaking the will of an opponent, and 
2. We've faced a similar offense twice this season in Auburn.

Is it too soon to start packing for Pasadena?

T

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Stopping Baker Mayfield

I'm not plowing fresh ground here, but dang can Baker Mayfield move the pocket around quickly. I keep getting asked will he hurt us more with his legs or arm, and I remain convinced it is his arm, but that answer has a lot to do with his ability to move around and create time...and confusion. Watching Mayfield in clips, it is easy to see defenses, linebackers especially, get undisciplined in their assignments. Oklahoma's offense will run at least two receivers, with an Hback or Split End exploiting the middle zone area, while sneaking a RB out for quick in/out or wheel route. The linebackers in coverage have to be very good pass defenders, especially on plays that Stidham is baiting them into peeling off coverage to pursue him.

Think Stidham on Auburn's third FG drive in the regular season or their longest pass play completion in the SEC Championship game with wheel route combos to Chandler Cox.

Like many big play offenses, Oklahoma dares you to be aggressive, then beats you with it. The difference is that offense also clicks well on the 5-7 yard play, which is all about Mayfield's ability to find an open receiver in the 3-6 yard range. They faced about 6 3rd and longs (7+ yards) a game, that from a team that had over 140 offensive drives this season. That is comparable to Georgia, but they use their short passing game to accomplish that. Then they lull you in and hit a 65 yard pass play.

That is all about Mayfield's ability to move the pocket and extend plays, not necessarily by rushing, though he can do that, too.

So, what's the trick to stopping them? Baker Mayfield isn't great with walls between him and open ground.  When he is pressured into rushing around a wall to escape, he tends to get caught and put on the ground face down pretty easily.

Go back and watch how Mel Tucker's defense played against Auburn in the SEC Championship game. Georgia made Stidham uncomfortable in the pocket, making him throw the ball away a fair amount. That is the best example of how you can hope to slow down Oklahoma. Make Mayfield uncomfortable by pressuring him to run into that wall or get rid of the ball, probably without blitzing too much.  The magic is in actually doing it again, this time against a better QB and an offense that has a month to prepare for what you did.
TW

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