(PWD Note: All stats effective pre-UK Game. He sent this last Friday. Sorry for the delay, but the point is the same)
Ever since Coach Richt arrived in Athens, it seems like our offense has produced very few long scoring plays from scrimmage. So, I decided to see if this was just my perception or reality by going through the box scores starting with the '01 season. After doing this, I decided to compare our number of big plays with some other programs with similar winning percentages over the last six seasons. I found the results interesting to say the least.
I defined a big play/long TDs as any offensive touchdown from scrimmage of 35 yards or more. The teams are ordered by number of wins since 2001.
| Team | W-L | TD's of 35+ yds (rank) | Long Rushing TD's (rank) | Long Passing (rank) |
| 1. Texas | 64-9 | 52 (1st) | 12 (T5) | 40 (1st) |
| 2. Oklahoma | 61-13 | 49 (2) | 15 (8) | 34 (3) |
| 3. Southern Cal | 60-11 | 46 (4) | 18 (2) | 28 (T8) |
| 4. Ohio State | 59-13 | 43 (5) | 12 (T5) | 31 (4) |
| 5. Miami | 58-12 | 30 (12) | 11 (T7) | 19 (13) |
| 6. Georgia | 58-16 | 29 (13) | 5 (12) | 24 (11) |
| 7. LSU | 57-16 | 47 (3) | 11 (T7) | 36 (2) |
| 8. Auburn | 54-18 | 41 (T6) | 21 (1) | 20 (12) |
| 9. Michigan | 53-18 | 32 (11) | 2 (13) | 30 (T5) |
| 10. Virginia Tech | 53-20 | 41 (T6) | 13 (4) | 28 (T8) |
| 11. Tennessee | 51-20 | 39 (9) | 10 (T9) | 29 (7) |
| 12. Florida | 49-21 | 36 (10) | 8 (11) | 28 (T8) |
| 13. FSU | 48-24 | 40 (8) | 10 (T9) | 30 (T5) |
-- Yes, we have fewer long scoring plays than any of our peers, so my perception was correct (but we all kinda suspected that). What's amazing is how many games we have managed to win without much help from big offensive plays. To me, this means
- A) Our defense has been spectacular (which we knew)
B) Since the O doesn't score long touchdowns, it has to string good plays together on longer drives, which is tough to do. I think it's also interesting to compare what we thought we were getting with Richt (big play offensive genius) with what we've got (a solid, but severely unspectacular offense and a great defense). (PWD Note: I think he means a normally great defense)
-- Since the beginning of 2003, Georgia has only 13 long offensive scores. From 2003, we trail: Miami (16), Michigan (22), Tennessee (23), Florida (24), Auburn (24), Ohio State (27), Virginia Tech (27), FSU (27), LSU (33), Texas (33), USC (33), and Oklahoma (35).
-- Florida has only 5 long offensive scoring plays since Urban Meyer arrived. They are last among this group behing Georgia (7) and Miami (7).
-- Only Michigan has fewer long rushing scores (2) than Georgia (5) over the last 5 plus seasons.
-- Georgia's 24 long passing scores trails only Miami (19) and Auburn (20). No other team is close.
-- Auburn can run the ball. They are the only team with more long running scores (21) than long passing scores (20).
Feel free to post it on your blog if you think it might stir up some interesting discussion. It's tough to argue with Richt's results, but holy hell, how much better could we have been with some quick-strike capability on offense?
We absolutely never have receivers wide-ass open and our longest rushing touchdown in six years has been 52 yards. Every team on my list has a run longer than that. I hope you don't take this as Richt-bashing. I'll take boring wins over exciting losses any day.
By Vinnie Salvucci
(Share your thoughts in the comments section)
10 comments:
Funny, it seems like we had at least 30 big plays in the LSU 2004 game all by itself.
I also have a funny feeling we might get a big one on Saturday. Richt still hasn't busted out his once a year rooskie play that David Greene made into a work of art. (You know, the one wear the QB turns his back on the D after a PA fake, hides the ball, then lets it fly to a wide open receiver). Watching Greene throw that puppy to Terrence Edwards was a thing of beauty.
Stafford threw the rooskie to Danny Ware in Columbia.
i think the big plays are always up to the players. plays are designed to go only so far. the guys on the field have to break a tackle, make a move, do something extra to create a big play.
seems like UGA has been 2 things since Richt got to Athens: Field goal U and Fall-down-immediately-after-catching-the-ball U. I bet if you looked at YAC stats, we'd be in the bottom third of all NCAA teams since 01.
The guys on our team who have been the so-called "playmakers" haven't really lived up to the billing, while at say, Oklahoma for instance, they were scoring 60 per game with Jason White launching anything down field and his guys were catching it and doing something with it.
Hopefully Mikey Henderson, Sean Bailey, and Demiko Goodman can get open deep and keep running next year.
The falling down after the catch thing has been killing us. I'm glad somebody pointed it out. I would put a lot of money on us being in the bottom 3 in YAC.
Big plays are fun, but intending to make big plays, and by that I mean designing your offense for them, is the stuff of backyard flag football, and imo a bad idea. Why? Because designed big plays are high risk. It's called a "Hail Mary" because you aren't likely to be successful without some help from above.
Florida and Michigan have fewer bps than we do? Given their current standings in the polls, I'd say that supports my point. Imo, we have fewer big plays because we are by design intending to make successful plays first and then try, after the original success, to break something and then go further. Trouble is, we play in the SEC, where defense is valued by coaches, and it's harder to break big plays in that situation.
Big plays are fun, exciting, certainly crowd pleasers and can really jack up the team because, well, it's a big play.
But the bench-mark for long-drives is and will always be in 1981 when the Dawgs were playing Florida, down 21-20 with about 10 minutes to go. They started around their own 5 and preceeded to go the length of the field in just over 2 weeks, 3 days, 5 hours and 34 minutes (Get the 34?). I guess the days of eating up an entire quarter using ball control offense to exact a win when you have to keep your defense off the field are over.
I love big plays, but I'll never forget that drive as along as I live. That was a thing of beauty.
I think these statistics demonstrate that over the past few years we have lacked a game-breaker at running back. Some of the other teams have two or three times as many long rushing plays as we do. IMO this is indicative of a lack of talent not poor coaching. As far as big plays through the air, we are on the lower end of the spectrum, but we are only about 5 plays below the medium. As some others have noted, that's probably a result of lack of YAC (although I don't have the stats to prove this). While I do think Richt is somewhat of a conservative play caller, I think the evidence points to a lack of game-breaking running backs and receivers, as they are the type of players that break off long runs and turn seven yard catches into touchdowns.
However we win is fine with me. If we have no big plays, but are still scoring enough points to win and competing for the SEC title ... I'll take it.
In 2006, Georgia has 1 big scoring play, none against Division 1 competition. USC is the only other team with so few. I agree that a lack of big-time playmakers has been part of the problem, especially the last few years (post Edwards and Gibson. Big-time playmakers tend not to catch-and-fall.
Big offensive plays are rarely "Hail Marys". They often involve a playmaker turning a handoff or short pass into a long touchdown. Most long bombs are set up by the threat of the run or an effective play fake. None of the teams listed are traditionally reckless with the ball.
I agree that successful teams need to be able to drive the ball down the field, but let's face it: sometimes even great offenses have days when they can't string together enough good plays to sustain long drives. On those days, having a playmaker turn a so-so play into a long TD can be the difference between winning and losing. Since '03, Georgia hasn't been able to do that.
As for the "playing in the SEC" argument, compare Auburn (41), LSU (47), Tennessee (39), and Florida (36) with Georgia's 29. Heck, South Carolina has 27 and they barely have a winning record since 2001.
Good discussion guys. To fuel the talent v. scheme debate, I thought I'd drop some names of guys who show up a lot on my list (and their total big play TDs) so we can compare our playmakers to theirs.
Texas- Roy Williams-13, Cedric Benson-5, Vince Young-5, Limas Sweed-7
Oklahoma- Mark Clayton-10, ? Jones-8,Adrian Peterson-9
Southern Cal- Kerry Cobert-5, Reggie Bush-16, Steve Smith-5, Dwayne Jarrett-4
Ohio State- Michael Jenkins-7, Santonio Holmes-10, Ted Ginn-9
Miami- Willis McGahee-3, ? Johnson-4, Roscoe Parrish-4, Santana Moss-3
Georgia- Fred Gibson-8, Terence Edwards-6, M. Smith, T. Brown, D. Ware-2 each
LSU- Michael Clayton-8, Devery Henderson-9,
Auburn- Ronnie Brown-4, Cadillac Williams-7, Ben Obomanu-7
Michigan- Braylon Edwards-12, Mario Manningham-6
Virginia Tech- Thomas Jones-5, Josh Morgan-5
Tennessee- Dontae Stallworth-5, Kelly Washington-4, Chris Meachem-5,
Florida- Taylor Jacobs-5, Ciatrick Fason-4, Bubba Caldwell-5, Chad Jackson-4
FSU- Javon Walker-5, Craphonso Thorpe-9, Lorenzo Booker-4
Georgia's two biggest playmakers are now on an NFL practice squad (Gibson) and in the CFL (Edwards). Pretty much everybody else has had some NFL starters come through their program. I think the argument can be made that we haven't had the playmakers.
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