About Last Night (hoops)

I really don't think that anything has changed regarding our tourney situation. Well...perception and statistical probability has changed, but not the requirement for success.

We needed to go 9-7 in the SEC to make the big dance before last night's game. I still believe that we need to go 9-7. It's just going to be that much harder to get 9 wins when we'll have to pick up two against:

-- MSU (Winners of 5 of their past 6. Battling for 1st in the West)
-- UK (Senior night in Rupp Arena)
-- UT (Both teams will need that game. At least it's at home)

Beating UK (RPI: 8) or UT (RPI: 14) would likely boost our RPI enough to get us into the tourney. Asking me if I think we will or won't is an entirely different question than asking me "Do you think 9 wins gets us in?"

Is Nine the Magic Number?:
Since 1999, only 1 SEC team has missed the NCAA tourney with a 9-7 record. In that time frame, only one SEC team with a 7-9 record made it.

Research by Graffy on the UGASports.com b-ball message board.

2006 - UK got in at 9-7. Their RPI was 41 and SOS was 15.

2005 - MSU got in at 9-7. Their RPI was 31 and SOS was 60.

2004 - Vandy, SC, and Bama all got in at 8-8. With RPIs of 26, 27 and 45.

2003 - Very weird year. UGA of course pulled out at 11-5. UT didn't make it at 9-7 with an RPI of 60, while Auburn (RPI 36) and LSU (RPI 39) made it at 8-8 and Bama (RPI 38) made it at 7-9.

2002 - Ole Miss made it at 9-7. Their RPI was 44 SOS was 62.

2001 - UGA made it at 9-7. and an RPI of 27. And UT made it at 8-8 with an RPI of 14.

2000 - Auburn made it at 9-7 with an RPI of 22 even with Arkansas winning the SECT at 7-9.

1999 - Arkansas made it at 9-7 with and RPI of 28 and Ole Miss made it at 8-8 with an RPI of 51.

In other words, history suggests that Georgia should/will make the NCAA tourney with a 9-7 record and a Top 15 Strength of Schedule. However, what it takes to get there and actually getting there are two wildly different things.

ht - thedogfather

PWD

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