NCAA Seeding: Mindless Conjector or Rock Solid Analysis?

Back of the napkin projection....Each win from here on out roughly moves us up or down 1 seed in the tourney. Right now, we're at #45-47 in the RPI. With our strength of schedule, that's roughly an 11 seed.

So let's say it broke this way:
-- UF (home) Loss = 12 seed / bubble
-- SC (road) Win = 11 seed (6-5)
-- Auburn (home) Win = 10 seed (7-5)
-- Ole Miss (road) Win = 9 seed (8-5)
-- MSU (home) Win = 8 seed (9-5)
-- UK (road) Loss = 9 seed (9-6)
-- UT (home) Loss = 10 seed (9-7)

9-7 in SEC play would likely get us the #4 East seed in the SEC Tourney. That would put us against the #5 team from the West in Round 1. I'll take my chances with the bottom half of the SEC West in Atlanta.

If we go 9-7 in SEC (18-11 overall) combined with a first round tourney win, that would put us at 19-12 and 10-8 overall in the league. I think that would get us a nine seed.

For historical perspective, when we made the NCAA Tourney in '01, we were:

9-7 in the SEC
We lost to the West #6 seed in SEC 1st round.
We lost 7 of our last 10 games.
And we were 16-14 overall. We were also an 8 seed.

That was an unusual year b/c of the strength of our schedule. But consider in 2006:

• Indiana had a #34 RPI and a 9-7 record in the Big 10. 6 seed.
  
• Texas A&M had the #44 RPI and a 10-6 Big 12 record. 12 seed.
  
• Arkansas #45 RPI and a 10-6 record. 8 seed.
  
• NC State had the #51 RPI with a 10-6 ACC record. 10 seed.
  
• Alabama was #56 RPI and a 10-6 SEC record. 10 seed.
  
• Seton Hall had the #58 RPI and a 9-7 Big East record. 10 seed.

We need to win that first round SEC tourney game to lock it, but I like our chances at 9-7 in the league.

BTW -- Florida State did not get in last year with a 9-7 ACC record, but they had a 63 RPI. Our RPI will be in the low 40s/high 50s if we make 9-7.

PWD

Tweet