As March Madness continues to draw closer, fans around the country eagerly await the latest projections from the "Bracketologists." Guys like Jerry Palm and Joe Lunardi give rabid basketball fans a look into the possibilities of where their team is or isn't headed coming tourney time.
But they aren't the only bracketologists just as the NCAA Tourney isn't the only bracket. There is, of course, the NIT (aka March Sadness). NITology.com's Mike Scullin keeps fans in the loop regarding "the other side of the bubble."2007 marks Scullin's third year as a bracketologist. Last year, he nailed 38 of 40 NIT teams (95%). The Georgia Sports Blog talked with him about his latest projections that have the Bulldogs as a 3 Seed in the NIT.
Paul Westerdawg (PWD): Are you expecting any surprises this year with the NIT?
Mike Scullin (MS): We've already had surprises. There are currently five teams that have likely qualified for the NIT with automatic bids (Wright St., South Alabama, East Tennessee State, Marist and Austin Peay). You're going to see the best list of teams in history to be left out of the NIT this year. Big schools like UConn, Nebraska, Cal, South Carolina and Oklahoma are all at risk of being pushed out of the tournament. (Update: Wright St. is no longer an NIT at-large team. Mike has taken them off his bracket)
(PWD NOTE: Here's the ruling on Automatic Bids for the NIT:
"The regular-season champion of any NCAA Division I conference (as determined by the conference's tie-break protocol) not otherwise selected to the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Championship will secure an automatic qualification to the National Invitation Tournament."PWD: Why did they go from 40 teams last year to 32 this year?
MS: I think they wanted to create a more clearly defined tournament. Last year's play-in round where certain teams got a bye created confusion for fans. Personally, I would've gone from 40 to 64 teams instead of 40 to 32. There's going to be a big squeeze for NIT slots this year, and I wouldn't be suprised to see them change it back to a larger pool next year.
PWD: In the past, they didn't really have a seeded bracket in the NIT. Aren't the seedings new?
MS: Yes. Last year, was the first time that they had a selection committee who seeded the teams. In the past, it was a bracket designed to collect money rather than support a system of fairness. Now, it's much more fair. They have a selection committee now just like the NCAA tourney.
PWD: I noticed a regional component to the seeding process. What do you make of that?MS: Once the seeds are determined, they look for geographically favorable match-ups within the seeds. They seed the 1s first, then they pair them up with the best geographic 8 seeds. Then they seed the 2s and 7 seeds. And so on.
(We could end up with Michigan in Round 2. Image: MZone)
PWD: Who do you have Georgia playing in Round 1?
MS: Georgia vs. Missouri in Athens would be my guess.
PWD: If Georgia beats Auburn and loses to UF, do you think we can move up from a 3 seed?
MS: They might move up to a #2 or #1 seed. Georgia is right there with Kansas State and Bradley.
PWD: What kind of traffic does the site pull?
MS: Alot of traffic comes from message boards. Mostly, it's fans from message boards belonging to teams that I project into the NIT. I've been getting a lot of email lately from Auburn fans. They're in with the last spot right now so I hope they'll be happy.
PWD: Do you get hate mail?
MS: The hate mail is pretty straight forward. Usually it's just "You're an idiot." Obviously, people reading my site would rather be in the NCAA brackets.
PWD: How do you think your projections will do this year?
MS: It's not as cut and dried at the bottom of the field this year. There are six or seven NIT bubble teams. I doubt that I'll get 95% right again this year.
PWD: Thanks for your time. Hopefully, Georgia will win its first two SEC Tourney games so I can start thinking about the NCAA bracket sites again. I mean that in a nice way.
See Also:
- -- NIT - official site
-- 2007 NIT Projections - NITOLOGY.com
-- NIT moves from 40 to 32 teams - NIT.org
-- NIT selection committee -- NIT.org
-- Dave Odom is Basketball's Crash Davis - GSB
-- Forecasting the OTHER Tourney - Deadspin
6 comments:
News we can use, pwd. Unless we win two this week.
Until you started working on this, I don't think any of us realized that the NIT had moved to a conventional, legitimate "NCAA-lite" format with seeds and fixed brackets. The old NIT format (which UGA fans came to know better than we would have cared to) was all about trying to sell a few tickets by skewing things to favor teams with the best attendance. The new NCAA-owned product gets rid of the whole carnival sideshow element.
Going into the season, I thought this was an NIT year. So far, we're meeting my expectations.
If we could win 1 in the SECT and 1 in the NIT at home, we'd finish 19-14. Given where we were last year and Mercer's injury, that's progress.
That said...I think we need to beat Auburn to secure that 1st round home game.
Yep. As best I recall from the fall, there was a strong consensus among the non-ax grinding members of the hoops message board world that the NIT was about right, NCAA if we caught some breaks, staying home altogether a significant disapointment.
Pretty clearly we didn't catch any real breaks, and in fact had some bad ones, so the NIT seems about right for a year that was really just last year's team, plus Takais Brown, minus Mike Mercer down the stretch.
Stick, I think it was even worse than that down the stretch. We had last year's team plus Takais Brown, minus Mike Mercer, Channing Toney, Younnes Idrissi, and Kevin Brophy (add in Levi Stukes for one game as well).
Oh, and I forgot Kendrick Johnson too. Although he played sparingly as a freshman due to injury.
I will say this about the NIT - a lot of people will use the term "March Sadness" but because of the NCAA selection process, there will be several teams in the NCAA that are not worthy of being in the top 64(5). So, in a way, the NIT has a function, and winning it can be something of a springboard into next year. I still wouild like to see us win two in the SEC and make the NCAA, but I don't think an NIT bid is a catastrophe at all.
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