What will it take?
The State has published the SEC East Championship scenarios for each team (except Vandy) including two, three and four way ties. It doesn't look good for us. We won't win any three way or four way ties.
The only way we win the East...win out and have UT lose one more game. That's not a completely unrealistic scenario except that Georgia hasn't beaten Florida and Auburn in the same season since 1982.
See Also
-- Official Tie-Breaker Rules - SECSports
-- Knowshon Moreno would Stiff Arm Chuck Norris in the FACE - Facebook Group
PWD
ht - fanblogs.com
17 comments:
I'll say it's not a completely unrealistic scenario - having to win two home conference games and hope UT loses one of three. I never dreamed we'd be in this position a few weeks ago.
But we could still go with 3 losses..that's with ut losing 2 of 3 (not completely out there) and usc losing its last 2 against Ark. and UF (again not completely unrealistic). Just throwing that out there.
I like our chances of the Vols losing at least one of their remaining three SEC games.
Paul - If it were any other season I'd say your comment about the fact that UGA hasn't beat UF and AU in the same season since '82 had some merit. But with all that's happened thus far, I think it makes nothing but perfect sense for us to beat Auburn. Of course I'm sure the hangover from that grind it out battle (because I think it will be to much to ask for another a$$ beating like we laid on War Eagle last year) will lead us to lose to the Cats on a last second field goal...
Something else to consider...
If we win out and dont make it to the SEC championship, we will be in the top ten and almost guaranteed a BCS at large berth, especially if LSU wins out and wins the SEC championship, which seems pretty likely. Either way, it comes down to UGA winning out
If we win out and don't win the East, the Dawg Nation will become the biggest LSU fans on the planet.
Because an LSU loss in the title game would likely mean they still get a BCS at-large bid. That would send us to the Citrus even at 10-2.
That FL/AU statistic you listed is staggering.
It's true that we haven't beaten Florida and Auburn in the same year since '82, but then again we haven't seen a big man like Trinton Sturdivant dance like "Mean Gene the Dancin' Machine" from the Gong Show in our history either. That is good Karma right there. I like our chances.
I was thinking like Brad about this, but honestlly, we need to beat Troy first. I know it doesn't help us in the SEC, but we can afford to over look them after a big emotional high and a week that has focused a lot on the celebration penalties.
Thanks for the info. At this point, I'll take winning out and let the chips fall where they may with the SEC. Frankly (and begrudgingly), if UT beats Ark, Vandy & UK then they should go - no regrets on my part.
We'll just take our trip to New Orleans or Miami and be happy.
First things first - beat Troy!!
Go Dawgs!!
UGA 38
Troy 21
I asked this the other day..
Obviously the best scenario would be to win out and win the SEC.
What would be our 2nd best option?
To win the East (and lose the SECCG) and play in the Citrus.. or to win out, not win the East and get the at large at the Orange or Sugar?
a three way tie with ut, uga, and uf, the highest ranked team goes. this is what happend in 2003 when we beat ut who beat uf who beat uga.
we're the highest ranked right now, so its possible we could still make it.
Chris - the highest rated thing is the 6th or 7th in a series of tie breakers.
It would never come to that. In a 3 way tie between UGA, UF and UT, we do not advance by virtue of having lost more SEC East games.
Click the link. The State explains all of it.
I set up a large spreadsheet that contains every possible combination of outcomes for the remaining SEC East games. Out of 512 combinations (2 to ninth power), Georgia is the SEC East champion in 190 scenarios. Tennessee is next with 151 scenarios. Even though Tennessee is in the driver’s seat being up in the loss column, since they have three SEC games left, there are more ways left for them to lose. Florida wins under 60 different scenarios. South Carolina wins under 43 scenarios. Vanderbilt and Kentucky each have 34 scenarios under which they will make it to the SECCG.
There are no scenarios in which three or more teams finish tied and Georgia wins the tiebreakers. There are 44 scenarios in which two teams finish tied, and Georgia wins the SEC East. The craziest situation would be a six way tie. There are three possible six way tie scenarios. Vanderbilt wins two of them. Florida wins the third.
As something of a nerd myself, I just want to say, "Thanks, actuarydawg! You are a real man of genius!" (cue music)
oh ye of little faith
you were all saying the samething a week ago: we can't do it.
Put some faith in your team.
I'm with redddawg.
While I would love for us to go to the SECCG, I wouldn't be devastated if UT beats Vandy, Arkansas, and UK although I will be pulling for them too. If we win out, they win out, they'll go to the SECCG where they'll most likely lose to LSU. That will put another loss on their record, we'll be high up in the rankings with our wins, and would have a pretty good shot at a BCS bowl.
So, lets win out and we'll either be in the SECCG or have a good chance at a BCS bowl like LSU last year.
Winning out is a tall order right now. I suspect Auburn will really be after our ass, and if we escape that then Kentucky is right there knocking.
I'd love to see it, but we haven't strung two games together yet where we played 60 minutes. Hopefully we can survive our lull this weekend, and get jacked back up for Auburn the following week.
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