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February 11, 2008

A Neighborhood in Transition?

In looking around the Southeast, there seems to be a number of coaches who are on a liquid magma hot seats. There are also some hot up and comers who may be on the move soon. So much so that we could see some large scale changes in the neighborhood.

The first two dominoes have already fallen as Dave "Crash Davis" Odom (SC) and John Brady (LSU) have retired and gotten canned respectively. Those schools may not be alone in searching for a new coach: (Note -- All records listed are against Div I teams only)
  • Alabama - The past two years Alabama has experienced more than its fair share of critical injuries. This season, the program is 13-11 overall / 2-7 in SEC play, and they are heading towards their third consecutive year without an NCAA tourney appearance. The natives are indeed restless in Tuscaloosa. Prior success should give Mark Gottfried another year. But winning soon would be an excellent idea.

  • Auburn - Jeff Lebo is 12-10 / 2-7 with the Tigers this year. In four years on the Plains, he has yet to break the 17 win mark or enjoy the post-season. Lebo is another coach who has experienced extensive season ruining injuries at Auburn. While I personally don't think he's a long term solution there, I'd wager he gets another year. The Tigers are tentatively set to open a new arena for the 2010-2011 season. I think Lebo is the sacrificial lamb as the AU administration waits to make a move closer to the new arena opening.

  • Georgia - Let's face it. Felton needs to win some ball games. We're currently 10-10 against Div I teams and 2-6 in SEC play. We're five years into Felton's tenure, and we're starring down the barrel of a 4 or 5 win SEC record. I'm not calling for his head. I'm just saying that it's awfully hard to keep investing in a coach that's struggling so mightily year after year. Regardless of the reasons. Dean Legge of DawgPost.com offers the opinion that "it's just not working." While several fans have written into the AJC suggesting that "wins matter, too."

  • Georgia Tech - The Wizard of Techwood is 11-11 overall / 4-4 in ACC play. Paul Hewitt is in no real danger right now. A Championship Game appearance buys you quite a long leash, but his teams continue to play below their talent level. Hewitt has traditionally been one of the worst road game coaches in the history of...well...ever. However, he has picked up Ws in his last 3 ACC road games. In eight years, Hewitt has never won more than 9 ACC games in a season. He needs a strong finish this season, and a big year next season to dial the pressure way down.

  • Mississippi - If Andy Kennedy can get his team back on track in SEC play, he will move to the top of the list of hot young coaches. Ole Miss is one of the toughest major conference jobs in the country when you factor in tradition, facilities, budget, recruiting base of in state literate kids, and emphasis on b-ball. He could be on the move very soon to a venue where the wins and recruiting come easier and with more financial rewards tied to them.

  • UAB - If Bama makes a move and replaces Gottfried, they would likely take a long look at Mike Davis (former Bama player). Particularly, if he can take his current momentum into the NCAA Tourney.
With Arkansas's hire of Pelphrey last year, you could see as many as six SEC schools changing head guys in a two or three year period.

That type of movement creates a lot of demand for coaches with Southern ties. Guys like Anthony Grant (VCU by way of the Gators), Travis Ford (UMass by way of UK), Lon Kruger (UNLV by way of UF) and others are going to be making a helluva lot more money very soon. It's a shallow talent pool to go fishing in, and the price of doing business is going way up.

PWD
 
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