Doing my own research last night...
One sign that a program is well coached: the team typically gets better as the year progresses. With Felton, the trend sort of goes in the other direction. A rolling average of win/loss percentage by month for his five years in Athens shows:
- Nov + Dec: 0.691
Jan: 0.395
Feb: 0.342
March: 0.235
Felton's Month by Month
Winning Percentage Per Year
Winning Percentage Per Year
Only once has a Felton led team dramatically accelerated it's winning percentage in February. That is also the only season in which Felton had a winning record in Feb. (2003-2004).
As for March...there's nothing positive to say. Coach Felton is 4-13 in the month of March so far. It's been a lot more like March Sadness than March Madness lately.
See Also:
-- Felton by the numbers - TeddyBulldog
PWD
13 comments:
Awfully, awfully ominous for DF. That Damon would engage the speculation at all, even is this very careful way, seems to me be a sign that a change is likely.
I had understood, not sure from where, that DF had a modest buyout, but the story says that's not the case and that the AA would be on the hook for all his remaining years. I wonder if that is really right.
Those are numbers that are hard to ignore. Without question, CDF had a tough assignment, and because of that a lot of folks, myself included, have been willing to give him a little extra slack. And the folks who will say that he's had a full cycle of recruiting classes miss the point, imo: he didn't start recruiting from a level field; only in the last couple of years has he been able to recruit on a fairly even basis. But even then, he has recruited poorly because no one stays. Either they get injured (that could be fate) or they get arrested and dismissed or he runs them off. I am all in favor of discipline, but I am also in favor of being able to finish a game with more than five scholarship players. Even allowing for the bad hand he was dealt, I am beginning to think it is time. My only concern is whether other coaches would be interested in such a pathetic situation. I don't want us to look like we give up on coaches too early. But I think it is time.
How do those numbers compare to other SEC teams?
JG - Logically the vast majority of those games for Jan and Feb are against other SEC teams.
So...SOMEONE is winning those games that we're losing.
Not sure I follow your question.
I think what's interesting about each line on the graph...it shows how each team did within the context of its own ability. Schedules certainly vary from month to month.
But I think it's more relevant to compare what a team was doing vs. it's own talent/ability. Instead of comparing it to the broader population.
We have end of season standings for that. And they aren't pretty.
I don't think Damon can escape it. It's not like the media starts by asking "Are you going to fire Felton."
They start by asking, "Is this a frustrating season for you?" Or "what's the toughest decision you've had to make." And it goes from there.
He can't hide from the media. And he can't just say, "I've already said that I'm evaluating the program at the end."
They are going to write this story either way. You either give your 2 cents and help shape it. Or you let some other voice shape it for you.
Who hired Felton? Was it Adams or Evans?
I do not think it was necessarily a bad hire. Felton was successful at WKU and was well regarded. He may go somewhere else and win.
The next question is who would take the UGA job? I do not think it will be a hot young coach; I think they will shy away and wait for a better job to open up.
Dooley and Adams were in charge of the Felton hire.
I think it was a pretty good hire at the time. That said, it sucks knowing that the job almost went to Tim Floyd.
As for successors, we'll address that if he's canned.
BOBBY KNIGHT
As for possible replacements, this guy is available:
http://www2.mercer.edu/News/Articles/2008/080226slonaker.htm
(Copy and paste into your browser)
I've been begging Felton for a reason to give me confidence that he can get it done. There are just too many reasons to change course and not enough reasons to stay the course.
The Harrick thing is over. What I think is amazing is that he had a better team in year 3 when he had an excuse to have this kind of a club. Even with the departures of Mercer and Takais, there have been plenty of instances where we could win winnable games and didn't deliver.
I too have been a Felton supporter and wish that he could give me some kind of reason why I should stay behind him. Unfortunately, that never seems to happen. I keep thinking, if we can win this game or that game then that will show some sign of promise. It's just not there. We are not winning the games we should at home and our road record is horrid. I didn't expect to beat Tennessee, but I did expect to beat Kentucky and South Carolina. LSU? Please...that should have been one of those wins to help bolster the road record. This year, I could have lived with average. We are nowhere near average.
I'm still shocked Mark Bradley hasn't weighed in on this one way or the other.
Bradley weighed in a few wks ago. I expect he will again.
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