SI.com, Sportsline.com and ESPN.com all discussed their top players for the 2009 mock drafts. Sportsline projects Stafford as #1 overall, and they list Knowshon Moreno just outside of the "cream of the crop."
ESPN projects Matthew Stafford at #3 in their mock draft behind...wait for it...Michael Johnson (DE) of Georgia Tech at #2. If Michael Johnson is a 1st rounder, then I'm John Holmes. If he's the #2 pick of the draft....well...I'm Jenna Jameson. ESPN also has Moreno going at #10 in their mock draft.
SI.com also has Stafford as the #1 overall pick. Interestingly, they have the Falcons with the #1 pick; however, he suggests that they would trade that pick (given that they already drafted a QB this year) to the Chiefs. Talk about a tough pill for me to swallow as a UGA fan trying to develop some sort of interest in the local NFL team. All three services have Michael Johnson from GT as a first rounder which is just laughable.
Regardless, I don't really see Stafford as a Top 5 pick next year. True junior QBs rarely come out early. They successfully come out early even less often. True junior QBs from affluent families (and Dallas' Highland Park neighborhood is fairly well to do) declare early even less often. See the Mannings and Leinart as good examples.
Knowshon on the other hand. If the kid rocks another 1,500+ yards rushing this year, I think he declares. He'll be a redshirt Soph, and he'd be smart to at least consider the move.
All of that said...any site that has Tech's Johnson (who I'm not sure even started last year) in the first round lacks the credibility to worry me into thinking much about Stafford or Moreno's status next season.
See Also:
-- Stafford the rage in '09 Mock Drafts - ABH
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20 comments:
If Stafford improves like he did last year we will be looking at 3,000+ passing yards & 30 TD's
why wouldn't he declare for the draft? i sure dont want him to but hell if i was in his shoes i'd be looking at the millions id be making and not my school
However, here a two reasons why Matt Stafford might declare for the draft if he is projected to be the 1st or 2nd QB taken in the 2009 draft. Reason #1 - Matt Leinart. Reason #2 - Brian Brohm. Both were projected to be the top QB taken in the draft but they opted to return to school. Leinart ended up drafted #10 and Brohm fell to the 2nd round.
According to FootballOutsiders, the two primary measures to predict future success of QB drafted in Rnds. 1 or 2 in the NFL are # of starts and completion %. Stafford will have somewhere between 34 - 36 career starts at the end of the 2008 season. I doubt there will be many seniors with that many starts. He will need to improve his completion % though. His just 54.5% for his career. Greene was 58.9% and Shock 55%. The NFL probably would like to see him raise his % to 62-65%.
I'd hate to see either of them leave. But passing up tens of Millions is a tough thing to do.
Pete Prisco at CBSSportsline also has some thoughts on the 09 draft and he also has Stafford at the top of his list.
While you're there take a look at the new preseason top 25 that cstv.com has.
Even if it's not in the draft, Johnson and Stafford will always be connected by one moment in history. It was Johnson, all gangly 6'7" of him, who bit on Stafford's play fake in 2006 and opened up the passing lane through which Stafford found Massaquoi! for the game winner. So he has that going for him.
Re: anon @ 10:39: The NFL's not the only folks who'd like to see that completion percentage in the low to mid 60s. ;)
If Knowshon has another good year, he probably should head out, as he'd be more attractive to the NFL with less wear on the legs.
PWD - Michael Johnson explored the draft process this year as a R-So and got a grade of a 3rd round pick. Next year he's generally regarded across all draft prognosticators as the #1 DE prospect in college football. The dude is a physical freak, and scouts love that (Vernon Gholston and Gaines Adams in the past two years, for example).
Every single draft site for 2009 views Johnson as one of the top 15 or so players in the 2009 draft as a R-JR:
http://cfn.scout.com/2/750982.html
http://www.walterfootball.com/draft2009.php
http://www.nfldraftdog.com/Mock_Drafts/2009_nfl_mock_draft.htm
http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/7999670/2009-NFL-Mock-Draft
I've got no problem understanding how a shortish QB with a career completion percentage of 55% is a top 5 pick, even though he's a Dog (scouts love Stafford's arm strength above all else). I'm not so sure how UGa fans can't (or refuse to) see how MJ is the very definition of the speed edge rushers that NFL teams love - especially after the Giants success in the Super Bowl.
To be fair to ESPN, they have the Lions selecting GT DE Johnson. Given the lunacy of the Lions' draft strategy the last seven years or so, I'd say it's a pretty good prediction!
I'd hate to see both of them leave, but if Stafford has a monster year, I think he goes. This year's draft was very weak on QBs and a lot of teams will say they filled their needs, but I highly doubt that's true.
Knowshon is a different story for me. I'm sure he goes if he has another year like he had this year, but deep down, I think he'd reluctantly do it. The kid's a competitor and he wants to be a Heisman and Nat'l Championship winner.
Stafford is a little different. Again, if his junior year is monsterous, then he probably goes to if these early mocks are correct, but I think anything short of a Nat'l Championship will bring him back for his senior season.
Just my $.02 on the whole thing.
I don't see the point of a QB leaving early unless he can start right away on the team he goes to. That extra year of starter reps is crucial to a QB. It might depend on who would have his likely pick.
As for Knowshon, the only way I see him going two years early is if he wins the Heisman...then again I still have a hard time believing Herschel left early.
I think doing mock drafts a year in advance when a) we don't know what kind of seasons the kids will have and b) what the draft order will really be is pretty stupid and a waste of time.
Shortish?
Stafford is 6'3". He's prototype size wise.
I always thought Stafford was more like 6'1"
If that's not right and he's actually 6'3" at the combine, then he's an even bigger lock for a top 10 pick somewhere down the road.
Come on Nathan, let down that GT guard for a moment.
(Go Carson Newman)
Why would he lStaff leave early? Have you seen the other draft eligible QBs out there? He and Tebow will be THE two top QBs if they have good seasons and choose to come out. Being the #1 or #2 QB in a class means big big bucks....there's a lot of difference between a top 5 pick, a top 20 pick and a top 40 pick....difference is millions of dollars. If you know you're going to be the first or second QB chosen, and will likely go in the top 10, why wait one more year where scouts can see more things wrong and where you take more of a risk for injury?
Where's the 2008 draft coverage??? Curious about y'all's opinion on each Dawg's chances with his new team...
I am curious if anyone has the early 2008 draft from this time last year? That might give us a track record.
Did anyone have Chris Long being a top 5 pick at this time last year?
If Stafford is seen as one of the top QBs (and I will bet that he is not at the end of the year), then he will go. As noted by others, he stands to lose millions with a bad or even modest senior year. Brohm is a great example. Was this season worse than last year? The team was worse, but its defense was horrific.
As for Moreno, a 1500 yd year and he is gone.
There are very few folks who will stick around for a chance to win a Heisman (which means little in the NFL and might even be an albatross) or a national championship. I wonder if Jake Long of Michigan liked sticking around through this year? Or Chad Henne?
Fans love their teams more than the coaches or even the players do.
all i could find after a quick google search was that one year ago, Todd McShay on ESPN.com had Brian Brohm predicted as the number 1 pick. Had to pay to see the rest of his list so i decided not to.
Fans love the team more than players or coaches? Sometimes. But I think that's comparing apples and oranges. You offer me $50 million for my rooting rights and I'll support any team of your choosing!
You obviously haven't paid much attention to Micheal Johnson if you don't think he's a very high first round pick. The dude is a physical freak, super fast, and has an unbelievable work ethic.
I guess that's why its not your job to assess pro talent.
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