To get an idea for the strength of this out of conference (OCC) schedule, I looked at the average RPI for the last four years of our 15 non-conference opponents. (Note: I took the liberty of making some reasonable projections for the Pre-season NIT)
| Home: | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 4 Year Avg. |
| Virginia Tech | 52 | 34 | 146 | 112 | 86 |
| Missouri | 117 | 93 | 139 | 72 | 105 |
| NIT Round 4 (Projected UAB)* | 56 | 134 | 32 | 49 | 68 |
| Texas A&M Corpus Christi (260) | 260 | 80 | 201 | 173 | 179 |
| Wofford (195) | 195 | 296 | 288 | 227 | 252 |
| Kennesaw State | 324 | 276 | 249 | n/a | 283 |
| UNC A&T | 234 | 271 | 324 | 312 | 285 |
| SC Upstate | 306 | n/a | n/a | n/a | 306 |
| Presbyterian | 333 | n/a | n/a | n/a | 333 |
| TBD (NIT 3rd Round)* | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD |
| Away: | |||||
| Georgia Tech | 67 | 52 | 160 | 27 | 77 |
| Purdue (NIT Round 2)* | 45 | 44 | 174 | 180 | 111 |
| Western Kentucky | 39 | 97 | 54 | 75 | 66 |
| Neutral: | |||||
| Illinois (played in Chicago) | 103 | 29 | 14 | 2 | 37 |
| NIT 1st Round (EMU or Loyola Chicago)* | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD |
Pre-season NIT Notes:
- NIT 1st Round: The NIT will announce teams very soon, but it appears that we will face EMU or Loyola Chicago in Purdue's arena. Both teams typically post an RPI of 150-200. It's not a bad RPI game on a neutral court.
- NIT 2nd Round: We get Purdue assuming UGA and Purdue both beat their low major opponents.
- NIT 3rd Round: If we don't beat Purdue, we would very likely host Rounds 3 and 4. Round 3 would be a low major team like James Madison.
- NIT 4th Round: The two most likely "name" opponents for Round 4 would be UAB or Davidson. I projected the RPI based on UAB.
Overall Strength of Schedule Thoughts:
- As I said yesterday, we play a solid mix of Top 100 teams, and we really only play two teams are who are total locks to have sub-300 RPIs. In this age of escalating buyouts for low major RPI teams, it's a good schedule.
- Few "unbeatables" - Technically, there's no such thing as an "unbeatable" opponent. However, speaking realistically...we all know that last year's UGA squad was facing loooooooong odds with its trip to Wisconsin. The game at Purdue won't be easy, but the schedule is manageable...conceptually.
- We're going to miss Billy Humphrey and Sundiata Gaines very, very, very much.
(BTW - Barring a commitment from Favors, you likely won't see more than two more hoops articles per month from now til early November)
PWD
Georgia Sports Blog
8 comments:
Two posts per month? All that means is that this blog will retain its position as the dominant source of UGA hoops news in the global media.
Again, great analysis of the schedule. It's very solid. Maybe a little short on sizzle, but sizzle would have just gotten this squad burned. Walk before you run, etc.
It does make one pine for Billy Humphrey. I think there is a theory that Dustin Ware and Zack Swansey can be solid at the point. It's only a theory, but you hear an awful lot of good things about Ware, and the Swanz has a year of experience now.
But boy, shooting guard with Billy gone? There's no theory, only hope that somehow someone will step up. Hope is not a plan, but it is all we got at the 2. Oh Billy, where art thou?
Nice one Stick.
And Humphrey hurts, and I think losing Jacob hurts too. He'd have been a vital guy off the bench, had the game to create some offensively, and help at SF and PF. I think he could have made a difference in a few games this year, and been a part of good things going forward.
And teddy, I agree that it's a very good schedule, but there are 5 bottom feeders (A&M-CC, KenSt, SC-Up, Pres, NC A&T) on there I'd like to see reduced to 2 or 3 if possible. I'm not bashing the schedule, I love it. As I said before, I think this schedule will be a strength for us if we're in consideration for an invitation to dance in March. But it's not perfect. To paraphrase an old coach, "It's not what it's going to be, it's not what it's going to be, but it's a long way from where we were." Good schedule, but let's not stop trying to get better.
Damn it, that should read....
"It's not what it's going to be, it's not WHAT WE WANT IT to be, but it's a long way from where we were."
Damn it. Paul, where's the edit button when I need it.
I'm bummed about JJ, too, but that's a scratch, or at most a flesh wound, compared to the hacking off a limb that was the loss of Billy.
On the frontline, there are still four decent-at-worst options for the two post/big slots (AJ, Price, Thompkins and Barnes) and T Wood is solid at the wing, with Leslie and perhaps Zolaric to spell him. Losing JJ eliminates the margin for error, and means that there's no answer for an injury or a terrible year from an established player, but at least as of today we could be OK, even pretty darn good, across the frontline.
That's where the backcourt was with Billy -- thin, but OK if we are lucky. Now, plain old luck ain't enough at the 2 -- we need a miracle. Which is to say, a freshman who was not terribly highly recruited stepping up and getting it done from day one. It's not impossible -- little is, but it sure isn't likely.
PWD:
Nice job. Keep up the good work.
You, Stick, Hillbilly, Dawg44, Paint, GaCard, Highway 11 and others can visit my blog, DaugMan's Chronicles at
DaugMan.blogspot.com
Just added your feed to my reader, Daugman. Great blog.
Looks like Paul may have a challenger for being the worldwide leader in UGA hoops coverage.
I really like this schedule. Like stick said: solid. I think toughest ooc game is definately Purdue. If we win that game it will look good the further the season goes on, because I think they'll win the Big 10.
I love the game in Chicago vs Illinois (visibility, Big 10 vs. SEC, recruiting, etc.).
Am I stupid to think Ware is gonna surprise a lot of people sooner rather than later? I don't know maybe I am.
Oh and Daugman...great blog.
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