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August 6, 2008

UGA Basketball Schedule: Inside the RPI

(Preface: HUGE props to MemphisDog on the scheduling research help. He had most of the games figured out a few weeks ago based on message board research and other rumblings that he and I were hearing.)

To get an idea for the strength of this out of conference (OCC) schedule, I looked at the average RPI for the last four years of our 15 non-conference opponents. (Note: I took the liberty of making some reasonable projections for the Pre-season NIT)

Home: 2008 2007 2006 2005 4 Year Avg.
Virginia Tech 52 34 146 112 86
Missouri 117 93 139 72 105
NIT Round 4 (Projected UAB)* 56 134 32 49 68
Texas A&M Corpus Christi (260) 260 80 201 173 179
Wofford (195) 195 296 288 227 252
Kennesaw State 324 276 249 n/a 283
UNC A&T 234 271 324 312 285
SC Upstate 306 n/a n/a n/a 306
Presbyterian 333 n/a n/a n/a 333
TBD (NIT 3rd Round)* TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD






Away:




Georgia Tech 67 52 160 27 77
Purdue (NIT Round 2)* 45 44 174 180 111
Western Kentucky 39 97 54 75 66






Neutral:




Illinois (played in Chicago) 103 29 14 2 37
NIT 1st Round (EMU or Loyola Chicago)* TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD

Pre-season NIT Notes:
  • NIT 1st Round: The NIT will announce teams very soon, but it appears that we will face EMU or Loyola Chicago in Purdue's arena. Both teams typically post an RPI of 150-200. It's not a bad RPI game on a neutral court.

  • NIT 2nd Round: We get Purdue assuming UGA and Purdue both beat their low major opponents.

  • NIT 3rd Round: If we don't beat Purdue, we would very likely host Rounds 3 and 4. Round 3 would be a low major team like James Madison.

  • NIT 4th Round: The two most likely "name" opponents for Round 4 would be UAB or Davidson. I projected the RPI based on UAB.

Overall Strength of Schedule Thoughts:
  • As I said yesterday, we play a solid mix of Top 100 teams, and we really only play two teams are who are total locks to have sub-300 RPIs. In this age of escalating buyouts for low major RPI teams, it's a good schedule.

  • Few "unbeatables" - Technically, there's no such thing as an "unbeatable" opponent. However, speaking realistically...we all know that last year's UGA squad was facing loooooooong odds with its trip to Wisconsin. The game at Purdue won't be easy, but the schedule is manageable...conceptually.

  • We're going to miss Billy Humphrey and Sundiata Gaines very, very, very much.
Agree? Disagree?

(BTW - Barring a commitment from Favors, you likely won't see more than two more hoops articles per month from now til early November)

PWD
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