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October 11, 2011

SEC Bowl Projections

As we've hit the half way point of the season, here are some thoughts on SEC and BCS bowl projections.

National Title: Alabama vs. Oklahoma
Rose: Wisconsin vs. Stanford
Fiesta: Oklahoma State vs. Michigan/Nebraska
Sugar: LSU vs. Boise State
Orange: Georgia Tech vs. West Virginia

Comments: I have Bama over LSU simply by virtue of the home field advantage on Nov. 5th. I have Georgia Tech winning the ACC because they are tough to defend with only a week to prepare, and the weak ACC is begging them to win it.  Although, GT could slip out of that spot if Virgina Tech beats them.  Remember, VT has a bye week before facing the Yellow Jackets, and Paul Johnson's track record when a BCS team has more than 7 days to prepare can generously be described as "poor."  If the winner of Nebraska at Michigan has two losses or less, they'll get the Fiesta Bowl at large spot. A Big 12 flashback of OkSU and Nebraska would make great TV.

CapitalOne: Arkansas vs. Michigan/Nebraska
Outback: UGA vs. Penn State
Cotton: Auburn vs. Texas A&M
Chick-Fil-A: South Carolina vs. Virgina Tech
Gator: Florida vs. Michigan State
Music City:  Tennessee vs. Florida State
Liberty: Mississippi State vs. Houston
The Bowl in B'ham Nobody Watches: No SEC Team Eligible

Comments: In my projection, I have Georgia beating UF or AU, but not both. I have South Carolina making the SEC title game, but losing to Arkansas, Clemson and Alabama which might knock them down a slot in the bowl pecking order.  I think Tennessee and Miss State will both end up bowl eligible.  Vandy would need to beat Georgia, Tennessee or Wake Forest to have a shot at bowl eligibility.  That's not impossible, but it's not likely either.  As for Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl...I just don't have the stomach for putting Kansas State in that spot.



Anonymous said...

So you have SC winning the East with 3 SEC losses?


M'villeDawg said...

They would win the east with two losses (and hold tiebreaker edge over a 2 loss UGA) - in this scenario. The third loss would come from AL in the SECCG.

Pete Davis said...

Some fun at Vandy's expense:

Carlton said...

No, he has SC winning the East with 2 losses (to Auburn and Arkansas) with their 3rd loss coming vs Bama in the SECCG.

Kory said...

Question from Big 12 country...

What are your thought on Mizzou possibly to the SEC? Nice blog by the way, I just bookmarked it.

Paul Westerdawg said...

Kory - It would be a shame if that's the best we can do.

@Anon #1 - Not 3 losses. Two SEC losses and a loss to Bama in the title game.

Anonymous said...

PW, why are you even looking at this at the half way point of the season? I mean really, cmon. Is the season boring you so much that you have to look ahead to the end? PLUS, you even decided in this fantasy scenario that UGA doesnt have the brass to whip the shit out of Florida and Auburn. Get it together, lets focus on the now and not the hypothetical future.

Anonymous said...

I think you're giving the 'barn more credit than they deserve. With bama and lsu in bcs, ark should get cotton bid. Aub will lose to both bama and lsu, and likely UGA, so I don't think they make the cotton. Rest of it sounds reasonable, though. My guess is aub gets the gator or chick-fil-a bid. I think Dawgs end up in Florida: cap1, outback, based on sc finish. They will get nod if they hold on and get to the dome. But I don't think they will get there.

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