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November 12, 2012

SEC West Representative to the SEC Championship - Scenario Breakdown

The simplest and most likely answer is Alabama. All they have to do is win the Iron Bowl to clinch the West. Saban doesn't believe in trap games.

For discussion sake, however, there are other possibilities.  Right now Texas A&M and LSU are not mathematically eliminated.  Both have 2 losses. TAMU is 5-2, with their game against Missouri at home to end the season. LSU is 4-2, with Ole Miss visiting Baton Rouge this weekend, and the Tigers ending the regular season on the Friday after Thanksgiving at Arkansas.

With that in mind, let's go on a flight of fancy and say Alabama loses to Auburn. Besides the Intertubes melting and someone needing to keep sharp stuff away from Finebaum, here are the possible outcomes based on my understanding of the SEC divisional tie-break rules:

For Alabama to go to Atlanta: Have TAMU lose to Missouri AND LSU win out. If Alabama, LSU and TAMU end up in a three way tie, based on the third tiebreaker (division record), Alabama would be out because both of their losses would be in the division, sending LSU based on the head to head win over TAMU. If LSU loses one of their remaining games, but TAMU beats Missouri, TAMU would go based on Alabama's loss this past weekend.

For TAMU to go to Atlanta:  Beat Missouri and have LSU lose one of their games. If they end up in a three way tie, LSU goes because Alabama would be eliminated, then they would go to the head to head, which LSU won.

For LSU to go to Atlanta: Win both games AND end in a three way tie. There is no scenario that has them going without a three way tie.

All the above scenarios also assume Texas A&M and Alabama beat their respective patsies this weekend. Alabama controls their own fate. However, if Auburn gives Chizik a going away present huge upset, utter chaos.

TD

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