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March 17, 2013

The SEC and the NCAA Tourney

We know for certain Ole Miss is going. We know Florida is going. We can presume Missouri is going.

Where does that leave Tennessee, Alabama ('Bama ain't making the tourney with 60 RPI and no top 50 wins/two sub 150 losses), and Kentucky? For my money, the NIT.  We'll know in a couple of hours, but I have to think the SEC is only getting three teams into the NCAA Basketball Tourney.

Tennessee - The salient stats here are as follows: Two losses to Georgia. They have a near-60 RPI and their SOS isn't that great either.

Kentucky - The salient stats here are as follows: Loss to Georgia and a loss to Vandy. Beyond that, their numbers look just like Tennessee's. For the record, that looks just like UNC-Charlotte's numbers.

Charlotte plays in a much better conference than Kentucky and Tennessee. I just don't see how you can let one team in over the other, especially considering the upset in the conference tourney combined with upsets going down around the country. And their numbers look just like Charlotte's.

So, where do the other teams go?

  • Florida will play as a 3 or a 4. If they are a three, they end up in Indiana's draw (the weakest 3 seed). If they are a four, they end up in whichever of Kansas/Louisville/Miami/Duke/Gonzaga/Ohio State is the fourth #1 seed. 
  • Missouri might play as low as an 11 and as high as a 7. If I had to guess, I'd go with Lunardi's 8, but who knows. They are a perfect team to move around to get some parity and balance out brackets.
  • Ole Miss isn't much better than an 11 seed. They could be a 12 seed, but I don't see them as an 10. With only three top 50 wins (2 over Missouri and one over Florida) the only positive going for them. They have a terrible SOS and two bad losses.
So, you think UK, Tennessee or Alabama (ain't happening) will make it?



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