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November 13, 2013

Georgia upsetting Auburn

Georgia holds the key to the SEC West, and if a one loss SEC team would get into the BCS National Championship game. Not that there aren't people forgetting that Georgia isn't Arkansas or Tennessee. When you think about Georgia's defensive strengths, and look at what Auburn struggles with stopping, you have to think the line of -3.5 (essentially a home team push) is right.

Thinking about what Auburn does defensively:
Auburn D stats:
Total D: 394 ypg (66th)
Passing D: 237 ypg (80th)
Rushing D: 156 ypg (59th)
Scoring D: 20ppg (22nd)

Why the disparity in scoring D vs. total D?  This:

2013 National Leaders Opponent Red Zone Conversions - All Games through 11/12/2013

NameGAttemptsScoresScore %TDTD %FGFG %
4Utah State10332575.761442.421133.33
8North Texas10291758.621344.83413.79

Auburn doesn't let teams score TDs from inside the red zone. They've only given up three passing TDs from the red zone on 31 attempts. They only allow 2.67 yards per carry against the run inside the red zone. If we are to win, we need to score on big plays and not get bogged down inside the 20. Auburn is in ranked in the high 90s in giving up 10+ and 20+ yard plays. We've got to leverage that with TDs.

Getting Conley back would be huge. I also suspect Carter and Rumph will play into that as well.

I have to admit, I'm digging this Georgia as an underdog thing. For some reason, instead of going in with dread, I go in with hope. Probably something I should bring up with Dr. Goldstein....



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