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February 23, 2014

Dawgs are two games up on the world for third in SEC

Meanwhile, in Lexington
By Jhartenfeld (Own work) , via Wikimedia Commons
After we get the road win at South Carolina, the conference went crazy. LSU, Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Missouri lost. Texas A&M, Vandy, and Arkansas won. That means seven teams are tied for fourth at 7-7. With four games to play, Georgia has a two game lead on those seven teams. Without getting into tie breakers, we are in fairly good shape.

In a day when the home teams struggled in conference, South Carolina did their part against Georgia's defense in the second half (as an aside, this defense has been the on thing that has been consistent about Mark Fox's teams). Give Kenny Gaines credit for his 27 points and the Dawgs credit for putting together a 16-1 run at the start of the second half, too.

In Oxford, Marshall Henderson scored 22 first half points against Florida. He scored zero in the second half as Florida pulled out the win. Texas A&M needed overtime, and a gift missed free throw at the end of regulation, to beat Tennessee. Alabama took down Missouri in Tuscaloosa. Vandy and Arkansas managed to not lose to the dregs of the conference on the road.

So the Dawgs have wins over LSU, Missouri, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Arkansas. We have losses against Tennessee and Vandy. We still have games against Missouri at home, Arkansas on the road, and LSU on the road to end the season.

We can still finish as high as second (very unlikely) and as low as 10th. After this season, exactly zero of the scenarios would shock me.


Mr. Sanchez said...

Question for you and Paul, are we an NIT lock if we finish in 3rd or 4th in the SEC?

Alkaline said...

Even if we finish 10th that means we receive a single bye past the first round of the SEC tournament. That in itself would have been surprising to know after the OoC schedule was completed this year. But I think finishing as low as 10th is also about as unlikely as finishing 2nd even if it is technically possible. That would mean that not only did we lose out from here (including to MSU at home) but also that no one out of Ole Miss, UT, Vandy, or A&M loses more than one game the rest of the season.

Dawg in Beaumont said...

Not as astute as Paul on these things, but I think we'd be very likely an NIT team if we finish 3rd or 4th. This wouldn't be BECAUSE we are the 3rd or 4th team in a bad SEC, but because of what it means our record would be. To finish 3rd or 4th we'd likely need to close out the year 2-2 or better, which means we'd be 17-13 overall. 1 win in Atlanta would seal it IMO (18-14 overall RPI of maybe high 70's). Finishing 17-13 then losing the first game in Atlanta would make things more cloudy, but I still think we'd get in the NIT at 17-14. First NIT game would definitely be on the road in that scenario.

TylerDawgden said...

If we go 3-1 and win Friday, we'll be at 19-13. Depending on the wins, we'll be in the lower 70s-upper 60s. I think we are an NIT lock in that situation. If we go 2-2 and lose our first SEC tourney game, that is much harder to say.

I'll do an NIT chances post after the Missouri game.

TylerDawgden said...

Yeah, I didn't work out all the scenarios. I think 7th is the very worst we can finish.

MikeSonu said...

I was the same question you asked.

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