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March 1, 2011

SEC Tournament Scenarios

Georgia can get as high as the #2 Seed in the SEC East. However, it requires all of the following to happen:
    1. UGA winning out to finish 10-6 in the East
    2. Vandy losing to UK tonight and losing to Florida to finish 9-7.
    3. UK beating Vandy and losing at Tennessee to finish 9-7.
It doesn't matter what UT does against South Carolina in the above scenario.

UGA can get the #3 Seed in the East; however, it requires all of the following:
    1. UGA winning out to finish 10-6
    2. Vandy beating UK. It doesn't matter what happens in the Vandy vs. UF game because UGA will lose the tie breaker to Vandy anyway.
In the scenario above, it doesn't matter what happens to Tennessee in either of their games. There's probably another scenario, but it's much less obvious.

Basically, Georgia will lose the head to head against Vandy, UK and UT due to SEC Tie Breakers. Also, we'll come in last in a three way tie to any of those teams due to SEC Tie Breaker rules. We must win out.

If Georgia goes 10-6, we can still get stuck with the 4 seed if Vandy goes 1-1 and UK wins out. we finish 3rd in a three way tie.

Technically speaking, RollBamaRoll says our seeding probability is:
    65.2% -- 4 seed
    16.9% -- 3 seed
    15.5% -- 5 seed
    2.4% -- 2 seed
He explains his methodology at the link. Bottom line...if we go to 9-7, we're looking at a 4 or 5 seed.

See Also:
-- UK tiebreaker scenarios - John Clay



Anonymous said...

The biggest thing about the UT at SC game tonight is that a UT loss would ensure that we don't drop to a 5 seed as a result of Saturday's games.

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