Marquette is a must win for Georgia hoops

If UGA is to get to the NCAA tournament, we need to have a win tomorrow. Even if Marquette turns out to be a bottom tier Big East team, beating a Big East team will get Georgia noticed. Steve Wojciechowski, former Duke standout and Associate Head Coach, is their head coach. By the way, they are projected to be a bubble NCAA team. In that regard, this game is a must win for the Golden Eagles, too.

To date, they've gone 5-2, with a close loss to Pitt and a blowout loss to Michigan in the 2K classic at Madison Square Garden. They beat Howard by 32 at home. Coming into the game they are currently at 38th in KenPom. Georgia is 60th, being held down by adjusted offensive numbers and tempo (which is an adjusted measure of successful offensive possessions).

Marquette loves to get up and down the court. They have strong guard play, with Jujuan Johnson and Haanif Cheatam averaging double digit ppg. Center Luke Fischer is also averaging double digit ppg. Fox loves defensive basketball and this game will test our ability to handle an offense that can score inside and outside. In both of Marquette's loses, they were held to fewer possessions and got fewer good looks, forcing the ball into the hands of players other than Johnson, Cheatam, and Fischer.

Speaking of, when you look over Marquette's stats, there is one guy to keep an eye on: Kaitin Reinhardt. He's a graduate transfer from Southern Cal. While he's fourth on the team in points per game at 8.8 coming off the bench, there is something else that stands out: he's third on the team in shots taken, and second in 3pt attempts. Combine that with his being 8th on the team at 3pt% at 25% (and only 27.6% total), and you can see place that Mark Fox would want to force Marquette into. If Reinhardt is jacking long range jumpers with abandon, that is good sign that Fox's game plan is working.

Tip is 2pm tomorrow on ESPNU.

T

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Homework: The NCAA is creating another Council

Bloggers...Change is coming. [Insert GoT image] @BernieDawg @TylerDawgden http://t.co/rdvlo8ie1L
— dawgontap (@dawgontap) April 24, 2014

Fine. I have a simple reaction to that:

Nothing has ever been accomplished by creating another bureaucratic committee.
- Ron Swanson (probably)

However, I will say this is the first step in what I think will become some sort of Super Division I or FBS or whatever the hell it is we are supposed to call it for the next five years. And it has been coming. I've long held the position that the NCAA is only useful as an organization as long as it is useful to the members of that organization. That is how member services organizations work.

Now, the NCAA is trying it's damnedest to keep those members with the biggest pies happy, because without those members, the NCAA is not very relevant. Or solvent. Outside of the parents, purists, and individual school fans, anyone really care who the NAIA champions are in any sport?

Which gets me to basketball. Part of what has kept the NCAA going, and what may actually save it, has been conference realignment and how those changes work with basketball. Now, with the Big East/AAC spin offs, a major impediment has been resolved. Without looking at contracts and whatnot, it isn't hard to see those Gang of Five conferences deciding to put on their own basketball tournament, or build an organization to host it for them (for a more thorough treatment, see the BCS). Actually, building an organization to host it for them makes the most sense, as they could conceivably invite Big East or AAC or whatever conference teams they want. Then it'd be back on the schools to decide what tourney they want in, like it was 60 years ago.

Any doubt the WWL would love bankroll a tourney that would feature 32 teams from the ACC, Pac-12, B1.5G, Big 12 and SEC, plus select other teams? Do you think CBS/Turner would shell out billions for a 64 team tourney that is crown jeweled by Wichita State and St. Marys?

Again, I'll grant the devil in the details are bound in contracts and membership agreements, neither of which I have the time or inclination to find and analyse. However, if you think this is about student athletes or nimbleness, I've got some nice property to talk to you about. The NCAA has until the next negotiation period for that basketball tourney contract, say 8 or so years, to figure it out.

Because if they don't, those Gang of Five conferences are likely to take their collective balls and go play elsewhere.

TD
See also:
- Knight Commission recommends Playoff money go to NCAA
- Go home NCAA, you're drunk

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Why the 16 Team Mega Conferences won't happen Part 2

Simply put, I don't believe the Big 10 can make the TV revenue numbers work. To grossly oversimplify the math, the Big 10 members currently pull in $22 million each. That's $242 million total. To move to 16 teams and keep the per team revenue the same, you'd need to increase the total size of the pie to $352 million.

You would think that risk adverse university presidents wouldn't make a move that risky without thinking they could increase their yearly revenue share by at least 20 percent. That requires increasing the Big 10's total revenue to over $422 million.

That's a 75 percent increase in total revenue for the Big 10 simply by adding teams like Pitt, Syracuse, Missouri, Rutgers and UConn. Why not mention Notre Dame? Because if they could get Notre Dame, they wouldn't keep adding teams.

TV Revenue is based on eyeballs. Let's look at some numbers.

• Currently there are about 303 million people in the US.
  
• The Big 10 state by state footprint includes 67 million people. That's 22% of the nation's population.
  
• Adding Missouri, UConn, Pitt, Syracuse and Rutgers would increase their coverage by 37.5 million homes. Or about 56 percent.

Why are those numbers important? Well...I posted population...not number of households but the above percentages still give you an idea of the size of the footprint a 16 team league would get you. And again...there is no need to take on the risk of going to 16 teams if Notre Dame wants to be the 12th. In that case, you just stop at 12.

But I digress. About 3 weeks ago, Dennis Dodd pointed out this math:

Cable television analyst Mike Reynolds of Multichannel News estimated that the Big Ten is getting a subscription fee of 70 cents per month per subscriber within that eight-state Big Ten region. Outside of that area, he says, the fee drops to 10 cents.

Take the state of Missouri as an example of the profit potential for the Big Ten. The state had an estimated 2.2 million households in 2008. Let's assume that almost all of those have satellite or cable or both. If the Big Ten added the University of Missouri, it could potentially increase those subscriber fees from 10 cents per person to 70 cents. That's the difference between a gross of $220,000 and $1.54 million per month.

*UPDATE: I blew the math big time. Here's the better math. Adding Missouri changes the Big 10 revenue opportunity to $15 million in the state of Missouri. However, they need to add $22 million for the league to break even. The math isn't terrible for the Big 10 in theory (unlike what I wrote in the 2 paragraphs I'm striking below). But it's not clear that residents of New York, Connecticut and New Jersey will put the same value on the Big 10 Network that residents of Michigan and Ohio do.

Ok. So, adding Missouri changes the Big 10 Network's revenue opportunity in Missouri by roughly $1.3 million? Again, I don't get it. Missouri needs to add $22 million to the Big Ten pie to pay for themselves. Why is adding $1.3 million in net new TV fees a good deal for the rest of the league's media partners?

To make the math work, you'd basically have to double the value of the TV deal in the *existing 8 states* to $1.40 per household *and* double the non-Big 10 states fees to $0.20 per household to get to numbers that make sense for expansion.

As point of comparison, the NFL Network charges Comcast $0.40-0.45 per household (update: per month) for viewers of the most important sport in the United States (as of 2009). That's down from the $0.70 asking price that the NFL Network put in front of Comcast.

Now...can you get the massive revenue needed if Notre Dame is one of the 16? Maybe. But like I said earlier. Why go to 16, if you get Notre Dame in the fold. You're in a less risky position to just stop at 12.

Like I said...I don't think the 16 team Super Conference is coming. Not right in the next 2 years anyway.

PWD

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Big East Coaches Conference Call Gets Hacked

The Big East basketball coaches conference call was hacked into, and miscreants had their way with the coaches. The Big Lead has the audio from the call and the details. It's a riot. If you're at work, listen to this with the headphones on. My favorite part is the flustered PR hack trying to manage the implosion.

PWD

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Confirmed: TE coach Johnson to WVU

West Virginia University Head Football Coach Bill Stewart has announced the hiring of the fourth former Mountaineer standout player and coach, David Johnson, today, as the offensive line coach.

From Scout.com

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World's Largest Dingle-Berry

Memo to WVU's Rich Rodriguez: Consider assigned seats during games.

[Pic:West Virginia's Dingle-Berry hang together.]

HT: Deadspin

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