The NCAA is falling apart

Not really, but if Dan Wolken think it won't, it is only a matter of time before it does.

Schultz saying what I’ve said for a long time - leaving NCAA is an empty threat. Scare tactic that is completely impractical.
— Dan Wolken (@DanWolken) August 7, 2014

This is in response to the NCAA passing the autonomy proposal. I am probably closer to John Infante, who thinks it is only a matter of time before the NCAA dies, than Wolken. Why? Infante put it best:

Much will be said in the near future of how Division I was preserved, how the “big tent” is still intact, how this will provide stability and a foundation for the long-term. But if the people in Division I will not agree to keep up the pursuit of the ideal or even prop up that facade that all Division I athletes have a similar experience, the whole point of being one division is gone. 

I think it is actually the organization will become obsolete to the members, not the other away around.
TD

 

 

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Homework: The NCAA is creating another Council

Bloggers...Change is coming. [Insert GoT image] @BernieDawg @TylerDawgden http://t.co/rdvlo8ie1L
— dawgontap (@dawgontap) April 24, 2014

Fine. I have a simple reaction to that:

Nothing has ever been accomplished by creating another bureaucratic committee.
- Ron Swanson (probably)

However, I will say this is the first step in what I think will become some sort of Super Division I or FBS or whatever the hell it is we are supposed to call it for the next five years. And it has been coming. I've long held the position that the NCAA is only useful as an organization as long as it is useful to the members of that organization. That is how member services organizations work.

Now, the NCAA is trying it's damnedest to keep those members with the biggest pies happy, because without those members, the NCAA is not very relevant. Or solvent. Outside of the parents, purists, and individual school fans, anyone really care who the NAIA champions are in any sport?

Which gets me to basketball. Part of what has kept the NCAA going, and what may actually save it, has been conference realignment and how those changes work with basketball. Now, with the Big East/AAC spin offs, a major impediment has been resolved. Without looking at contracts and whatnot, it isn't hard to see those Gang of Five conferences deciding to put on their own basketball tournament, or build an organization to host it for them (for a more thorough treatment, see the BCS). Actually, building an organization to host it for them makes the most sense, as they could conceivably invite Big East or AAC or whatever conference teams they want. Then it'd be back on the schools to decide what tourney they want in, like it was 60 years ago.

Any doubt the WWL would love bankroll a tourney that would feature 32 teams from the ACC, Pac-12, B1.5G, Big 12 and SEC, plus select other teams? Do you think CBS/Turner would shell out billions for a 64 team tourney that is crown jeweled by Wichita State and St. Marys?

Again, I'll grant the devil in the details are bound in contracts and membership agreements, neither of which I have the time or inclination to find and analyse. However, if you think this is about student athletes or nimbleness, I've got some nice property to talk to you about. The NCAA has until the next negotiation period for that basketball tourney contract, say 8 or so years, to figure it out.

Because if they don't, those Gang of Five conferences are likely to take their collective balls and go play elsewhere.

TD
See also:
- Knight Commission recommends Playoff money go to NCAA
- Go home NCAA, you're drunk

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Is the Pac-12 on the verge of unseating the SEC?

As we venture into Knoxville, let's not over look what happened in week three to Tennessee:

Final

Tennessee 14

(2-1, 0-1 away)

(2) Oregon 59

(3-0, 2-0 home)

Coverage: ABC

3:30 PM ET, September 14, 2013

Autzen Stadium, EUGENE, OR

		1	2	3	4	T
	TENN	7	0	0	7	14
#2	ORE	10	28	21	0	59

Top Performers

Passing: M. Mariota (ORE) - 456 YDS, 4 TD

Rushing: D. Thomas (ORE) - 13 CAR, 86 YDS, 1 TD

Receiving: J. Mundt (ORE) - 5 REC, 121 YDS, 2 TD

And it wasn't that close.

Still, to use it as some sort of proof the Pac-12 is catching the SEC takes a pretty big leap, if you ask me. Yet, that is what Paul Myerberg did in the USA Today.

Let me say, I'm a fan of Myerberg. He is (usually) even handed and level headed. However this isn't his best work. Especially when Exhibit A for his thesis is this:

Oregon's near-flawless win against a blueblood SEC program serves as a microcosm of the Pac-12's recent growth

I guess that is one way to look at it. Or you could say that the best team in the Pac-12 did exactly what they should have done at home against the hopelessly over matched 13th best team in the SEC. Does anyone think there would be a different outcome if Alabama played Washington State in Tuscaloosa, especially considering the Cougars lost to the 9th or 10th best team in the SEC in Auburn opening weekend?

I get what Myerberg is saying, and he is right. The Pac-12 is the best conference to challenge the SEC from top to bottom. However, when you look at the two conferences side by side, I'd say they have a ways to go:

NCAA Men's Football - Southeastern (2013-2014) Conf. Ranking: 1    Conf. SOS Rank: 1 Overall Recard: 43-18    Non-Conf Record: 32-7

Only games against Division I opponents are counted. Rankings update every 5 mins. Last updated - Wed Oct 2 10:01:07 PDT 2013

Rank		Southeastern	Conf	All	Index	SOS Rk	SOS
West Division
	1	Alabama	2-0	4-0	50.20	7	60.67
	7	Texas A&M	1-1	4-1	44.09	9	60.22
	16	LSU	1-1	4-1	38.02	25	57.03
	34	Mississippi	1-1	3-1	28.10	65	54.02
	51	Auburn	1-1	3-1	23.14	12	58.66
	62	Mississippi St.	0-1	2-2	21.83	73	53.61
	72	Arkansas	0-1	3-2	21.05	45	55.34
East Division
	6	Georgia	2-0	3-1	45.20	1	64.44
	11	South Carolina	1-1	3-1	41.88	17	57.68
	14	Florida	2-0	3-1	39.81	23	57.26
	24	Missouri	0-0	4-0	33.06	47	55.24
	50	Vanderbilt	0-2	3-2	23.62	192	45.98
	64	Tennessee	0-1	3-2	21.66	48	55.16
	113	Kentucky	0-1	1-3	16.65	21	57.30

NCAA Men's Football - Pacific-12 (2013-2014) Conf. Ranking: 2    Conf. SOS Rank: 2 Overall Recard: 37-12    Non-Conf Record: 29-4

Only games against Division I opponents are counted. Rankings update every 5 mins. Last updated - Wed Oct 2 10:01:07 PDT 2013

Rank		Pacific-12	Conf	All	Index	SOS Rk	SOS
South Division
	12	UCLA	0-0	3-0	41.09	142	49.36
	31	Arizona St.	1-1	3-1	28.82	54	54.66
	32	Arizona	0-1	3-1	28.65	8	60.61
	33	Utah	0-1	3-1	28.33	108	51.29
	59	USC	0-2	3-2	22.43	66	53.97
	82	Colorado	0-1	2-1	20.06	61	54.11
North Division
	2	Oregon	1-0	4-0	47.19	120	50.70
	4	Stanford	2-0	4-0	46.16	53	54.69
	18	Washington	1-0	4-0	37.04	52	54.72
	35	Oregon St.	2-0	4-1	28.05	125	50.27
	66	Washington St.	1-1	3-2	21.54	15	57.97
	94	California	0-1	1-3	18.91	2	64.28

Looking over the SOS numbers, only two SEC teams, Vandy and Mississippi State, has played a schedule below the top 50, with Georgia (1), Alabama (7), and Texas A&M (9) all playing top ten schedules. In the Pac-12, only three teams have played a top 50 schedule, led by California (2) and Arizona (8) in the top ten. 

Oregon has played the 120th toughest schedule this season. 

I get Myerberg's point: The Pac-12 has the financial resources, a commissioner who gets what it takes to brand the conference, programs willing to devote the resources to the kind of excellence it takes to be national players, and two legitimate national championship contenders. The Pac-12 may well end up with a national championship team this season. However none of that means the Pac-12 has passed the SEC in terms of top to bottom quality, national consciousness, or ability to field compelling match-ups through the season. 

TD

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