Georgia Bulldog Preview (finally)

I struggled with how to write this, and I ended up with an approach of looking at:

• What should be better this year
  
• What will likely be worse
  
• What will be more or less the same
  
• Hoping for the best

What’s better this year:
– Run Defense: Georgia had its worst run defense of the Mark Richt era in 2005. After allowing an average of 108 yards per game on the ground the prior four years, UGA gave up 143 yards/game in 2005.

The drop-off was caused by endless injuries to Kedric Golston, Gerald Anderson and Ray Gant that left UGA thin and feeble at DT. Additionally, injuries to Tony Taylor and Brandon Miller took away the signature speed and tackling of the Georgia linebacker corps.


Jeff Owens. Image georgiadogs.com

With the last year's emergence of Jeff Owens, the progress of man-child Kade Weston and the new found health of Dale Dixson, UGA has more options along the interior DL to compliment a still gimpy Ray Gant. Ricardo Crawford and Geno Atkins combine to give UGA more depth than years past. Best of all, the linebacking unit is healthier this year, and there is more speed available. Assuming the Dawgs can maintain some modest level of health, the run defense should be dramatically improved.

What’s the same / break even:
– Run Offense: Georgia was #3 in the SEC in rushing yards in 2005; however, we seemed to drift away from the running game at critical times. Thomas Brown continues to improve, and necessity will force the Dawgs to run the ball more this year. The center position should experience a big upgrade with Nick Jones vs. the two-headed blow backward tandem of Ryan and Russ. The tackles are about break even vs. last year, but the loss of Max Jean-Gilles at Guard is huge for the running game. Overall, I’d consider the running game to be a wash vs. last year in terms of talent. The personnel is there to run the ball better, but if we can’t pass the ball the stats might not look as impressive. Break even.


Thomas Brown needs the rock! (image: Jim Hipple)

What’s Worse:
– Passing Offense: UGA finished #2 in the SEC in passing in 2005. DJ Shockley was the 2nd best QB in the SEC last year behind Jay Cutler. Joe Tereshinski might be the SEC’s 6th or 7th best QB this year, and all pipe dreams to the contrary Matt Stafford isn’t going to beat him out from 3rd on the depth chart. The scenario that results in a Stafford start has UGA doing so badly under JT3 that we’re in the Peach Bowl anyway. The WR/TE corp loses 3 of the top 4 returning pass catchers in Bailey, McClendon and Pope. On the bright side, Mo Mass should be better. Huge downgrade from last year.


Who's kidding who. These guys don't grow on trees.

– Pass Defense: Demario Minter, Tim Jennings and Greg Blue will be drawing an NFL payday this year. While a more mature Paul Oliver may end up being a break even or upgrade over Minter, replacing Jennings will be tough. Greg Blue was often lost against the play action pass so having Kelin Johnson/CJ Byrd back there with the ball in the air won’t be as much of a downgrade as some think. The pressure from Charles Johnson and Quentin Moses will make our DBs look better than they are early in the season. This area is a minor downgrade, but not by as much as the media is making out.


We'll miss Blue, but more against the run than pass.

Hoping for the Best:
– Special Teams: Brandon Coutu, Gordon Ely-Kelso and Thomas Flowers return for Georgia a little older and a little wiser. The marked improvement will HOPEFULLY come in the area of kickoff returns. UGA has been pathetic in this area since Fred Gibson was taken off the kickoff return team in 2002. Tony Ball is bringing a new single man return system to Georgia from Virginia Tech. Hopefully a little Beamer Ball will rub off on this unit and take it to the next level. At worst, it’s slightly above break even, but the potential is there for soooooo much more. (Oh yeah, and let's not fall for any more fake punts)


Goooood times. Image: Jim Hipple

– Defensive Play Calling: Brian Van Gorder improved by leaps and bounds as a play caller and schemer from 2001 to 2002. The poorly designed blitzes and struggles against balanced offense were replaced by a punishing elite unit after the 2001 season. Hopefully, Martinez learned similar lessons after his debut 2005 season. The game plan vs. WVU was an all-time nut job. Putting 6 men in the box against a run dominate offenses was puzzling. The near total lack of blitzing vs. UF was also bizarre given the success that Bama, UT and LSU had with the blitz against Leak (SC also used it well, but that game was after ours). It was like we didn’t watch film before those two losses. If we get more aggressive and scheme smarter this year, our entire defensive unit could leap forward.


Riddle: Who has two thumbs and didn't blitz Chris Leak?

The Schedule:
– The Good News: With the exception of the South Carolina game, the schedule starts fairly slow and builds over a period of time. This gives our youth/inexperience at positions like DB, QB and WR a chance to develop. If we can get past the South Carolina game with a win, we should be 5-0 going up against a UT team with more flaws and questions than we have. Mark Schlabach said that the SEC East will be decided at the Cocktail Party. That’s probably true.

My prediction is 9-3. If we stay healthy along the OL, get smart play from the QB and avoid the dropped passes of the past, we could win the East or better. If we lose Nick Jones, Dan Inman, Moses, Charles Johnson or Paul Oliver, we’re looking at less than 9 wins.

Unless we win the SEC, I think we’re in the Peach Bowl this year. More on that later.

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