SEC Bowl Predictions

The Bowl Picture is driven by ticket sales, tourism and the old boy system as much or more than by record in many cases. With that in mind, here are some thoughts.


Auburn's Man of Iron (Image: SECSports.com)
Sugar – Auburn
Bad news for Auburn…the SEC’s predicted champ has rarely won the conference over the past 10 years. The good news for Auburn…they’re exceptionally talented, deep, well coached and the schedule is in their favor. The winner of the LSU/Auburn game is probably in the Sugar. There’s a chance for two SEC teams to make the BCS, but it’s not likely given the new rules designed to protect Notre Dame and the non-BCS schools. (note: yeah, I know this pick is in direct conflict with my 1st blog poll ballot where I had LSU over AU, but the more I think about Auburn the more I think it's their year. I'll probably flip flop them in next week's ballot)


A rare moment without pointing
Capital One – Florida
The Gators have only been to the CapOne/Citrus once in the past 8 years (Jan. 1, 2000). However, the Gators have bowled in their home state 7 of the past 9 years. If Meyer doesn’t win the SEC (which he won’t given his schedule), expect them to stay close to home again to guarantee a sellout.


Enjoy the view from the outside because UGA may never set foot in here again
Cotton – LSU
The Tigers have only gone to the Cotton Bowl once in the past 40 years (2003). Auburn has only been once…ever. The Cotton would love to have either set of Tigers, and both teams should be exceptional this year. The only way UGA ever gets a Cotton Bowl birth would require LSU and Auburn both being in the BCS, Florida being in the Citrus and both Bama and Arkansas sucking hind teet. A scenario that Mark Schlabach predicts for this year. I'll believe it when I see it.


Australian for Fat
Outback – South Carolina or Tennessee
The winner of the SC vs. UT game likely ends up here. I don’t think the Vols can go from complete and utter disarray to the SEC East title in one year, and both SC and UT have about 6 wins already baked into their schedule. First team to 8 wins makes this bowl. Gamecock fans get so few bowl trips that they always travel well. The Vols have only been to the Outback Bowl once (1993).


First draft of ad campaign?
Chick-Fil-A Peach – Georgia or South Carolina
The Dawgs have been to the Outback Bowl three of the past nine seasons. Four in 10 seasons seems unlikely. Barring a match-up with Michigan or Ohio State (who’s pegged for much bigger venues this post-season), I can’t see enough fan interest to get UGA into the Outback. It would take an act of Congress to get UGA into the Cotton, and the Citrus will crap themselves to get Urban Renewal. That just sort of leaves us with Sugar or Peach.

Plus, there’s a great chance that FSU will end up here. Richt vs. Bowden II would make a great TV story. Plus, it’s unlikely that we would see the Vols make their 3rd trip here in the past 6 years. However, an FSU vs. UT rematch of the ’98 title game isn’t a bad story line either.


Also known as the Glen Mason Invitational
Music City – Tennessee
God wiling the Vols will end up here so that Spurrier can update his joke to, “You can’t spell Music City without UT.” Fulmer’s gang could do worse, but it’s hard to see them doing much better than here or the Outback.


Shreveport in December
Independence – Bama or Arkansas
Winner of the Sept. 23rd Bama vs. Arkansas game has the inside track with the first one to 7 wins getting this game. The Tide has 5 games that look like lock wins (Hawaii, Vandy, ULM, FIU and Duke). They also play Ole Miss and Mississippi State. I like their chances at making this game or possibly the Music City Bowl. Arkansas needs to get McFadden and Casey Dick healthy….soon.


Best thing about the Liberty Bowl…Fat Elvis
Liberty Bowl – Bama or Arkansas
There must be lights burning brighter somewhere
Got to be birds flying higher in a sky more blue
If I can dream of a better bowl
Where all my brothers walk hand in hand
Tell me why, oh why, oh why cant my dream come true.
– “If I can Dream.” – Elvis

The first year of the Liberty Bowl’s SEC tie-in. We'll get something along the lines of Arkansas vs. Memphis or Houston (a nice SWC rematch?). If Mississippi State beats South Carolina in Week 1, they can start dreaming about bowling. However, it would take a victory over the Gamecocks, a season ending win over Ole Miss and a heap of luck to get them into the mix for a bowl.

All that said:
If the SEC could put a second team into the BCS, all bowls below the Citrus could shake out differently. However, since the BCS went into effect in 1998 the SEC has only secured 3 of the 16 at-large spots, and we haven’t landed an at-large spot since 2001. The Big 10 has secured 5 of the available slots, and the ACC has never secured an at-large spot.

How far off base do you think I am?

PWD

Other Resources for Bowl and SEC Previews:

• SEC Predictions - ABH
  
• ESPN's Bowl predictions
  
• SEC at a Glance - ABH
  
• Florida Dreams SEC Title - Mobile Register
  
• Seeking Answers for College Football Season - Nola.com

PWD

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