Jerry Palm likes UGA

So much for Tennessee for SEC Champion....

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF
BOWL	DATE	LOCATION	MATCHUP	PREDICTION
Championship Bowl	Jan. 9	Tampa, Fla.	Semifinal winners	TBD
Fiesta Bowl	Dec. 31	Glendale, Ariz.	Semifinal	Oklahoma vs. Notre Dame
Peach Bowl	Dec. 31	Atlanta, Ga.	Semifinal	Clemson vs. Alabama

Nothing too out of line there. Seems like safe picks, right? Then he drops the rest of the Selection Committee Bowl games:

SELECTION COMMITTEE BOWL GAMES
BOWL	DATE	LOCATION	MATCHUP	PREDICTION
Sugar Bowl	Jan. 2	New Orleans, La.	Big 12 vs SEC	Okla. State vs. LSU
Rose Bowl	Jan. 2	Pasadena, Calif.	Big Ten vs Pac-12	Ohio State vs. Stanford
Cotton Bowl	Jan. 2	Arlington, Tex.	At-large vs. At-large	Iowa vs. Houston
Orange Bowl	Dec. 30	Miami, Fla.	ACC vs. Big Ten/SEC/ND	Florida State vs. Georgia

That's right, he's got Georgia in Miami. If this comes true, wait for Georgia fans freak about how this is another crappy Florida bowl game.

Don't worry UT friends, Palm has you playing on New Years Day in Orlando:

OTHER BOWL GAMES
BOWL	DATE	LOCATION	MATCHUP	PREDICTION
Outback Bowl	Jan. 2	Tampa, Fla.	Big Ten vs. SEC	Michigan vs. Ole Miss
TaxSlayer Bowl	Dec. 31	Jacksonville, Fla.	ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC	North Carolina vs. Florida
Citrus Bowl	Dec. 31	Orlando, Fla.	ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC	Michigan State vs. Tennessee

Liberty Bowl	Dec. 30	Memphis, Tenn.	Big 12 vs. SEC	West Virginia vs. Kentucky
Belk Bowl	Dec. 29	Charlotte, N.C.	ACC vs. SEC	Virginia Tech vs. Texas A&M
Texas Bowl	Dec. 28	Houston, Tex.	Big 12 vs. SEC	Texas vs. Arkansas

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Athlon has UGA in the Peach Bowl

But remember, the Peach ain't what it used to be....it is more.

The real question I have is does Athlon really think the SEC will have two semifinalist and two at large picks?

2015 Athlon Bowl Projections (Part 1) Cotton- AU Orange- Bama Sugar- OM Peach- UGA Liberty- MSU TaxSlayer- TAMU Citrus- UT Outback- Ark

— Around the SEC (@AroundTheSEC) July 7, 2015

By my count, at least two of UGA, Auburn, Alabama, and Ole Miss will have at least two losses. It also means either Auburn or Alabama will go into the national semifinals with a recent loss, since one will have to win the SEC, meaning the other lost to the SEC champion in a battle for the West on Thanksgiving weekend.

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Bowls and stuff

Nothing happened over the past two days that will change what happens with Georgia's bowl opportunities. There is some chatter that the Outback is worried about how we'll travel. The bowls no longer decide who comes, though. It is done by the league offices, with input from the bowls. Related: the Gator Bowl appears to be out because we played there last year, which is apparently another feature/bug of the new 'pool' bowl scheme.

So that leaves

• Citrus, which I think snags Missouri, unless Ole Miss/Mississippi State doesn't get an access game

and then the Outback and Gator (which will have some combination or Auburn, Ole Miss/Miss State, South Carolina, and Georgia with the 'pool' bowls)....

• Belk, which will get Georgia, South Carolina, or Auburn
• Music City, which will get Georgia, South Carolina, or Auburn
• Texas, will have LSU or Texas A&M
• Liberty, which will take Tennessee, if what I'm hearing is right

Remember, those pool bowls are no longer 'ranked,' they are considered co-equal. Meaning 9-3 (6-2 in conference) UGA is in a pool with all those 4-4 teams, and the conference has the ability, based on match up and concerns of bowl partners to slot some teams up or down, including to the BBVA/Independece slots.

So, how much do 'concerns of the bowl partners' matter? We'll see. If Mississippi State and Ole Miss get access bowls, Missouri and Georgia are the only two teams that can be slotted into the Citrus Bowl. So at this point, we are hoping for the Citrus, or dreading Music City or Belk (for the record, I'd much prefer Belk). That is if the Outback being concerned about Georgia traveling thing is real.

One last note about playing Notre Dame. The ACC's 'pool' bowls get to draw to see who can select the Irish, so some of the hold up is probably waiting to see what teams to put with the Irish (read: won't travel as well, because the Irish will). Based on the number of ACC vs. SEC match ups in bowls, it is possible we get the Irish, but just as possible as any other pool team does.

For my money, I think we end up in the Belk, because the conference hasn't done Georgia favors in slotting bowls, ever. We could still end up in the Citrus against Louisville, considering our win over Missouri. Think Bobo would enjoy running wheel routes every play against Grantham?

TD

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SEC Bowl pecking order

Let's work on a couple of assumptions. First, Alabama wins the SEC and gets into the CFB championship, playing in the Sugar Bowl. Second, the Orange Bowl takes Mississippi State as the non-playoff SEC, Big Ten/Norte Dame representative. Third, the conference sticks to it's recent past plan of getting intriguing...and winnable match ups for its members, where possible:

These three are basically decided by contract, with parameters. If the Orange doesn't take Mississippi State, it'll be because the Peach did.
Sugar: Alabama
Orange or Peach: Mississippi State (my money is on the Peach)
Citrus: Missouri

These bowls are slotted by the league in no particular order. The teams are eligible for these games based on their finishing order, but they are not slotted by their order. In other words, these bowls are all viewed generally the same by the league. In slotting them, I considered fan travel/$$ for the host cities and possible match ups.

Outback Bowl - Ole Miss
Gator Bowl - Georgia
Music City Bowl - Auburn
Belk Bowl - Tennessee
Texas Bowl - Texas A&M
Liberty Bowl - LSU

The last two games are the SEC's 'if eligible' games, with 12 teams eligible, SEC teams will go to both of these. One team will fill another confrence's slot in a random mid-December Bowl.

BBVA Bowl - South Carolina
Independence Bowl - Arkansas

Clearly, I'm picking Florida to be that team, playing some random bowl like the Catcus Bowl.

A couple of notes:

• This isn't a wish list or anything. Just how I think it'll shake out. Right now, your guess is as good as mine, but.....I've heard the possibility of a UGA vs. Notre Dame match up in Jacksonville as a pre-view to the home and home series. Supposedly, those ACC Bowls are going to draw for the right to pick the Irish. Is it possible that has already happened? I also thought through which fans and who might travel, which is why I think UGA is going back to Jacksonville.
• Texas A&M vs. Texas in the Texas Bowl. I still think it'll happen.
• Our friends in Shreveport won't let Arkansas go past if they are still on the board, IMHO. Bossier City and Razorback fans were made for each other. The caveat there is if the SEC foists South Carolina or Florida on them
• Florida fan isn't going to travel anywhere, so at this point, they are the better choice for a random one off at large spot in Arizona or Detroit.

What are your thoughts?

TD

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Georgia Bowl locale

The loss Saturday likely sent us from the Orange or Peach (both are now major bowls) to facing yet another Big Ten team in Florida....or worse.

Right now, the projections have us from the Citrus to the Music City Bowls, which are the range of the mid-level bowls for the SEC (teams 3-8). That is, of course, assuming Missouri doesn't gom up the works and put us all in a weird place of having the toughest conference left out of the CFB playoffs, which considering how this season has gone, we might end up with Missouri being declared National Champion.

Placing percentages on it...
Citrus Bowl (Orlando, FL) vs. Big Ten - 5 %
Outback Bowl (Tampa, FL) vs. Big Ten - 25%
Gator Bowl (Jacksonville, FL) vs. ACC/Big Ten - 20%
Music City Bowl (Nashville, TN) vs. ACC/Big Ten - 25%
Texas Bowl (Houston, TX) vs. Big 12 - 5%
Belk Bowl (Charlotte, NC) vs. ACC - 15%
Liberty Bowl (Memphis, TN) vs. Big 12 - 5%

We'll only go to the Citrus if there is some sort of crazy way for 2 SEC teams to make the playoffs, which clearly I don't beleive will happen. Missouri is going there unless for some reason the bowl selection committee tags them for the Cotton or Peach. I don't think we'll go to the bowls out West, as there are plenty of SEC teams that will travel better for those bowls. The hard part in considering the Belk, Music City, and Gator Bowls have to do with crowds. Tennessee is going to travel fairly well, considering this is their first bowl game in several years, which is why I think they'll get slotted to the Belk bowl for the conference's first year with them. South Carolina is another option there, for obvious reasons. We were in the Gator Bowl last year, so I think we'll not be there again.

That leaves Tampa on New Year's Day and Nashville on New Year's Eve December 301th as our best options. I've seen more than one projection with us facing Maryland in either game, so at least they are a new crappy Big Ten team to play.

TD

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Sporting News bowl projections

Has Oregon playing Oklahoma in the national title game. They have Bama in the semifinal in the Rose Bowl. I don't know how that'd happen, but ok.

Unless they have a huge troll going on, because they also have UCF in the Fiesta Bowl, which just isn't going to happen with a new QB.

They do have UGA playing in the Outback Bowl against Wisconsin. Based on their other predictions of SEC East teams, they have us losing to Alabama in the SEC Championship game.

SEC Bowl Projections:
-Alabama vs. Oklahoma in Rose Bowl (semi-finals game)
-LSU vs. Nebraska in Capital One Bowl
-Georgia vs. Wisconsin in Outback Bowl
-South Carolina vs. Miami, Fl in Gator Bowl
-Auburn vs. Michigan State in Peach Bowl
-Florida vs. TCU in Liberty Bowl
-Texas A&M vs. Louisville in Music City Bowl
-Missouri vs. Kansas State in Texas Bowl
-Mississippi State vs. Syracuse in Duck Commander Independence Bowl
-Tennessee vs. East Carolina in Birmingham Bowl

So they think Agent Muschamp will improve over last year. Also, Kevin Sumlin's offense vs. Todd Grantham's defense sure seems like a fun match up. About as fun as Bobby Petrino's offense vs. Kevin Sumlin's defense.
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Georgia in the Chick Fil A?

If you believe the rumors, we'll get Duke. Or Miami. As was predicted hinted at.
EDIT:
Never mind, shut up Dawgden.
End EDIT:

Knowing our luck, we'll get jobbed and play in the Music City. Of course, that won't be good enough for some, who have a problem with math and shit:

Gotta love the bowl system: Vandy likely to be passed by a 6-6 team and a UGA team w/2nd string QB it beat H2H. Reward: Birmingham
— Dan Wolken (@DanWolken) December 8, 2013

Just for reference:

SEC Standings

EAST	CONF	OVERALL
* - Missouri	7-1	11-2
* - South Carolina	6-2	10-2
* - Georgia	5-3	8-4
* - Vanderbilt	4-4	8-4
x - Florida	3-5	4-8
x - Tennessee	2-6	5-7
x - Kentucky	0-8	2-10

Yeah, so Georgia finished in front of Vandy in the conference. Unless they teach a special math at Vandy that means five wins are less than four wins when one of the four wins is against the team that has five. Also, someone needs to explain to me what the 2nd string QB has to do with anything (unless you want to talk about the win you got over that team being with their 3rd string RB AND the officiating in the game).
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Georgia's Bowl

ESPN has us in the Gator. Can't argue with that. Here's how it'll shake out:

SEC Champ and Alabama in BCS
Loser of SEC Championship Game in CapOne
LSU in Cotton Bowl
South Carolina in Outback

Now there are three 8-4 teams for the league to match up with Bowl Partners. Texas A&M, Georgia, and Vandy. Throw in Ole Miss, despite losing to Mississippi State on Thanksgiving night. Georgia is 5-3 in the conference. I think we stand a better than even shot at the CFA bowl. Part of that is match up. For my money, I'd rather get Michigan in the Gator than the presumptive ACC runner up Duke in Atlanta, but still there is an matter of prestige.

It'd be hard to see CFA and Gator grabbing Ole Miss or Vandy over Georgia and Texas A&M, so basically it is the Aggies and the Dawgs for those two. I think the CFA will want UGA fans to fill up Georgia Dome since Duke won't travel. If Duke pulls the upset over FSU, no way Georgia makes the CFA, as the ACC will have two BCS teams and Clemson will face A&M.

But, the CFA might throw it down to get Johnny Football in his last college football game if it is Duke.
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Georgia's Bowl Outlook

A great deal of the discussion at our post game pityfest debrief was what does this do for Georgia's bowl outlook. It ranged from New Orleans to Jacksonville. Here's what I think:

Sugar (New Orleans):

1. The simplest way for us to go is to win the SEC. This isn't 2007. We aren't going to Pasadena with two losses. People don't just lose to Kentucky and Arkansas and play for the National Championship. Keep telling yourself that.
2. I think we still have a shot to go as an at large. Clearly we'd need to win out for that to happen. If we give number one Alabama all they can handle again in the SECCG, but lose a nail biter, I think we go over anyone but a one loss South Carolina (meaning they've beaten Clemson). I don't see us going to New Orleans without playing in the SEC Championship absent some craziness from the West. If Mizzou gets there, but loses either they play in the Sugar or the SEC only has one team in the BCS. Clearly a one loss Texas A&M/Alabama non-SECCG participant goes before we do no matter what. I think we go before a two loss LSU if we are a three loss SEC Championship Game participant, for what it is worth. Same goes for two loss Florida and two loss South Carolina. If we go to the SEC Championship with Missouri at two losses, who knows?

Capital One (Orlando): Win out the regular season and have Missouri play in the SEC Championship Game. If we lose in the SEC Championship game, there are a ton of variables, but if South Carolina is one loss and not in the Sugar Bowl, they end up here. I just don't see a one loss South Carolina not going to the Sugar Bowl.

Cotton (Dallas): We need monkeys to fly out Mike Slive's ass.

Outback (Tampa): Win out, but have Alabama, Missouri, LSU, South Carolina, and Texas A&M finish ahead of us in rankings/w-l. Depending on how others finish up, we could end up here with another loss.

Peach (Atlanta): Lose another game.

Gator (Jacksonville): Finish behind Missouri, Florida and South Carolina in the East. 

Clearly, this isn't all of the scenarios, just the more likely ones. I don't see LSU in danger of losing to anyone but Alabama, but they could lose to Texas A&M. I don't see Alabama in danger of losing to anyone but LSU. I see Texas A&M in danger of losing to anyone but Mississippi State, UTEP, and Vandy. Or winning out. Missouri has the toughest schedule to go. South Carolina and Florida still have to face each other and have games against very stout OOC opponents left.

All of this assumes the SEC puts two teams in the BCS. If that doesn't happen, who knows?

TD

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Jerry Palm downgrades Georgia to Sell

Jerry Palm is done with UGA:

BCS GAMES
BOWL	DATE	LOCATION	MATCHUP	PREDICTION
BCS Title Game	Jan. 6	Pasadena, Calif..	BCS vs BCS	Alabama vs. Ohio State
Orange	Jan. 3	Miami, Fla.	ACC/BCS vs BCS	Clemson vs. Oregon
Sugar	Jan. 2	New Orleans, La.	SEC/BCS vs BCS	South Carolina vs. Louisville
Fiesta	Jan. 1	Glendale, Ariz.	Big 12/BCS vs BCS	Oklahoma State vs. Fresno State
Rose	Jan. 1	Pasadena, Calif.	Big Ten/BCS vs Pac-12/BCS	Nebraska vs. Stanford

This is the first time Palm has put any team but UGA in the Sugar Bowl. He currently has the Dawgs in the CapitalOne Bowl.  Presumably, he thinks Georgia will lose two more SEC games, based on this prediction.

Either that or he thinks the BCS would take a one-two loss South Carolina over a two-three loss Georgia.
TD

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SEC Bowl Game Predictions

I'm going to predict all the SEC games, starting with the Music City Bowl, ending with the SEC BCS National Championship. I'll do the BCS games and the national championship separately.

Monday, December 31 (all times Eastern)
FRANKLIN AMERICAN MORTGAGE MUSIC CITY BOWL, Noon
NC State vs. Vandy: Team in a coaching transition playing a team that is looking to be more than a cute story and a stepping stone job for their coach. Take Vandy, big.

Chick-fil-A BOWL, 7:30
LSU vs. Clemson: Possibly the best bowl match-up  with LSU going off at 4.5 point favorites. I'm going to use transitive win here and say the winner over South Carolina takes it. LSU beat the Gamecocks by two. Clemson lost by 10.

New Years Day
TAXSLAYER.com GATOR BOWL, Noon
Mississippi State vs. Northwestern: Sorry bizzaro Dawgs. The Wildcats might still be in the B1.5G, but they are the real deal running the ball. Your rushing defense, however, is far from the real deal. The Wildcats get the only B1.5G win over the SEC.

OUTBACK BOWL, 1pm
South Carolina vs. Michigan: South Carolina will be looking to make a point about belonging somewhere besides Tampa. Michigan will look pretty silly giving up multiple rushing and passing TDs to Connor Shaw. Gamecocks in a rout.

CAPITAL ONE BOWL, 1pm
Georgia vs. Nebraska: Not to put too fine a point on this, but did you see the B1.5G championship game? Wisconsin's band gained over 100 yards on Nebraska at halftime.

Friday, January 4th
Cotton Bowl, 8pm
Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma: If Notre Dame's QB can lead the Irish to a win over the Sooners, Johnny Football will do so in Dallas.

Saturday, January 5th
BBVA Compass Bowl, 1pm
Pitt vs. Ole Miss: I'm not sure what the fine people of Birmingham did to the football gods to deserve this game, but it must bad. This is the second year in a row they've gotten Pitt, this time paired with Ole Miss. Take Ole Miss, but on the under.

Like I said, I'll do the Sugar Bowl and other BCS games separately, as well as the national championship. What are your predictions?

TD

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Leeman Bennett's Chick-Fil-A Bowl Short List

Interesting. Bennett is chairman of the bowl selection committee.  While this list isn't dispositive, it will tell you who they are focused on with just three regular season games left.

SEC
LSU
Mississippi State
South Carolina
Texas A&M

ACC
Clemson
Duke
Florida State
Miami

Just to remind you, the CFA bowl gets the first choice of ACC teams after the BCS. They get the fourth pick of SEC team after the BCS. Most projections have two SEC teams going to the BCS. Many projections have FSU and Clemson making a BCS bowl.

Basically that leaves some combination of Duke/Miami vs. SEC team not named Texas A&M. I just don't see how the Cotton Bowl leaves them on the table barring an absolute collapse (See South Carolina circa 2007). It'd be interesting to see if they pair Duke and South Carolina here, but I'm thinking it'll be more like Duke and Mississippi State, which would be like the Egg Bowl, but with far better academics on one side. The winner of the Miami/Duke game at the end of the season may well decide who goes to Atlanta.

Of course, that also assumes Duke doesn't win the ACC. Yes, Duke.

No Georgia though. I guess the committee doesn't think it is such a trap this weekend.

TD

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Way premature bowl talk

After getting rudely kicked out of the stadium while Pitt was lining up to kick a possible game winner over Notre Dame Leaving the stadium Saturday night, the wife asked me a question I dread every year: "What [fill in important family event] are we going to miss to go see Georgia's bowl game?"

I don't necessarily dread it because of missing the family event, as we have relatively few important family events after Christmas, so the better the bowl game, the less likely I am to have to miss an event. I dread it because she is really asking me what bowl game I think we'll play in.

At least that is the way I perceive it.

As it is, I'm pretty lucky with my wife's enjoyment of, and tolerance for, attending away games. I'll miss Auburn, but that'll be my first miss this season. Still, there are logistical issues to deal with for any game that isn't in Atlanta, Jacksonville, Orlando, or Tampa (or Nashville, now that I think about it, but I'd really rather not).

By my view, Georgia is playing on New Year's Day or after. Right now, ESPN's Schlabach and Edwards have Georgia in the Capital One and Outback bowls, respectively. I can see Capital One. I can't see Outback. Edwards has South Carolina jumping The World LSU, Georgia and Florida to play in the Sugar Bowl. He must know something about Steve Spurrier's retirement that we don't.

So, where will Georgia play, assuming we win out, but don't win in Atlanta (not saying we can't; just looking at most likely scenarios to keep from having to do a breakdown or a homerific analysis)?

Cotton: I just don't see it. With the Cotton's built in preference for West teams, I don't see any way either LSU or Texas A&M don't play there. For that matter, if a Texas A&M v. Texas match-up is possible, I don't see LSU going.

Peach or Gator: Lose to Auburn and Tech.*

Outback: Win the East, but lose to Tech and 'Bama. Or get ramhammered in the SECCG. Other stuff can happen, but I think South Carolina will lose to Clemson, so the Sugar and Capital One would have to take a three loss South Carolina over either a 1-2 loss Florida and a 2 loss Georgia. I just don't see it.

Capital One: This is where I think we end up, absent an overtime game or last second 'Bama victory in Atlanta. It isn't that the Dawgs won't be deserving of a BCS bid as much as it is the Dawgs will have the 'don't show up in big games' thing around their neck. The last thing the Sugar Bowl wants is a possible blow out on their hands in prime time on January 2nd (see the 2012 Orange Bowl).

Sugar: Win out the regular season. Play a complete game in Atlanta, but lose a close one to Alabama. It is still possible the Sugar Bowl takes another SEC team (Florida, if they beat ACC champ FSU, South Carolina, if they beat ACC champ Clemson, or LSU, because the Sugar Bowl committee loves titty showing grannies), but I think they'll pick Georgia, especially if they think they can get a Clemson vs. Georgia game or a re-match of the 1981 game.

For my purposes, I'd love to go to New Orleans and would rate that trip just below missing the birth of my first child, but way above missing the birth of my fourth (because once you've seen one, you can bluff your way around all the rest). For logistics sake, the three other possibles are much easier, but way less fun.

Of course, if we win in Atlanta....

TD
* That isn't to say Georgia wouldn't fall to there even if we win out and lose a close game to Alabama. I'm just saying the only way Georgia is guaranteed to play in one of those two is if we lose to Auburn and Tech.

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Dawgs to Face Michigan State in Outback Bowl

Kick off is 1pm Eastern on January 2nd from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa.  ABC will cover the game with Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden (who still won't be coaching in college by then) in the booth and Lisa Salters on the sideline..

Michigan State got a way worse deal than Georgia did in the bowl selections, with two teams they beat in the regular season (Wisconsin and Michigan) making BCS games.  Of course, they did lose to Wisconsin last night in the B!G championship game.

Very tough defensive team to face. More on that later.

TD

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Where Will Georgia Go Bowling?

No matter how the BCS Championship shakes out, LSU and Alabama are going to be BCS teams.  That leaves Arkansas, South Carolina and Georgia left for the CapitolOne, Outback and Cotton bowls. For purposes of discussion, I assume those three bowls wouldn't pick a 7-5 team over a 10 win team (and I am not sure they can by rule, now that I think about it).

The CapitolOne has first pick of SEC teams after BCS teams are off the table. Outback and Cotton pick next, working together.

Conventional wisdom has Arkansas going to Dallas for the Cotton.  There is no rule requiring a West team, but only Tennessee in 2001 and 2005 has played in the Cotton Bowl from the East since the SEC tie in started. The West just makes more sense, given proximity of fan base.

However, for that to happen, CapitolOne has to pick either Georgia or South Carolina over Arkansas. Do you think that'll happen?  I don't. It looks like the B!G rep will be Nebraska, so matching Bobby Petrino and Bo Penlini is a pretty compelling opportunity. If Michigan doesn't get a BCS bid, you can expect them to play in Orlando, by the way. There is a chance they pick Georgia, since we played in the SECC or South Carolina because they are stupid, but given the match-ups and getting a top 5-6 BCS ranked team, they'll pick Arky.

So that leaves the Outback and Cotton picking between Georgia and South Carolina. I don't have anything more than a hunch, but I think we'll go to Dallas and face Oklahoma.   If I am wrong, we'll face Michigan State (or Nebraska if they don't go to Orlando).

Where would you like us to go/see us going?
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Georgia's Bowl Outlook

Raise your hand if you thought Georgia would be looking at no worse than the Outback Bowl back on September 12th?  Anyone?

But here we are on November 15th and that is where we are. Here are my thoughts on Georgia's bowl chances:

BCS National Championship: This ain't 2007, y'all.

Sugar: Clearly, this is the crown jewel of bowl talk for the Georgia fan. The path is simple, but not easy. Beat Kentucky this week, then beat the SEC West Champion in Atlanta. We'll likely get Houston or the loser of the OU vs Oklahoma State game.

CapitolOne and Cotton (updated to reflect reality, not my perception..see comments): CapOne picks immediately after the BCS picks are off the table, and is obligated to take the top remaining team or a team within one game of that team. Traditionally, CapOne picks the top non-BCS team from the East and the Cotton the top non-BCS team from the West. Last year, 'Bama was picked over South Carolina, due to their better record.  2005 was the last Cotton Bowl to feature a team from the East (Tennessee). In fact, Tennessee is the only team from the East to play in the Cotton Bowl under the current bowl alignment agreement.

So where does that leave us?  A combination of 'Bama, LSU and Arkansas are BCS teams, with the other West team going to the Cotton Bowl. However, there is a rumor growing consensus that if the CapOne can get Arkansas, they will. If Georgia doesn't finish with a game of them, they have to take Arkansas. I think the CapOne grabs the Dawgs if Arkansas is a BCS team, unless somehow LSU isn't in the BCS. If Arkansas goes to Orlando, the Dawgs will likely go to the Cotton Bowl, since rumors/consensus has the Outback and Cotton working together to get the Gamecocks to Tampa and Dawgs to Dallas.

In the Cotton Bowl, we'd get Kansas State, Texas or Baylor, unless Oklahoma or Oklahoma State don't get a BCS nod. My money is on KState.

In the CapOne, we'd play some combination of Wisconsin, Penn State, Nebraska, or Michigan State. My money is on Wisconsin.

Outback: If we lose to Kentucky, this is the very best we can hope for. If we lose to Tech after beating Kentucky, it gets murkier. The more likely scenario, of course, is beat Kentucky, lose to Tech and have the CapOne and Cotton pass on us. Go to the Outback and we face some crappy B1G team, likely Michigan, which is far better than Nashville facing some crappy ACC team.  I think this is the 'worse' bowl game we'll go to if we beat Kentucky, but lose to Tech.

There is one other way we end up in Tampa: if Arkansas is the only BCS team from the SEC, which is frankly not very plausible.  If that happens, LSU and Bama will go to the CapOne and Cotton.

Peach...or worse: Lose both of the remaining games. Face regret and the Dawg Vent crashing. It is possible, but not conceivable, given the other options, that the Dawgs could win one/both regular season games, then lose the SECCG and end up getting South Carolina'ed, but considering that'd mean three bowls would have passed over a 9-10 win Georgia for 7 win teams, I don't see it happening.

Right now, let's win this week and see what happens in Atlanta.  Win the first one in Atlanta and we are nearly assured at least the Cotton/CapOne.  Lose both in Atlanta, CapOne is the very best we can hope for and are likely looking at Outback.

I'd love to go to Dallas if we aren't in New Orleans.  Wouldn't you?
TD

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SEC Bowl Predictions from Us

Below are the Bowl Predictions from three of your friendly hosts.

Westerdawg Picks

Sugar	Alabama
Fiesta	LSU
CapitalOne	S. Carolina
Outback	Georgia
Cotton	Arkansas
Peach	Auburn
Gator	Florida
Music City	Miss State
Liberty	Tennessee
B'ham Bowl	Ole Miss

Tyler Dawgden

MNC Game	Alabama
Sugar	LSU
CapitalOne	Georgia
Outback	Florida
Cotton	Miss State
Peach	S. Carolina
Gator	Arkansas
Music City	Kentucky
Liberty	Tennessee
B'ham Bowl	Auburn

Dawgnoxious

Sugar	LSU
Fiesta	Alabama
CapitalOne	Georgia
Outback	Florida
Cotton	Arky
Peach	Auburn
Gator	S. Carolina
Music City	Kentucky
Liberty	Tennessee
B'ham Bowl	Ole Miss

What are your picks? What's your reaction?

PWD

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Bowl Chaos Update

SEC and ACC Bowls are getting progressively more nuts and unpredictable by the minute. Here's the latest:

• LSU to the Capital One - This is still pretty much a go.

• Ole Miss to Cotton - Multiple reports including the Dallas Morning News are saying that Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma State is pretty much a done deal for the Cotton Bowl.

• Auburn to Outback Bowl - The Outback Bowl may officially announce this afternoon that Auburn is invited to the Tampa bowl. Tennessee media outlets agree that AU is likely to get that invite instead of the Vols.

• FSU to the Gator Bowl - The Gator gets the second pick of ACC teams, and the Tallahassee Democrat says the Gator will select FSU vs. West Virginia for Bowden's final game if/when the retirement is finalized. The Gator also selected UGA for Dooley's last game.
  

• Virginia Tech to the Chick-Fil-A - The Chick-Fil-A Bowl should update their blog later today with their latest leanings, but 9-3 Va Tech looks like a distinct possibility. If the Chick-Fil-A takes VT, the loser of the ACC Title game could fall all the way to the Champ Sports Bowl. Update Per the Tallahassee Democrat:

  According to the Gator Bowl's contract with the ACC, the team only has to invite the ACC title game loser once in four years, which it did with Georgia Tech in 2007. Without speculating on the matchup, Gator Bowl general chairman Dan Murphy told the Times-Union late Monday that it's the GBA's interpretation of the contract that the league's one-loss rule (a team cannot be passed for consideration by an ACC bowl partner for a team more than one loss behind in the conference standings) does not apply if the Gator Bowl decides not to invite the championship game loser. (emphasis added)
  

  Georgia Tech attended the Chick-fil-A last year. Va Tech would be making their third trip to Atlanta in one season, and Clemson would be riding a two game losing streak at 8-5. All three ACC teams have hair on them.
  

• UGA or UT in the Chick-Fil-A - The best thing for all bowl partners would be UGA in the Chick-Fil-A and UT in the Music City. That would sell the greatest number of total bowl tickets. However, UT vs. VT is an incredibly compelling regional game as is Georgia vs. Clemson, or Georgia Tech vs. Tennessee. The Atlanta Sports Council has a tough call on their hands.

• UGA, UT or SC in the Music City? - The Nashville Bowl has a variety of incredibly compelling potential games as South Carolina, Tennessee or Georgia would all offer a great game against North Carolina in the Music City Bowl.
  

• UGA to the Independence Bowl? - If UT goes to the Chick-Fil-A and SC faces UNC in the Music City, Georgia could fall all the way to the Independence Bowl. We are hearing that this is still a scenario that is very much on the table. The Liberty Bowl isn't in play as that bowl will not pass on Arkansas. Texas A&M is a strong candidate for the opponent in Shreveport.
  

PWD

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Bowl Projections for UGA

As of tonight, Chris Low, Mark Schlabach and Bruce Feldman all think we're going to the Chick-Fil-A Bowl likely vs. Virginia Tech. Sportsline thinks we're still heading to Birmingham, but I just can't see that happening. Mark Bradley is waffling, but leaning towards Nashville.

The ESPN folks who think we're coming to Atlanta are basing that on the idea that Ole Miss and Tennessee are going to some combination of the Outback and the Cotton Bowls. That is likely the best case for UGA from a bowl prestige standpoint.

Here are some of the complicating factors that could make our destination murky until the final hour:

• Cotton Bowl + SWC Relationships: It's not unreasonable for the Cotton Bowl to pass on Ole Miss making a return visit. They are allowed to slip down a notch and pick up a team like Arkansas. The Hawgs went to Dallas after the 2007 and 2001 seasons, and the bowl committee likes having the Hawgs. An Arkansas vs. Oklahoma State match-up would sell a ton of tickets. If they take the Razorbacks, the Outback would take Ole Miss. At that point, the Chick-Fil-A has to choose between UGA, SC and UT. Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee would be a very compelling game, and that could slip us to the Music City or lower.
  
  
• Outback Bowl + UK Relationships: The founder of Outback Steakhouse is a UK Alum, and he was instrumental in developing the Outback Bowl into what it is today. He was also the key factor in bringing the 1998 Wildcat team to Tampa despite their 7-4 record, despite coming off a 59-21 blowout loss to Tennessee and despite UGA having a better record at 8-3 and a head to head win. A much easier case could be made for bringing UK in 2009 back to Tampa. They've gone the longest between visits to Tampa compared to UGA, UT and SC, and they would be fairly excited about the trip. If UK goes here and Ole Miss is in the Cotton Bowl, we're back to the Chick-Fil-A bowl choosing between UGA and UT. This could also send us to the Music City or lower. I see this as a remote possibility.
  

All we do know at this point is:

1. Bama and UF are obviously BCS bound.

2. LSU is a near mortal lock for the Capital One Bowl

3. South Carolina isn't going to the Outback again.

4. Ole Miss isn't slipping past the Outback.

5. Tennessee won't slip past the Liberty or Music City (which pick simultaneously)

6. UK is going to have problems getting into the Liberty and PapaJohn's Bowls. Those games are the same date as UK vs. Louisville in basketball with near overlapping time slots. If UK were to end up in B'ham, it would be because no one else wanted them.

7. The Chick-Fil-A Bowl is unlikely to put together a rematch between UGA/GT or Clemson/SC.

The only bad scenarios to me are playing Northwestern in the Outback or Boston College in the Music City Bowl. Facing VT in the Chick-Fil-A, UNC or FSU in the Music City or Wisconsin in the Outback works for me.

Where do you think we end up?

PWD

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The Bowl Picture

Since every Georgia fan I know is either indifferent to the Tech game, conceding defeat, or actively cheering for Tech to score in economy size bunches so the defensive staff can be lit ablaze at midfield after the game, I'm going to take a glance at the bowl picture.  If I assume death by a thousand stings Saturday, it looks like the possibilities are Memphis, Shreveport, or Birmingham.  Nashville could be a possibility, but only if we beat Tech.  Assuming South Carolina and Auburn lose this weekend, I think they are our primary competition.

Here's how the top bowls shake out: BCS - Gators and Tide, Capital One - Ole Miss, Cotton - winner of LSU and Arkansas, Outback - winner of UK and UT, Peach - loser of LSU and Arkansas, Music City - loser of UT and UK.  That leaves Auburn, the Dawgs, and the Cocks to fight it out for the lower bowls. 

If I'm the Liberty Bowl, I can select a team with a new coach, a relatively energized fanbase, and a team with the closest geographic proximity (but still requires a hotel stay) in Auburn.  I'd get a Gus Malzahn's offense against Houston, a potential offensive explosion, to draw a TV crowd.  Imagine our secondary against the Cougars.  I think I'd take Auburn in that game before I'd select Georgia, despite the head-to-head win.

Which leaves the Indy Bowl with the next pick.  If it's between us and Carolina, my guess is that we'd get the edge.  We beat them in September, they're going to likely be riding a four game losing streak, and they have been to Shreveport recently.  Plus, look at the Big 12 candidates the Indy Bowl might select.  A UGA-Oklahoma game would draw a nice TV audience, even though both teams have fallen on hard times.  I'd think a Georgia-A&M game would draw as well, just based on the name value of the two teams.  Those Big 12 teams should bring a crowd and offset the attendence problems created by the distance factor for Georgia fans.

The only real threat to this is if Oklahoma State ends up in the BCS.  Then Iowa State likely comes into play for Shreveport.  An Auburn vs. Iowa State game would have serious appeal because of Gene Chizick.  Maybe the SEC and the Liberty allow that game and Georgia goes to Memphis instead of Auburn. 

So, is a match up with Oklahoma or Texas A&M exciting enough to get you to buy a ticket?

Quinton

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