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November 15, 2011

Georgia's Bowl Outlook

Raise your hand if you thought Georgia would be looking at no worse than the Outback Bowl back on September 12th?  Anyone?

But here we are on November 15th and that is where we are. Here are my thoughts on Georgia's bowl chances:

BCS National Championship: This ain't 2007, y'all.

Sugar: Clearly, this is the crown jewel of bowl talk for the Georgia fan. The path is simple, but not easy. Beat Kentucky this week, then beat the SEC West Champion in Atlanta. We'll likely get Houston or the loser of the OU vs Oklahoma State game.

CapitolOne and Cotton (updated to reflect reality, not my perception..see comments): CapOne picks immediately after the BCS picks are off the table, and is obligated to take the top remaining team or a team within one game of that team. Traditionally, CapOne picks the top non-BCS team from the East and the Cotton the top non-BCS team from the West. Last year, 'Bama was picked over South Carolina, due to their better record.  2005 was the last Cotton Bowl to feature a team from the East (Tennessee). In fact, Tennessee is the only team from the East to play in the Cotton Bowl under the current bowl alignment agreement.

So where does that leave us?  A combination of 'Bama, LSU and Arkansas are BCS teams, with the other West team going to the Cotton Bowl. However, there is a rumor growing consensus that if the CapOne can get Arkansas, they will. If Georgia doesn't finish with a game of them, they have to take Arkansas. I think the CapOne grabs the Dawgs if Arkansas is a BCS team, unless somehow LSU isn't in the BCS. If Arkansas goes to Orlando, the Dawgs will likely go to the Cotton Bowl, since rumors/consensus has the Outback and Cotton working together to get the Gamecocks to Tampa and Dawgs to Dallas.

In the Cotton Bowl, we'd get Kansas State, Texas or Baylor, unless Oklahoma or Oklahoma State don't get a BCS nod. My money is on KState.

In the CapOne, we'd play some combination of Wisconsin, Penn State, Nebraska, or Michigan State. My money is on Wisconsin.

Outback: If we lose to Kentucky, this is the very best we can hope for. If we lose to Tech after beating Kentucky, it gets murkier. The more likely scenario, of course, is beat Kentucky, lose to Tech and have the CapOne and Cotton pass on us. Go to the Outback and we face some crappy B1G team, likely Michigan, which is far better than Nashville facing some crappy ACC team.  I think this is the 'worse' bowl game we'll go to if we beat Kentucky, but lose to Tech.

There is one other way we end up in Tampa: if Arkansas is the only BCS team from the SEC, which is frankly not very plausible.  If that happens, LSU and Bama will go to the CapOne and Cotton.

Peach...or worse: Lose both of the remaining games. Face regret and the Dawg Vent crashing. It is possible, but not conceivable, given the other options, that the Dawgs could win one/both regular season games, then lose the SECCG and end up getting South Carolina'ed, but considering that'd mean three bowls would have passed over a 9-10 win Georgia for 7 win teams, I don't see it happening.

Right now, let's win this week and see what happens in Atlanta.  Win the first one in Atlanta and we are nearly assured at least the Cotton/CapOne.  Lose both in Atlanta, CapOne is the very best we can hope for and are likely looking at Outback.

I'd love to go to Dallas if we aren't in New Orleans.  Wouldn't you?


Anonymous said...

Cotton Bowl would be nice since it is now held in the Cowboys stadium.

Anonymous said...

Are you sure that the CapOne and Cotton get simultaneous bowl picks? I thought that the Capital One had a clear cut choice of #2 while the outback and Cotton jointly pick the 3rd team from the SEC. Either way, it's nice knowing we'll be playing in a January bowl game this year. Cotton Bowl is January 6...would be very weird playing on a Friday night.

Anonymous said...

In Dallas last month. Too late in the day to tour Jerry World but it is beautiful. It will be a great trip. 10-9

Anonymous said...

I'd love to see the Dawgs make another trip to the Cotton.

I still have one of my "UGA" clocks in the basement set at 9:50 - took the batteries out. B/c in Dallas, it's always 10 to 9.

Anonymous said...

It's weird how practically every blog trying to project bowl games makes mistakes with the selection order. Do a little research. The order is:
BCS National Championship
Sugar Bowl
Another BCS Bowl at large selection(if no SEC team is qualified for the Natl Championship)
Capital One

Outback and Cotton work together. Outback gets first pick of remaining eastern division teams. Cotton gets first pick of remaining western division teams. If one of them wants a team from the other division, they have to first clear it with the other bowl. For example if the Cotton Bowl wants Georgia, they can only select them if the Outback bowl prefers another team from the east (South Carolina?).



Liberty and Music City Bowls work with the SEC office to decide who they get in their bowl games.

Lastly, if anyone is left the BBVA Compass Bowl gets them.

Tyler Dawgden said...

Anon 10:01, you are correct. I have updated the post to reflect that...which another reason why folks are picking Arky to CapOne, they could be obligated to take them.


Tyler Dawgden said...

Anon 10:32, thanks. I dug up an SEC Media Guide (which I thought I was remembering correctly, but clearly wasn't).

This is verbatim: "The Capitol One will make its pick following the BCS selections. The Cotton Bowl was first preference of teams from the Western Division and the Outback Bowl has first preference of teams from the Eastern Division. The Cotton or Outback Bowl can select teams outside of its divisional preference, but must not select them before the opposite bowl selects from its divisional preference."

Now, if I read that correctly, I believe the Cotton and Outback would have to work together, since conceivably, the Outback could say they want Georgia and the Cotton would have no say otherwise.

Anonymous said...

For Georgia to go to the Cotton Bowl, the Outback Bowl would have to prefer another team from the East. Assuming LSU and Alabama win out. Georgia beats UK and GT, but loses to LSU in the SECCG. Arkansas beat Miss State, but loses to LSU. Then

Sugar = Alabama
Cap One = Arkansas (most likely)

Outback has first choice of East teams and Cotton has first choice of West teams. The teams realistically on the table are Georgia, South Carolina, and Auburn.

Basically, the Outback gets it's pick of South Carolina and Georgia. I suspect they'd prefer Georgia, especially if Clemson beats SC.

The Cotton can then take Auburn or the East team that was passed over by the Outback bowl. The only way that they end up getting Georgia is if the Outback Bowl prefers South Carolina and the Cotton Bowl prefers Georgia to Auburn. It could happen, but I suspect the Outback bowl will end up taking Georgia. The Cotton bowl will then select Auburn.

Chik-Fil-A takes South Carolina

Gator takes Florida

The SEC Office sends Vanderbilt to the Liberty Bowl and Mississippi State to the Music City Bowl.

Tennessee loses to Vandy and is not bowl eligible so the BBVC Compass bowl doesn't get an SEC team.

Anonymous said...

"The Cotton or Outback Bowl can select teams outside of its divisional preference, but must not select them before the opposite bowl selects from its divisional preference."

This means that if the Cotton Bowl wants a team from the EAST, it has to make sure the Outback Bowl doesn't want it first. If the Outback Bowl wants a team from the WEST, it has to make sure the Cotton Bowl doesn't want it. It will be the Outback's bowl choice to turn down Georgia, before the Cotton Bowl can select them.

ZebulonDawg said...

Thanks for clearing that up. I believe all yall said the same damn thing.

Outback will have to pass on UGA for the Cotton to get us.

Pete Davis said...

Have a laugh at Kentucky:

Newt said...

I don't think it's automatic that the Cap One takes Arkansas over UGA. If UGA beats KY & tech and Arkansas loses to LSU, both will be two loss teams (minus an assumed UGA loss in the SECGC). UGA would certainly travel better better to Orlando than would Arkansas and is a more attractive tv draw b/c of the Atlanta market and a better national profile.

Anonymous said...

If we're lucky enough to go to the Sugar Bowl, it would suck to play Houston. It would be 2007 all over again. While it was fun the first time, I wouldn't want to see it again.

Cotton Bowl will never happen, though I'd love to see it. It will always be 10-9 in Dallas. I'd rather play in the original Cotton Bowl, too.

Sam, Dawg Fan said...

Here is a novel idea---let the games play out.

Prediction: WI wins BigTen

Tyler Dawgden said...

Now, what fun would that be?

Anonymous said...

Anon with the clock, please tell me it's actually set to 8:50. :)

PatinDC said...

The Cotton Bowl vs TX or OK would be cool. It's all gravy...

Agree on Suger vs Houston being another UGA vs Hawaii.

PatinDC said...

Some really different scenarios here:

I thought SC didn't travel well. Why would they be picked to go to Dallas?

Football Dude said...

I believe the verbiage in the Cap One contract states "within 1 conference win". So in actuality, assuming UGA wins out the regular season, and Arky loses to LSU, UGA would have the better conference record at 7 wins vs. Arky's 6 wins. However, both teams would be eligible to go to the Cap One Bowl.

Where people get confused/frustrated with the bowl selection process is when the bowls don't pick a team with a better record. Bowls exist for one purpose, to make money. Yes, all bowls are non-profit but they get massive boners when they make big donations to their charities. Don't believe me? Next time you see a bowl rep, ask for their hand out materials. It will have their payout, their TV ratings, and their charitable donations all ranked against the other bowls. The payout and TV ratings are what keeps them in the pecking order they are in now. If they want to move up (or prevent moving down), these things must better than the other bowls.

So all that gets us to why do bowls pick who they do. Here goes....

1. Who is going to garner the best TV ratings? You'd be amazed at how much info is available to (and discussed by) the selection committees. What was the rating the last time this team played in our bowl, what about other bowls, this years regular season ratings, is there something about the other potential team that would give a boost in ratings (example the Penn State/Fla State game in the Orange Bowl a few years ago was a made for TV bonanza).

2. Who is going to bring the most fans? This is why the scouts are at all the games. How full is the stadium for regular season games (especially the crap games)? How many fans did they bring last time? How many tickets did they buy to their last bowl? And was this more or less than other teams in that bowl? There is literally a ton of data discussed to try to predict which team will bring more fans.

3. How have they fared over their last few games? It's very difficult to pick the loser of a championship game because 1 they just lost, and 2 the fans paid all that money to go to the championship game. So there is always a question of whether or not they will pay for another trip. If you will look, more often than not, the Capital One Bowl does not pick the loser of the SEC championship game.

So the next time you see a bowl rep/scout, don't just walk by. Stop them and say hello. Tell them how much you enjoy their bowl (give specifics). Do a little selling yourself (unless you don't want to go to their bowl). And ask them for a pin. Cap One is giving out pins now instead of patches.

matt b. said...

10-9? Am I missing something?

Tyler Dawgden said...

Great stuff, Football Dude.

todd said...

If we can't win out then my vote would be for the Cotton Bowl. We have a nice history there but haven't been since Jan. 1, 1984. I would prefer to play OU, UT, or OKSU in that order. Though I would't complain if we got a highly rated KSU team.

If we end up in FL I personally enjoy Tampa better than Orlando. But I would not care as much about location as I would opponent. I don't want another bowl game vs. Wisconsin thought they might be the better team. I'd rather play a revenge game vs. PSU or Nebraska (the 69 Sun), or a tiebreaker game vs. Michigan.

A Sugar Bowl appearance would be great though I already dread playing Houston. They would be a better opponent than Hawaii was, in fact we might lose to them. That's not the way I want 2011 to go out.

Back in Sept. I thought we might be looking at Shreveport, Memphis, Nashville, or B'ham. So I'm pretty happy with the possibilities the Dawgs have earned for us.

Anonymous said...

The is NO WAY the Cotton will pick UGA and NO WAY the Cap One will pick Arky. UGA fans will not travel well to that game and Arky won't travel to Florida. Neither team travels well to bowl games, so why make the distance even further?

John From Texas said...

Though I'd be stoked big-time, I'd bet my 5-year-old daughter that Georgia NEVER receives a Cotton bid again, especially now that A&M and Mizzou have joined the SEC. Essentially, if Georgia wins 8 or more games it has three logical destinations: BCS, Captial, Outback or Music City.

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