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November 5, 2012

Way premature bowl talk

After getting rudely kicked out of the stadium while Pitt was lining up to kick a possible game winner over Notre Dame Leaving the stadium Saturday night, the wife asked me a question I dread every year: "What [fill in important family event] are we going to miss to go see Georgia's bowl game?"

I don't necessarily dread it because of missing the family event, as we have relatively few important family events after Christmas, so the better the bowl game, the less likely I am to have to miss an event. I dread it because she is really asking me what bowl game I think we'll play in.

At least that is the way I perceive it.

As it is, I'm pretty lucky with my wife's enjoyment of, and tolerance for, attending away games. I'll miss Auburn, but that'll be my first miss this season. Still, there are logistical issues to deal with for any game that isn't in Atlanta, Jacksonville, Orlando, or Tampa (or Nashville, now that I think about it, but I'd really rather not).

By my view, Georgia is playing on New Year's Day or after. Right now, ESPN's Schlabach and Edwards have Georgia in the Capital One and Outback bowls, respectively. I can see Capital One. I can't see Outback. Edwards has South Carolina jumping The World LSU, Georgia and Florida to play in the Sugar Bowl. He must know something about Steve Spurrier's retirement that we don't.

So, where will Georgia play, assuming we win out, but don't win in Atlanta (not saying we can't; just looking at most likely scenarios to keep from having to do a breakdown or a homerific analysis)?

Cotton: I just don't see it. With the Cotton's built in preference for West teams, I don't see any way either LSU or Texas A&M don't play there. For that matter, if a Texas A&M v. Texas match-up is possible, I don't see LSU going.

Peach or Gator: Lose to Auburn and Tech.*

Outback: Win the East, but lose to Tech and 'Bama. Or get ramhammered in the SECCG. Other stuff can happen, but I think South Carolina will lose to Clemson, so the Sugar and Capital One would have to take a three loss South Carolina over either a 1-2 loss Florida and a 2 loss Georgia. I just don't see it.

Capital One: This is where I think we end up, absent an overtime game or last second 'Bama victory in Atlanta. It isn't that the Dawgs won't be deserving of a BCS bid as much as it is the Dawgs will have the 'don't show up in big games' thing around their neck. The last thing the Sugar Bowl wants is a possible blow out on their hands in prime time on January 2nd (see the 2012 Orange Bowl).

Sugar: Win out the regular season. Play a complete game in Atlanta, but lose a close one to Alabama. It is still possible the Sugar Bowl takes another SEC team (Florida, if they beat ACC champ FSU, South Carolina, if they beat ACC champ Clemson, or LSU, because the Sugar Bowl committee loves titty showing grannies), but I think they'll pick Georgia, especially if they think they can get a Clemson vs. Georgia game or a re-match of the 1981 game.

For my purposes, I'd love to go to New Orleans and would rate that trip just below missing the birth of my first child, but way above missing the birth of my fourth (because once you've seen one, you can bluff your way around all the rest). For logistics sake, the three other possibles are much easier, but way less fun.

Of course, if we win in Atlanta....

* That isn't to say Georgia wouldn't fall to there even if we win out and lose a close game to Alabama. I'm just saying the only way Georgia is guaranteed to play in one of those two is if we lose to Auburn and Tech.


Anonymous said...

Dont you think the bowlmakers or pickers or whatever would not choose a UGA vs. CU matchup since its the opening game of next year? I love the rivalry and would love to see them play in a bowl, I have many Clemson friends, but since we play them 1st game next year, I would rather see them play someone else in a bowl. I may travel to the bowl game, but if its against Clemson, I definitely wont.

Tyler Dawgden said...

The Sugar Bowl could give a shit about next year's match-ups. They want a game that'll sell out and be a compelling narrative-story. With the long history or Georgia vs. Clemson, it's not hard to see them getting Clemson with their other pick. That does assume Clemson doesn't crap pants themselves and doesn't win the ACC.

Assuming things end as they are (all undefeated teams stay as they are and win their conferences AND Oregon passes KState, as they should if they win out):

The Fiesta will pick an at large before the Sugar, so you have to think Notre Dame will go to play out there. It is possible you could see them in the Rose Bowl against the B1G team (although I think the Rose would really look to get Oregon State or Stanford into that game). That, of course, puts Notre Dame back on the table to play Kansas State in the Fiesta Bowl.

Here is the BCS picking order (as the standings are now):

1&2) BCS Game
3) Sugar
4) Rose
5) Fiesta
6) Sugar
7) Orange

Of course, the ACC champion hosts the Orange, so the likelihood of an FSU/Louisville game is probably going to get everyone all tingly in their nether regions.

There is no rule saying the Sugar has to take an SEC team, although they traditionally have done so when they can. If 'Bama wins out, then the Sugar gets the first pick out of the gate. They could pick Notre Dame and then get an SEC team when they get to pick again.

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