WSLS Bowl Pool

If you didn't get the email, you can join here.

Just like regular season, we are doing confidence picks.  Games close at kickoff, so there are a bunch of games you'll miss out on tomorrow.

TW

Tweet

Kyle McInnis, the 2105 Camping World Independence Bowl Chairman, and University of Georgia graduate, takes a few minutes to chat with me about bowl selections and the life of a bowl chairman.

Subscribe, rate and review us via
iTunes
SoundCloud
RSS

Tweet

Georgia-Louisville info to chew on

@TylerDawgden @CardChronicle Hey guys, here's our #BelkBowl program comparison: http://t.co/pdMXCXYhyA #UGAvsLOU pic.twitter.com/o8Y4iWohz8
— Winsipedia (@Winsipedia) December 26, 2014 

Tweet

Bill Connelly nails it

Speaking of the Western Kentucky-Central Michigan Bahamas Bowl scoring bacchanalia:

I don't want to ever hear someone saying there are too many bowls again. Every bowl is bonus football and a chance to see something you've never seen before. If we wanted to create 64 bowls and let the two worst teams in the country take each other on from an aircraft carrier or from farmland in the middle of Montana, I would watch, just in case.

I've been saying the same thing for years and years. Are there a lot of bowl games, essentially rendering what we remember as the reward for a good season moot? Yes. Are there too many? Heavens no.

If you think the college football playoffs are the best thing for college football because of the TV/entertainment value, I don't understand why you don't see the entertainment value of two random teams fighting for one more win in a random city. Who cares if the teams are 6-6. Bonus football is fun football.

Merry Christmas and pass the bowl games.
TD

Tweet

The College Football Playoffs didn't ruin bowl season

Nice gnashing of teeth, but really?

It's time for the NCAA to quit listening to television's plea for sports programming and eliminate at least half of these post-season games. Make it an honor once again for teams to be invited, and make it exciting for fans to be in the stands cheering for them.

A couple of things to note...

1. Cool story, bro. But as long as it involves money, the NCAA and their membership (the schools) aren't going to walk away.
2. If you ask the players, I bet all of them would rather play in a bowl than not. Yes, even if that bowl is in Detroit.
3. If you ask coaches, they'd universally take a whole extra month of practices rather than sit at home with no player contact while their colleagues are working with their players.

I guess the writer is trying to channel his inner AJC by making it seem like we, the fans, are getting fleeced by bowl games at noon on December 20th. But honestly, I think he is wrong. As a College Football Fan, I'd rather watch Western Michigan vs. Air Force play football than do pretty much anything else I might be voluntarily doing on the Saturday before Christmas. 

TD

Tweet

Belk Bowl Tickets

Tickets? We've got your tickets. Looks like there will be plenty of inventory. I'd expect prices to start falling around the 26th, after folks make up their mind about if they are going.

According to the Belk Bowl's official Twitter account, we'll have the South Side (h/t to Brandon Zimmerman for that).

• Belk Bowl: Louisville vs. Tickets
• 
• Price: $101.00

• Belk Bowl - Packages & Hospitality Tickets
• 
• Price: $223.00

Tweet

SEC Bowl Picture

I'll pick all the bowls later, but here are the SEC match ups, by date:

Duck Commander Independence Bowl Miami vs. South Carolina	Shreveport, La. Independence Stadium	Dec. 27 3:30 p.m.	ABC
AutoZone Liberty Bowl Texas A&M vs. West Virginia	Memphis, Tenn. Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium	Dec. 29 2 p.m.	ESPN
AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl Arkansas vs. Texas	Houston NRG Stadium	Dec. 29 9 p.m.	ESPN
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl Notre Dame vs. LSU	Nashville, Tenn. LP Field	Dec. 30 3 p.m.	ESPN
Belk Bowl Georgia vs. Louisville	Charlotte, N.C. Bank of America Stadium	Dec. 30 6:30 p.m.	ESPN
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl No. 9 Ole Miss vs. No. 6 TCU	Atlanta Georgia Dome	Dec. 31 12:30 p.m.	ESPN
Capital One Orange Bowl No. 7 Mississippi State vs. No. 12 Georgia Tech	Miami Gardens, Fla. Sun Life Stadium	Dec. 31 8 p.m.	ESPN
Outback Bowl Auburn vs. Wisconsin	Tampa, Fla. Raymond James Stadium	Jan. 1 Noon	ESPN2
Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl Missouri vs. Minnesota	Orlando, Fla. Florida Citrus Bowl	Jan. 1 1 p.m.	ABC
Allstate Sugar Bowl College Football Playoff Semifinal No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Ohio State	New Orleans Mercedes-Benz Superdome	Jan. 1 8:30 p.m.	ESPN
TaxSlayer Bowl Iowa vs. Tennessee	Jacksonville, Fla. EverBank Field	Jan. 2 3:20 p.m.	ESPN
Birmingham Bowl East Carolina vs. Florida	Birmingham, Ala. Legion Field	Jan. 3 1 p.m.	ESPN or ESPN2

Tweet

Georgia to play Louisville in the Belk Bowl

Headed to Charlotte, y'all. Here's hoping we see a lot of Grantham face...

I'm ok with this bowl. At least we aren't playing the BigTen.
TD

Tweet

SEC won't allow A&M to play Texas in a bowl game?

In what is the craziest bit of conjecture reporting I've seen in a while, CFT on NBC Sports is reporting the SEC won't allow a Texas A&M vs. Texas matchup in a bowl game. Actually, they are basically rehashing what Chip Brown of Orange Bloods Horns Digest is conjuring up.

Two sources close to the situation told HornsDigest.com SEC officials have indicated to bowls with SEC and Big 12 tie-ins that the SEC won’t support a Texas vs Texas A&M postseason matchup. In short, A&M has too much to lose from a potential loss.

Two sources, y'all! And they are close to the situation.

Maybe this is true, but it would represent the first time in modern history anyone from the SEC office would be 'afraid' of matching up teams purely based on the fear of loss of face. In fact, the SEC has always been most strategic about big picture bowl match ups.

This accusation might sell well in Austin, but it makes no logical sense otherwise, especially considering Texas' very public stance about not playing A&M ever again. The SEC would never tell a bowl to not consider A&M, IMHO, since they have the power to select teams for bowls working with bowl partners. If the conference didn't want A&M against Texas in Houston, they'd simply not put them there, no need for comment.

On top of that, I don't think the conference would be that worried about A&M playing Texas over recruiting advantage. The reasons A&M currently has that advantage don't change with a bowl loss.

TD

Tweet

What do hotel searches tell us about bowl interest?

Interesting piece on hotel searches being a barometer for team's interest in a bowl match up in the Dallas Morning News:

In the entire states of Oklahoma and Alabama, hotel searches for New Orleans were up 379 percent in Oklahoma and 127 percent from Alabama.

While I get what they are doing, I think it completely ignores two very important factors. First, plenty of Alabama fans have contingency plans for the Sugar Bowl every year. Sure, many Tide fans thought they'd be in Pasadena a bit later in January, but I feel pretty confident plenty of them also had plans for New Orleans, especially after the Iron Bowl.

Second, there is a decent number of Alabama fans that have family/weekend places within a very easy drive from New Orleans.

Now, the Peach Bowl is a bit more interesting:

Texas A&M is playing Duke in the Chick-fil-A bowl, and Atlanta-area searches from Texas have increased just 25 percent which is right in line with the increase in North Carolina where many Duke fans will be traveling from.

The Duke thing doesn't surprise me. I think the writer doesn't get the spread of Duke's fan base around the country (also it doesn't appear they get just how not passionate Dukies are about football), especially in Atlanta. Now, the Aggie's numbers are surprising. I'd have thought they'd show out big time to party with JFF for what has to be Manziel's last game as an Aggie. Maybe they are as ready for him to move on as he is to move on.
TD
(h/t Mr. SEC)

Tweet

Gator Bowl ticket update

#UGA says it has sold about 7,000 tickets so far for the Gator Bowl. Nebraska has sold 2,759, per @HuskerExtraBC .
— Marc Weiszer (@marcweiszer) December 13, 2013

UGA has purchased about 1900 for player's families, band, and administration. Assuming Nebraska has purchased a similar amount, the Cornhuskers have sold around 1000 tickets to boosters/students/ticket holders. Even if Nebraska's number doesn't include those the school is holding for their uses, that is a really low number.

Not sure it is a referendum on the bowl or Pelini (or both), but it'll definitely be a very pro-UGA crowd in Jacksonville.
TD

Tweet

Going to be a pro-UGA crowd in Jacksonville

Because the Nebraska fans aren't coming.

Executive Travel's Steve Glenn said it's the first time in 27 years that he's had a charter to a bowl game cancelled.

I wonder if Nebraska's Jacksonville fan club will get to ramp it up to an 8.
TD

Tweet

Bowl tickets

When Stewart Mandel starts on how terrible the bowls are for the schools, don't buy it. Much to Mandel's chagrin, folks ain't losing money:

Bowl Money By Conference, 2012-13

Conference	Bowl Payout Received	Institutional Bowl Expenses
SEC	$52,278,677	$14,762,565
Big 12	$43,583,877	$11,673,620
Big Ten	$43,056,054	$13,056,498
Pac-12	$41,233,877	$11,456,487
ACC	$36,708,878	$10,122,047
Big East	$32,108,877	$6,902,285
MAC	$15,700,213	$4,108,580
Independents	$7,872,485	$5,874,842
C-USA	$7,020,983	$5,465,101
Sun Belt	$6,850,200	$2,359,094
WAC	$6,160,133	$1,059,173
Mountain West	$5,709,267	$3,441,389
Other distribution totals	$2,550,000	$0

All the conferences are doing ok, especially when you remember 

Schools generally receive expense allowances and participation money for going to a bowl, depending on each conference's bowl distribution formula. At a later date, every team in a conference usually gets pooled money from the rest of the league's bowl revenue.

Though, as Blutarsky points out:

But at least they got those pesky ticket allotment requirements lowered. That’s good news, right? Well, maybe not so much.

Hey, UConn, we are looking at you when FSU fans have ordered double the amount of their allotted tickets for the BCS Championship game. On the other hand, the Gator Bowl's ticket sales aren't exactly hot, at least based on the aftermarket prices. You can get into the lower level for under $50 on the Nebraska side (nearly exactly where I sat for Georgia-Florida this year). Lower level on Georgia's side starts at about $60.

The 'not so much' Blutarky speaks of is that more of those bowls will be selling tickets to local interests, including those that work in the street level after market sales game. While that hurts some bowls like the Music City or Advocare v100, it doesn't matter a bit to the Peach or Cotton, because those places always pull big crowds.

I guess as long as those sellout streaks remain alive and the conferences make bank, match-ups don't really matter anyway.
TD

Tweet

If bowls are so bad for teams, why is a conference offering a bowl money to take their teams?

I might be convinced that there are too many bowl games. Don't get me wrong, watching Marshall and Maryland play on random Friday wouldn't normally do it for me. However, knowing that college football will so leave us for several long months, it is sufficient methadone. However, there are those that hate bowls. And I don't get that.

The biggest argument is that it is terrible for the schools, that they lose money. Then why is a conference offering cash to bowls to take their teams? Authorized by the presidents of the schools that bowls are supposed to be bad for. I'm looking at you Sun Belt.

Look, it is a fun exhibition for the kids. They get some swag, the teams get a few more practices under their belt. And half of the teams in bowl games end up the season with a win. As a bonus, we college football fans have more games to enjoy. Nothing wrong with that.

Evidently the Sun Belt agrees.

TD

Tweet

SEC Bowl Matchups

Full #SEC bowl matchups pic.twitter.com/s0dQ4plxSu
— The SEC Logo (@SEC_Logo) December 9, 2013

Well done SEC. No compelling match-ups outside of BCS.
TD

Tweet

SEC Bowl games under 2014 bowl rules

UPDATED: Because I didn't take into account the Sugar being part of the playoff rotation in 2014.

For fun, I'll take a look at who would play in the games under the 2014 bowl arrangement using the 2012 season.

Playoffs:
Alabama
Florida

Not hard to say Alabama. As for Florida, well, Florida gets in. And probably plays Alabama. I'll see where we are with the system that is coming, but it is hard for me to see them putting two teams from the same conference that haven't faced each other in the regular season on opposite sides of the bracket. In fact, I'd bet they'll have an unwritten rule that any two teams from the same conference will face in the first round. They'll play in New Orleans.

So...now I've gotten that out of my system.

Orange: Georgia vs. Florida State. Hey, good times on the beach, amirite? With Notre Dame in the playoffs and no other B1G team close to the top 10 in the BCS, the Dawgs end up here.
Peach: LSU vs. Clemson. Let the bitching begin anew.
Cotton: Texas A&M vs Oklahoma. Nothing to see here but Spurrier sending Bret Bielema Jimmy John's delivery to Bielma's house during the game, because it IS so fast he'll freak.
Capital One: South Carolina vs. Nebraska. Taylor Martinez gets his helmet taken off by Clowney, who promptly gets ejected for life.

So that leaves Vandy, Mississippi State, and Ole Miss bowl eligible for the pool. For my money, Mississippi State plays Texas in the Texas Bowl. Vandy probably ends up in Nashville, since they don't travel. Ole Miss plays someone like Georgia Tech NC State in the Belk.

So yeah, you can see where it goes badly for bowls like Outback, Gator, and Liberty.

Even if the Orange doesn't take an SEC team, it only helps one other bowl. So South Carolina gets into the pool, meaning Outback or Gator doesn't get so screwed.

Thoughts?
TD

Tweet

SEC Bowl Picture in 2014

Playoff Bowl Rotation:
2014: Rose, Sugar
2015: Orange, Cotton
2016: Peach, Fiesta

They'll rotate on that schedule. Below, I'll address what those bowls will do when they aren't in the playoff rotation.

Sugar (when not hosting playoffs): Highest ranked SEC team not in the playoffs vs. highest ranked BigXII team not in the playoffs.
Orange (when not hosting playoffs): SEC is in a pool with the Big10 and Notre Dame, to play the highest ranked ACC team not in the playoffs.
Capital One: First selection for the SEC teams left vs. Big10 (or ACC if a Big10 team goes to the Orange Bowl).

The bowls below will have an SEC team slotted, as decided by the league office. Yes, you got that right. Instead of "helping" bowls decide who they will select, the conference will actually select the teams for the bowls. Records won't matter as much as geography and match ups.

AutoZone Liberty: SEC vs. Big XII
Belk: SEC vs. ACC
Franklin American Mortgage Music City: SEC vs. ACC or Big Ten
Outback: SEC vs. Big Ten
Taxslayer.com Gator: SEC vs. ACC or Big Ten
Texas: SEC vs. Big XII

The SEC made a grab for bowls in NFL stadiums in their footprint. And Memphis. A couple of points:

• In years the Peach and Cotton don't host semi-finals, they get to pick from a number of teams, including non-playoff competitors and others. Conceivably, in years the Sugar is hosting the playoffs, you could see both of those bowls fighting over the second or third SEC team. In reality, I'd bet on a gentleman's agreement that SEC East teams play in Atlanta and SEC West teams play in Dallas.
• In an average year, the SEC will face three BigXII teams, three ACC teams and two Big Ten teams, outside of the playoffs. Meh.
• Why in the blue blazes aren't we looking at playing in a new locale? Hello, Las Vegas? Can you imagine a bowl game there?
• And Memphis? Just a weird grouping there. I'm not excited about Charlotte, but that makes sense in the context of the NFL stadium. I'm guessing AutoZone put up big $$$ to get them into the pool picks.
• I'm starting to think the SEC is afraid to play the Pac-12. I wouldn't want to look at the Sun Bowl, but San Diego? Hell, even the Outback would be more interesting if we were facing someone beside a team we've probably already played three times in 12 years. I know neither conference wants to go too far from home without a compelling reason to do so. I vote Las Vegas.

A couple of bowls with traditional SEC tie ins aren't in the pool and haven't been mentioned. The Advocare and BBVA bowls are still in the running for SEC teams.  Advocare is contracted this year to get an SEC vs. ACC match, if one is available. the BBVA is owned by ESPN and plays about three miles from SEC headquarters. IF there is an odd man out, it won't be the BBVA. In reality, I'd expect both to end up with contracts to take SEC teams in 2014 and beyond, if available. In reality, it is hard to see a scenario where those two would have more than two teams to pick from and it is more likely both will get shut out at least half the years. 

Overall, I think this is an unambitious exercise. For fun, tonight I'll look at who would have played in these bowls if we'd been doing this in 2012.

TD

See also:
Bowling, 2014-2000

Tweet

Dennis Dodd on College Football: Studio Football

Like him or not, I think he's on to something:

What we're left with is "studio football" -- a term coined (by me) to describe how far we've come in monetizing the game. Attendance, increasingly, doesn't matter.

Probably because I said the same thing 11 months ago in the context of the 9 game SEC schedule. I still think I am right about this:

if the money is right, the stadium is merely a prop for the show happening on the field.

Why would they care about a few hundred thousand dollars when ESPN is offering hundreds of millions? The bowls are already suffering, at least in terms of match-ups, due to this phenomenon. Bowls that have failed have done so because they have tried to go up against other bowls or better programming  The ones that are surviving are the ones that work with ESPN to be creative in their air time.

Think about the New Mexico Bowl at 11:00am Pacific time the week after the regular season ended. Why kick off then? Because millions of sports fans were asked to choose between that game (which was attended by fewer than 25K people), a random NBA game, and an early season out of conference NCAA basketball game.

More people tuned in to watch a 7-5 Arizona and 7-5 Nevada in Albuquerque than to watch Butler beat #1 Indiana. Bowls are no longer about compelling match ups. They are about providing higher revenue blocks of programming for ESPN. A commercial in a four hour block of college football is more expensive than one in a four hour block of 30 for 30 re-runs or a random Sacramento vs. Utah game.

Dodd also sees the law of diminishing return at play. Importantly, he thinks that could end up being a limiting factor in the size of a college football playoff:

The playoff games themselves are guaranteed ratings and financial winners. As mentioned, the four-team playoff has been priced at $500 million per season. Would an eight-team playoff be worth $1 billion? That's where industry analyst say the game may reach the law of diminishing returns.

I'm not optimistic that is the case, but you can bet the same people who found reason it is good for college football to have a playoff will find good reason to not expand it if there isn't more money involved.
TD

Tweet

0-2 Against the SEC, but Number 1 in their minds

26/43, 320 yards, 3 TDs, 3 Ints

36 runs, 83 yards, 0 TDs

Those are Taylor Martinez's stats in his two starts against SEC teams. Both of those were in the CapitalOne Bowl.  I get the OMG!1!!!SECD!11!!! fatigue   But that fatigue is rooted in reality.

Georgia, who despite Nebraska's protestations to the contrary, isn't one of the better defenses in the SEC. We are 6th in the conference. True, we do boast one of the better scoring defenses in the conference. And we held Nebraska to below their season average in points (even more so when you consider one of their TDs was a pick 6). We held them to below their season average in rushing offense. We held them to below their season average in passing offense.

So, yeah, I guess we are like a B1.5G team.

Hey, whatever helps the folks in Lincoln get through another off season of having lost to a team with lesser talent from a league that has only won six national championships in a row. When Northwestern's win over Mississippi State in the Gator Bowl is your conference's signature bowl win, talk is all you have.

TD

Also see:
-Blutarsky's take on the comments, Get the Picture
-Chatelain: Late fade leaves Huskers facing another uncomfortable offseason, Omaha World-Herald-Steven Sipple: Pelini makes his pitch. Do you still Bo-lieve?, Lincoln Journal Star

Tweet

BCS Bowl Picks

Rose Bowl: Wisconsin v. Stanford, January 1st at 5pm, ESPN
All you need to know about this game is Stanford's rush defense. Wisconsin has done ok finding ways to run, but the rush defense they are facing is like Michigan State's. Wisconsin only gained 19 yards on the ground against the Spartans.  Wisconsin is over matched here and will lose big.

Orange Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. Florida State, January 1st at 8:30pm, ESPN
It is completely dependent on which Florida State team shows up. If the one the crapped themselves against Florida shows, they lose. If the one that played a solid game against an over matched Georgia Tech, they win. Northern Illinois will show up to play. Oh, and Florida State's schedule wasn't that much harder than Northern Illinois.

The Huskies can win this game. Seriously. If you don't think so, think Utah vs. Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. I'm just not willing to say they will.

Sugar Bowl: Louisville vs. Florida, January 2nd at 8:30pm, ESPN 
Unless Florida discovered some offense, this one could go badly for the Gators. Outside of Florida State inexplicably running the here, have the ball offense, Florida has struggled. Louisville has scored against everyone, except the last few weeks. Anyway, I guess I have to say I'd love to see the Cardinals win.

Fiesta Bowl: Oregon vs. Kansas State, January 3rd at 8:30pm, ESPN
This'll be like a NASCAR race. Just wait until the last lap to see who crashes and who pulls ahead. I like Oregon to win 77-74.

Tweet