All - SEC Team

It doesn't look like the coaches believe in the Georgia hype. More Florida players (thought Callaway was picked on offense and special teams) and as many UT players. They also picked Jalen Hurts as their first team QB, so take that for what it is worth.

First Team Preseason All-SEC 
Nick Chubb, Georgia
Trenton Thompson, Georgia
Roquan Smith, Georgia

Second Team Preseason All-SEC 
TE Isaac Nauta, Georgia
Isaiah Wynn, Georgia*
Dominick Sanders, Georgia

Third Team Preseason All-SEC 
Jonathan Ledbetter, Georgia
Lorenzo Carter, Georgia

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Chubb Second Team All-American

The only Dawg to make the list.  Bama has the most selections with five. Don't look now, but Florida and Auburn have All-American kickers.

TW

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WSLS Podcast Ep. 089: Season 3 Opener

Will and Tony discuss Scott's uniform habit, coach speak, Mike Gundy's hair cut, and offensive line play in our Season 3 opener.
 

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Pumping the Brakes?

Let's say you are vanilla college football team. Let's say you have a young head coach. Let's say you have this returning from last season's team:

• 2nd year starting QB 
• All but 200 rushing yards from last season, including two RBs with 3-1000 yard rushing seasons between them.
• Nearly 90% of tackling production returning

But, let's say you also have big question marks at WR, poorish recruiting and attrition, and OL, because of absolutely poor recruiting two to four years ago.

What would you think about this team?

I'm trying to be realistic about Georgia's season this year. We have a sneaky tough schedule. We have a young QB who is looking to have that game where it all works. We have an OL that has a lot to prove, but hasn't shown they can. We have a coaching staff that showed flashes of brilliance (North Carolina, Auburn) and maddening glimpses of youth (Vandy, Georgia Tech)

We also play in a division with two of the (assumed) top teams starting new QBs, three teams rebuilding defenses, two teams decimated by the draft, and three teams that had terrible recruiting classes two to four years ago.

All of this is to say, I'm not sold on UGA as the prohibitive favorite to win the East. I'm certain not sold on anyone picking UGA to open 0-2.

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Snarky Seth Emerson is my favorite Seth Emerson

Boy, Seth is bringing the header heat in his "Georgia's Most Important Players 2017" piece on the kicking game:

ATHENS — By now, many fans assumed, Rodrigo Blankenship and his goggles would be somewhere else, chased off the Georgia football team because of the lack of a scholarship, as well as the recruitment of seemingly every available well-footed person with college eligibility.

But, he isn't wrong.

Nor is this assessment:

WHY WHOEVER WINS THE JOB IS IMPORTANT: Because in the average season, the kicker decides a couple games, perhaps more.  

For my money, we win Vandy (though that return to open the game isn't on the kicker, per se) and Georgia Tech, missing a 42 yard FG.  More importantly, Georgia punted from inside their forty in places Smart could have taken, and needed, the points (Tennessee game comes to mind).

Also, I'm not rooting for Blankenship over Martin or vice versa. I'm rooting for 60+% touch-backs, missing inside the 30 only because of poor snaps/handles, and enough leg and consistency to give the coach options on longer kicks.

I'm sure I'll disagree later, but it feels like 'Kicker' at number 8 is low.
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So, about Bellamy and Carter

This exchange about the excitement I expressed in Ep 087 of the "Waitn' Since Last Saturday" Podcast over our returning outside line backers

@JawaviFilms @TylerDawgden @williamfleitch I think they're nice players who try hard. I'm just not sure they're as good as UGA fans want to believe. Expecting big #s in year 4/5? Iffy

— Parrish Walton (@ParrishWalton) May 25, 2017

got me thinking, am I, as a fan, over rating Bellamy and Carter? This isn't to prove Walton wrong, as much as to think through why I'm excited about their season.

Let's star with the basics. If anyone thinks I believe Carter and Bellamy will become Leonard Floyd and Jordan Jenkins, let's pump the brakes. I would say that both Bellamy and Carter are on athletically on par with Jenkins, with Carter having potential to reach Floyd's use of athletic ability to change games. In fact, we saw some of that in prior years.

Yes, I know this is a highlight video, so it shows, you know, highlights, but just looking, I'd say Carter's first step and speed, at least in his 2014 and 15 seasons (this was posted in August of 2016) were pretty good. Remember, 2015 was the season he got ejected against Vandy and looked tentative the rest of the season. Looking at his stats from 2016, I see a guy that had 44 tackles (ten fewer than Floyd had in his next to last year) and 6 TFL (3.5 fewer than Floyd had). Also, you can argue Floyd drew more offensive attention than Carter.

You can also argue that Jeremy Pruitt's defense was more predicated on the OLBs being aggressive at pushing up field than Mel Tucker's, so that skews the TLF stats, IMO. 

That is all to say my expectation for Carter is that he'll be an All-SEC player in 2017. Could he be a top ten NFL pick like Floyd? Maybe, but that's a really high bar. I absolutely believe he will be drafter higher than Jordan Jenkins was (83rd pick) in the 2018 draft.

Looking at Bellamy, I see a guy who is always around the ball.  Yes, I know that is crap football speak for jumping on the pile, but that is essentially what Parrish was saying in his tweet. I also see a guy that has steadily increased his production to 55 tackles and 9 TFLs in 2016. Yes, those are nearly mirror stats for Floyd. Again, Bellamy drew less attention than Floyd.

I think he'll be drafted around where Jenkins was, with the potential to take his game to a higher level where he could be drafted as high or higher than Carter.

The trick for both Bellamy and Carter is getting better at pass/run recognition, the one place I think they are not as solid at as Floyd or Jenkins were in their penultimate seasons.

Let me finish by saying I think Walton's view isn't invalid, as both Carter and Bellamy have not performed to expectations, expectations set pretty high by Floyd and Jenkins (and I'm not saying his expectations are that; I don't know). If UGA fans think both will be Floyd, I don't see that, but could be proven wrong. I do think both Bellamy and Carter have the potential, and potential I think they'll reach, to be top 4-6 OLBs in the conference.

Now, about depth at OLB......

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Lambert to start

Hopefully, I'm as wrong about the game as I am about Eason starting.

For a very level headed treatment of the decision, check out Seth Emerson's piece on it. Very much where I am.

Related: Schlabach says Eason will definitely play.
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It's Gameweek!

Yeah, baby!

Ok, a couple of things:

• Can we, for at least one week, stop with the hand wringing over 'how many games does Kirby have to win' to have a successful season? 
• If you believe that Mark Richt didn't win enough, then no matter how many games Kirby wins, unless he wins them all for ever, it won't be enough. 
• If you believe Mark Richt should have been fired because 'he can't win the big one,' then unless we only lose on last second touchdowns to the national champion, you won't be happy. 
• If you believe Mark Richt shouldn't have been fired because he won plenty of games and we did things the right way, you aren't going to be happy because Kirby Smart isn't Mark Richt.
• My point is, as natural as it is to compare 2016 UGA to Mark Richt's tenure, it isn't Mark Richt's tenure. Kirby Smart will rise and fall on whatever metrics the AD and those that have his ear set. 
• It doesn't matter how terrible the SEC East is, if we aren't outpacing the other teams at stuff, we are part of the problem, not the solution.
• Either Jacob Eason starts or he doesn't. Again with the hand wringing. Either he gives Georgia the best shot to win, as decided by the professional coaches who are at practice every day, or he doesn't. If he does, he starts.
• Same goes for Nick Chubb, [FILL IN THE BLANK] at receiver, place kicker, and offensive line.
• Give up on whatever SEC vs. the world narrative there is. The only SEC team I want to win Saturday is Georgia.

Ok, let's celebrate, y'all. Our long walk through the off season wilderness is nearly done.

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Dear Kirby...

In light of this, can I point you in the direction of this:

(courtesy of Advanced Football Analytics)

As Bill Connelly puts it 

Points Per Trip inside 40 ("Scoring Opportunities")	% of 2013 games	Win%	Avg. Scoring margin
5.5 to 7 points	18.6%	72.8%	15.1
5 to 5.5 points	13.2%	68.4%	11.9
4.5 to 5 points	13.3%	62.6%	7.4
4 to 4.5 points	13.7%	51.8%	1.7
3.5 to 4 points	8.5%	50.4%	-3.9
3 to 3.5 points	12.5%	38.5%	-7.6
2 to 3 points	12.1%	23.1%	-14.1
1 to 2 points	5.0%	4.9%	-25.8
0 to 1 points	3.0%	0.0%	-36.0

One other thing about this table: field goals are basically failures. They are obviously useful at times in close games, but settling for field goals is a losing strategy as a whole. Even with a good kicker, averaging three points per scoring opportunity will win you about one-third of your games. (Keep this in mind the next time your team kicks an 18-yard field goal.)

I get you need to have a serviceable kicking option for many situations. I'd posit that those situations don't include 4th and less than four from inside the 35. Of course, your mileage may vary, but I'm also not going to incur the wrath of the Dawgvent if it doesn't work out that one time.
TW

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Jerry Palm likes UGA

So much for Tennessee for SEC Champion....

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF
BOWL	DATE	LOCATION	MATCHUP	PREDICTION
Championship Bowl	Jan. 9	Tampa, Fla.	Semifinal winners	TBD
Fiesta Bowl	Dec. 31	Glendale, Ariz.	Semifinal	Oklahoma vs. Notre Dame
Peach Bowl	Dec. 31	Atlanta, Ga.	Semifinal	Clemson vs. Alabama

Nothing too out of line there. Seems like safe picks, right? Then he drops the rest of the Selection Committee Bowl games:

SELECTION COMMITTEE BOWL GAMES
BOWL	DATE	LOCATION	MATCHUP	PREDICTION
Sugar Bowl	Jan. 2	New Orleans, La.	Big 12 vs SEC	Okla. State vs. LSU
Rose Bowl	Jan. 2	Pasadena, Calif.	Big Ten vs Pac-12	Ohio State vs. Stanford
Cotton Bowl	Jan. 2	Arlington, Tex.	At-large vs. At-large	Iowa vs. Houston
Orange Bowl	Dec. 30	Miami, Fla.	ACC vs. Big Ten/SEC/ND	Florida State vs. Georgia

That's right, he's got Georgia in Miami. If this comes true, wait for Georgia fans freak about how this is another crappy Florida bowl game.

Don't worry UT friends, Palm has you playing on New Years Day in Orlando:

OTHER BOWL GAMES
BOWL	DATE	LOCATION	MATCHUP	PREDICTION
Outback Bowl	Jan. 2	Tampa, Fla.	Big Ten vs. SEC	Michigan vs. Ole Miss
TaxSlayer Bowl	Dec. 31	Jacksonville, Fla.	ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC	North Carolina vs. Florida
Citrus Bowl	Dec. 31	Orlando, Fla.	ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC	Michigan State vs. Tennessee

Liberty Bowl	Dec. 30	Memphis, Tenn.	Big 12 vs. SEC	West Virginia vs. Kentucky
Belk Bowl	Dec. 29	Charlotte, N.C.	ACC vs. SEC	Virginia Tech vs. Texas A&M
Texas Bowl	Dec. 28	Houston, Tex.	Big 12 vs. SEC	Texas vs. Arkansas

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Interesting Over Unders for win totals

Courtesy of Bovada. The first that jumps is Tennessee at ten and LSU at 10.5. The Dawgs at 9.5 feels high, too. I agree with Blutarsky that much of that is due to the uncertainty of depth, which is important. The rest is that of the players dealing with an nearly full turnover of the coaching staff and the lost coaching time of having to get everyone on the same page.

I'm not prepared to say Georgia won't win ten regular season games, but I'm not prepared to way they will win more than nine, either.

2016 Regular Season Wins - Alabama Crimson Tide        

Over                                         9½  (-280, 5/14)

Under                                       9½ (+180, 9/5)

2016 Regular Season Wins - Florida Gators          

Over                                         8  (-225, 4/9)

Under                                       8 (+160, 8/5)

2016 Regular Season Wins - Georgia Bulldogs    

Over                                         9½  (+120, 6/5)

Under                                       9½   (-160, 5/8)

2016 Regular Season Wins - Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets             

Over                                         6½  (-140, 5/7)

Under                                       6½ (EVEN, 1/1)

2016 Regular Season Wins - LSU Tigers  

Over                                         10½  (EVEN, 1/1)

Under                                       10½  (-140, 5/7)

2016 Regular Season Wins - Miami Hurricanes  

Over                                         8  (-130, 13/10)

Under                                       8 (EVEN, 1/1)

2016 Regular Season Wins - Mississippi Rebels 

Over                                         9½   (-140, 5/7)

Under                                       9½  (+110, 11/10)

2016 Regular Season Wins - Mississippi State Bulldogs 

Over                                         9½  (+150, 3/2)

Under                                       9½   (-200, 1/2)

2016 Regular Season Wins - North Carolina Tar Heels    

Over                                         9  (-140, 5/7)

Under                                       9  (EVEN, 1/1)

2016 Regular Season Wins - South Carolina Gamecocks

Over                                         6½  (+200, 2/1)

Under                                       6½   (-300, 1/3)

2016 Regular Season Wins – Tennessee Volunteers

Over                                         10 (+120, 6/5)

Under                                       10  (-160, 5/8)

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Dawgs picked to finish third in the East by media

I guess it is time for Butch to put up or, you know, get more bricks.

.@SEC West Prediction:

1. #RollTide
2. #GeauxTigers
3. #HottyToddy
4. #GigEm
5. #WooPig
6. #WarEagle
7. #HailState pic.twitter.com/2AIcIMj6aM

— SEC (@SEC) July 14, 2016

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Oh, we have more than one position? Depth Chart Released

Yes. That is snark.
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Greyson Bob Lambert to start

For my money, it just means he's out there for the first series. While it is fun to read lots into who takes the first snap, I wouldn't...yet.

As for Lambert, he graduated UVA in three years while playing football. We know he's smart enough to do this. His stats were....interesting:

154-261 (59% completion); 6.3 yards/attempt, 10TDs-11Ints, 181.3 yards/game

That 6.3 yards per attempt really gets me. Hutson went for nearly 8 y/att last year. Some of that is UVA passing attack guerrilla skirmish. Much of that is the players Lambert had around him. Especially the rushing game. For reference, Nick Chubb nearly out rushed UVA by himself.

Just stuff to think about as we watch closely on Monday.
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New guys on campus: playing or not?

A little tradition where Tyler gives a prediction about what newcomers will play. My greatest hit...

One last one that I just cannot figure out....
Todd Gurley (RB) - It is impossible to say what will happen with Gurley.  I had him in the absolutely going to play list. I had him on the absolutely red shirt list. The latest reports out of camp are that he has done a great job mastering the play book. He got the best vote of confidence Bobo knows how to give when he was said to be 'picking up blocking schemes' well. If pressed on it, I'd say he plays, but it really is wholly dependent on how Boo/Richard does, how well Marshall does, and how well the other two FBs (Hicks and Merritt Hall) do, and how strongly Gurley comes on in camp.

So, yeah. Pretty much ignore everything else in this post. Still, I've gotta do this for my own edification.

A caveat, I think we'll play a bunch of freshmen through the season. Coach Richt has shown a willingness to put his best players on the field over the past few season. I don't expect that to change, though in fairness to my prediction in 2012, that was still a thing then.

I expect Thomson, McGraw, Amechi, Roquan, and Patrick all to start games at some point this season, with McGraw possibly starting UL-Monroe. Jake Ganus will play a bunch as well. On the offensive side, Goodwin and Chigbu are going to have substantive playing time, if not starts this season. Look for some of those young OLinemen to get plenty of game minutes through the season. Same goes for Shaq Wilson at WR.

Now for the guys I think will get red shirted (since this is really a post for us to mock in a year or two):

Mirko Jurkovic (OL) - Ok, he's hurt, so I know he won't play. I had to take a gimme first.

Tae Crowder (RB) - We've had some biblical level stuff go down if Crowder gets his red shirt taken off. I did not meant that as blaspheme, honest.

Grayson Lambert (QB) - Just seeing if y'all are still paying attention.

Johnathan Abram (S) - I haven't heard very much about him, good or bad, out of Pruitt. Which probably means he's as likely to start as to be Dak Prescott on the Scout team.

DaQuan Hawkins (DL) - Same as above, plus he didn't get to campus until like a week ago or something.

So, yeah. I guess I need to downgrade Georgia because we'll likely start 17 freshmen and two transfers, right?
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Ess Eee See!

Take a look at this:

Here's a simple sim as one way to look at 2015 strength-of-schedule. The impact on expected CFB outcomes is dramatic. pic.twitter.com/eNPEzQsRRM

— Massey-Peabody (@MasseyPeabody) August 26, 2015

In one picture you can see what computers think of the SEC's strength of schedule.

You have to go to 15th (USC) to find a non-SEC team that is expected to win more games against an 'average' schedule than their actual schedule. The upside? Georgia has the smallest spread of the ten SEC teams in the MP index top 25.

Also, this easily illustrates why all 61 AP voters put Ohio State as their number one team.
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Throw the damn ball, Schotty!

Matt Brown at Sports on Earth's assessment of UGA's offense:

Schottenheimer has much to prove after an underwhelming stint in the NFL, and for the second year in a row Georgia will have a new quarterback, tapping sophomore Brice Ramsey, junior Faton Bauta or Virginia graduate transfer Greyson Lambert. A limited passing game did hinder the Bulldogs at times last year, but given the state of the running game, we shouldn't worry about the Georgia offense right now. Somehow, Georgia already proved that it can keep rolling without Todd Gurley, as Nick Chubb was phenomenal when given the lead role in the second half of last season. Chubb ran 219 times for 1,547 yards and 14 touchdowns, averaging over seven yards per carry. He's one of the most talented all-around players in college football -- a legitimate Heisman candidate -- and he has one of the best, most experienced offensive lines in front of him, led by Greg Pyke and John Theus. This run game will keep rolling, and it will be bolstered by hopefully having a healthier Sony Michel and Keith Marshall.

Most of agree about what opening up the passing game does for UGA's run game, but the reason I'm so high on Georgia is that we don't necessarily have to sling the ball around to get that bump. We only need to have the threat of a deep ball that we didn't have last year to do so. Remember, Todd Gurley completed Georgia's longest passing play of the season last year. Give Schotty a QB that he can feel comfortable with calling for those downfield pass plays and we are in business.

Boy, I can't wait for someone in my section to yell 'throw the damn ball, Schotty!'

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CBS is all in on Georgia

Nothing too crazy out of them, though Dodd thinks the SEC won't get anyone into the playoffs if UGA beats Alabama in the SECCG. They are all still on Auburn, so take that with a grain of salt.

Not sure what this means, if anything, for UGA to have more CBS 3:30 kickoffs, but it bears watching.

Also, most of them think LSU will be over rated.

2015 SEC PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH
	DODD	SOLOMON	PALM	FORNELLI	HINNEN	PATTERSON	KALLAND
EAST DIVISION
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
WEST DIVISION
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.

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