Georgia's Defense in the Rose Bowl

"Big 12 don't play defense."

"Oklahoma haven't played anyone with our defensive speed."

"They don't face any SEC type defenses in the Big 12."

Be honest, how many times have you said that in the past 15 years? This season? Since December 3rd?

We Georgia fans have been raised on the religion of 'Defense Wins Championships, Inc.™.' Well, now we'll have a small sample size, but a sample none the less, to test the theory (mantra, really) that they can't handle SEC defenses.

I'd posit that Georgia's defense hasn't faced an offense like Oklahoma's since Auburn's 2103 National Champion runner up. Yes, Auburn's 2017 offense is pretty good, and I feel comfortable saying what Georgia faced on the Plains in November is a close as we've seen this season. In the linked article, I noted it was more about the short passing game, supplemented with timely running plays, that makes Oklahoma's offense tick.

There are three things Georgia needs to do well to slow them down:

1. Make Mayfield uncomfortable in the pocket with a four man rush. Call this the Iowa State plan.
2. Play super competent assignment defense behind them. Call this the Mississippi State plan.
3. Keep Oklahoma in difficult field position choices. Call this the SEC Championship Game plan.

Oklahoma will score points.  The key is to keep them from scoring TDs on all drives.  Blutarsky hit on this last week. The Sooners will score points. Oklahoma has punted 36 times all season, an average of three per game.  They are only giving the ball back two times a game between turnovers and failed 4th down conversions. That means they are scoring on about 9 drives a game.

Iowa State put Oklahoma's QB in difficult run/pass situations because of LB Joel Lanning's game.  He constantly put Mayfield in 'do I pass or do I run situations' on the underneath passes.  Mayfield got his yards, but Lanning's coverage of TE Mark Andrews gave the Cyclones' front the time it needed to cause Mayfield to run...into Lanning's waiting arms.  

The other two points are pretty self evident based on what Georgia did in their games against Mississippi State and Auburn in the SEC Championship.  I'm not comparing Fitzgerald to Mayfield as much as I'm comparing what Oklahoma wants to do with what Mississippi State tried in our game. Oklahoma doesn't have as much designed QB run built into their offense as they have the option for the QB to get chunks of yardage on runs built in if the pass isn't there. Georgia forced Fitzgerald to win the game with his arm, then took that option away from him. 

We did much the same in the SEC Championship against Stiham, but also closing some of the Auburn play book by keeping them in 2nd and 3rd and long plays. 

Now is the put up or shut up time for SEC Defense as the King of All Football Things trope. I'm still noodling out how this goes, but I'm pretty sure it's going to be as much about slowing rather than stopping Oklahoma.

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Tennessee Path to Victory

Tonight, when Scott and I recorded the Tennessee preview of the Waitin' Since Last Saturday podcast, we talked about the Tennessee path to victory.  While I went on about protecting the ball and being successful at finding plays that allow us to score TDs instead of FGs, I was thinking about Bill Connelly's Five Factors:

Five Factors

		Offense		Defense
	Category	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Nat'l Avg.
EFFICIENCY	Success Rate	40.8%	75	30.4%	9	40.1%
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.39	14	0.92	5	1.17
FIELD POSITION	Avg. FP	30.5	63	28.5	60	29.6
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	5.39	19	3.29	16	4.38
TURNOVER MARGIN	EXPECTED	2.05	32	Turnover Luck (PPG): -3.81
	ACTUAL	-1	73

The tl;dr version is that on offense, Georgia is pedestrian at gaining the requisite number of yards to be in a position to get a first down in a series of four downs, and very good at explosive plays and converting trips inside the 40 yard line into touchdowns.  On defense, we are wrecking shop everywhere.

That isn't a surprise considering that the offensive line and edge blocking remains the one thing this team isn't excelling at.  We are much better than last year and improving, but it remains that one 'yeah, but' when you start talking about the eyeball test for the team as a whole.  Essentially, that is reflected in the advanced stats as efficiency.  

Tennessee's Dline is their best unit. The offensive line and Chaney have their work cut out for them, again, to find plays to neutralize that unit.  

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See also -

• Something Blutarsky notes, too.
• From a deeper dive by Connelly.

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To Answer a Question

One thing that keeps popping up when I get asked what I think about 2017 Georgia Football® is what makes me think Kirby can take a significant step forward in year 2 as a coach.

Thankfully, William McFadden and Blutarsky does the heavy lifting for me. Reading McFadden's feed yesterday (NSFW for Bulldog fans), I had exactly the same feeling I had leaving Vaught-Hemingway last year: We Mark Richt because his teams were not prepared in big games to hire one that hasn't learned to prepare a team for a big game.

Let me preface this by saying, I almost never say that Kirby has already learned how to do that, just that I believe he can and think he will. That is what all of us are counting on, right?

Because stuff like this

Maurice Smith got caught sticking his nose into the backfield and the Bulldogs paid the price. Rebels go up 45-0 #UGAFilmReview pic.twitter.com/wKxKumqwG1

— William McFadden (@willmcfadden) June 13, 2017

will happen this year, because we are likely to have several 'big' games, including one on the road on September 9th that will be, at worst, the 3rd biggest game of the college football day, and in prime time.

The biggest hole in Kirby's coaching resume when we hired him is that he never had a head coaching gig, and he didn't bring in someone that had recently been a head coach to address that. As head coach, you can talk about how it was done at 'Bama, but until you actually find the buttons to push, you are really just trying to paint your dog crimson and hope he looks like an elephant.

To put it another way, Ole Miss wasn't 45-0 better than Georgia last season. Hugh Freeze was 45-0 better at getting his team ready to play a highly ranked opponent with a chance to make some news than Kirby was.

I think Kirby Smart can be that coach, or he won't be coach at Georgia for nearly as long as Mark Richt was.
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Seeing the Forest and the Trees: Coaching Edition

A little nugget caught my eye out of Dabo's day after the National Championship game interview:

“Five seconds, yes, we run the same play,” Swinney said. “I felt like it was going to be a four-second play. It’s going to be in and out. I felt like I could get a timeout with one second. Less than (five seconds remaining), we kick the field goal, and we go into overtime and see what happens.
“Our mentality was to play to win. I was trying to hang on to a timeout. I was just kind of guarding it with my life. That’s why we clocked the ball with 22 seconds, because I didn’t want to get in a situation where we’re having to run what we call red field goal. The clock is running, you try to run your guys out there on a red field goal situation. It’s a long way to go, guys coming off the sideline, and I just didn’t want to get into that situation, so I was trying with everything I had to keep one timeout.

If I had to say there is one thing I want to see out of Kirby before I'm ready to say he's a step up from Mark Richt is that level of preparedness and thoughtfulness about how you approach a play that is yet to happen. 2009 Dabo wouldn't have been there. 
TW

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Marquette is a must win for Georgia hoops

If UGA is to get to the NCAA tournament, we need to have a win tomorrow. Even if Marquette turns out to be a bottom tier Big East team, beating a Big East team will get Georgia noticed. Steve Wojciechowski, former Duke standout and Associate Head Coach, is their head coach. By the way, they are projected to be a bubble NCAA team. In that regard, this game is a must win for the Golden Eagles, too.

To date, they've gone 5-2, with a close loss to Pitt and a blowout loss to Michigan in the 2K classic at Madison Square Garden. They beat Howard by 32 at home. Coming into the game they are currently at 38th in KenPom. Georgia is 60th, being held down by adjusted offensive numbers and tempo (which is an adjusted measure of successful offensive possessions).

Marquette loves to get up and down the court. They have strong guard play, with Jujuan Johnson and Haanif Cheatam averaging double digit ppg. Center Luke Fischer is also averaging double digit ppg. Fox loves defensive basketball and this game will test our ability to handle an offense that can score inside and outside. In both of Marquette's loses, they were held to fewer possessions and got fewer good looks, forcing the ball into the hands of players other than Johnson, Cheatam, and Fischer.

Speaking of, when you look over Marquette's stats, there is one guy to keep an eye on: Kaitin Reinhardt. He's a graduate transfer from Southern Cal. While he's fourth on the team in points per game at 8.8 coming off the bench, there is something else that stands out: he's third on the team in shots taken, and second in 3pt attempts. Combine that with his being 8th on the team at 3pt% at 25% (and only 27.6% total), and you can see place that Mark Fox would want to force Marquette into. If Reinhardt is jacking long range jumpers with abandon, that is good sign that Fox's game plan is working.

Tip is 2pm tomorrow on ESPNU.

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What's next?

We've all seen this before: Play calling to not lose, lack of focus at key times, not running the plays that work until the defense stops them, being too cute with personnel. Clock and play management snafus.

That's probably what I was most frustrated about.

And that was 2001.

It took a while of post game processing to get there, but I was frustrated because what we saw yesterday is replay of what we saw the last time we hired a young hotshot coordinator who is The Next Big Thing.

There isn't any real revelation there, but there is hope that this The Next Big Thing learns faster.

One other thing, before you get too far down that road, Mark Richt's 2001 team had three all conference selections on the Oline.

I've said all along, it is impossible to write the story of Kirby Smart's success until we see if he's learning to be a head coach. On the job training on national television sucks. We can debate if we are a program that should be doing that, but we made the decision that we are a program that does that. Ignore the noise about what Mark Richt was or what Georgia was or blahblahblahMuschamp.

That is until we are still doing those things above in year three.
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The delicate line between rebuilding and winning now

I don't believe any reasonable person would tell you they thought Georgia was going to make significant progress with a new head coach. We could all debate what we thought significant progress means, especially considering the winning percentage of Mark Richt, but very few would have thought losing to a bad Vanderbilt and nearly doing so against a much worse Nicholls team was on the table.

Hell, I thought we'd be 9-3.

That being said, Kirby is balancing winning now with building the program he envisions.

Those two things are in direct competition with each other, with the hearts, minds, and dollars of Georgia fans at stake. Think I'm kidding?

“I know that Kirby is going to build it - I really do believe that because I know what he’s about from over the last two decades. I know he’s going to get it. He has major drive. He has an edge,” another said. “But I’m not going back to games until he does. When he builds it I will be there. I don’t have time for that stuff right now. I’ve got kids. We are busy.”

That is from one of Legge's insiders.

It bears watching as we go through the season. Here's the thing: There isn't another game on the schedule that is a 'no way we can win' game. The flip side is that 6-6 is on the table. When you add in an increase in cost for 2017, that could spell a significant decrease in season tickets sold for next season.

While it isn't time to send Kevin Bacon into the homecoming crowd yelling 'all is well, keep calm,' those problems go higher up than the football program.

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Eason to start

Not really breaking news, but keeping in line with everything else out of camp this fall. Let's get those first start jitters out against a team we should handle easily.

Now, you want to surprise me, use Ramsey on 4th and 4 to show punt, then set him back under center to run a play.
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Lambert to start

Hopefully, I'm as wrong about the game as I am about Eason starting.

For a very level headed treatment of the decision, check out Seth Emerson's piece on it. Very much where I am.

Related: Schlabach says Eason will definitely play.
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Dear Kirby...

In light of this, can I point you in the direction of this:

(courtesy of Advanced Football Analytics)

As Bill Connelly puts it 

Points Per Trip inside 40 ("Scoring Opportunities")	% of 2013 games	Win%	Avg. Scoring margin
5.5 to 7 points	18.6%	72.8%	15.1
5 to 5.5 points	13.2%	68.4%	11.9
4.5 to 5 points	13.3%	62.6%	7.4
4 to 4.5 points	13.7%	51.8%	1.7
3.5 to 4 points	8.5%	50.4%	-3.9
3 to 3.5 points	12.5%	38.5%	-7.6
2 to 3 points	12.1%	23.1%	-14.1
1 to 2 points	5.0%	4.9%	-25.8
0 to 1 points	3.0%	0.0%	-36.0

One other thing about this table: field goals are basically failures. They are obviously useful at times in close games, but settling for field goals is a losing strategy as a whole. Even with a good kicker, averaging three points per scoring opportunity will win you about one-third of your games. (Keep this in mind the next time your team kicks an 18-yard field goal.)

I get you need to have a serviceable kicking option for many situations. I'd posit that those situations don't include 4th and less than four from inside the 35. Of course, your mileage may vary, but I'm also not going to incur the wrath of the Dawgvent if it doesn't work out that one time.
TW

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Yeah, Georgia's offense wasn't great on 3rd down

Ooffff.

Situational

	Offense		Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk
Q1 S&P+	114.5	36	124.9	15
Q2 S&P+	119.5	23	95.4	82
Q3 S&P+	130.0	9	142.1	5
Q4 S&P+	105.2	55	98.7	73
1st Down S&P+	125.7	6	116.8	20
2nd Down S&P+	125.8	11	109.1	40
3rd Down S&P+	86.8	109	112.1	35

Which is born out when you look at the raw stats for 3rd down. 31% conversion rate, good for 120th in DI.

There is no simple answer, as we were middling on 3rd and short rushing plays (16 first downs on 29 attempts) and terrible in every other scenario (under 25% conversion rate total). Ok, we were around 50% on 3rd and short passing, which is good, but why would we ever pass on third and short considering the running game last year? Considering we only gained 96 yards on 9 completions, it wasn't like we were taking downfield shots from a rushing look.

With a different OC here, it is hard to draw conclusions, but it isn't hard to be relieved we aren't faced with the knowledge that the same OC probably would mean either running from a running look or passing from a passing look on 3rd down.

Of course, results vary.

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Napoleon's Battle Plan

Before we go all 'yeah but Ramsey,' calm down. That fight has been lost. We are on game 11. There won't be another change absent an injury.

Still, reading this

Georgia’s commitment to Lambert goes beyond the playing time. Methodically, the Bulldogs have adapted their strategy to fit him. No longer are they trying to play a fast-paced, up-tempo on offense. For the last two games they’ve been huddling up and playing a more deliberate brand of ball.

and you can't be fooled into thinking anything other than we'll only see bits and pieces of anyone other than Lambert from here on out.

I could get into the reasons beyond Chubb's injury that we are in this situation, but I'd say we took at least one game too long to get here.

Is there any clearer reason we started Bauta at Florida because someone on the coaching staff thought he was the better QB to run the hurry up? That's the most plausible thing I can come up with, especially considering the way he was utilized.

At least we are doing something with a plan. 

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One thing about Florida

It doesn't matter who is playing QB (ED NOTE: I started this Thursday morn). There is opportunity for our offense to shake off the 3rd down blues. Florida looks pedestrian on standard 3rd downs. The upside, on 3rd and short, they are giving up first downs regular (11 of 16 opportunities). Where Florida is tight is teams that get cute and try to rush the ball on 3rd and longer than 4. They are only allowing 6 rushing first downs on 24 attempts.

The other side of that coin is Florida's pass defense. On 3rd and 7-10, they have allowed 7 first downs on 9 of 12 attempts. Once teams get into a must pass no matter what situation (10+ yards), that drops to 6 of 20.

I don't have good analysis on why that is, but it is something to think about.

One other thing is Florida's first down defense. On 194 first downs this season, the Gators have only given up 898 yards. That's 4.62 yards per play. The crazy thing? Passing against them on first down is the way to go. While teams are only completing 52% of first down pass plays, they are gaining over 6.5 yards per attempt (and over 12 yards per completion). Again, I don't know how all this factors into the offensive game plan, but it is clear this plays into quick slant passing game. I have no idea with Bauta what this means.

With Bauta, I have to assume we are looking at running more read option and letting him free lance some. The upside, at least to me, is it'll have to freeze those LBs dropping into space, allowing for cleaner passing lanes on the middle passes and TE looks, as well as providing more man match ups to Mitchell, Goodwin, and Davis.

As for me and my house, I welcome our new spread offense overlord.

Go Dawgs.
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Throwing the ball against South Carolina

Blutarsky hit on something I'm going to talk about in the @WSLSPodcast this week: we are seeing early 2000's Mark Richt coaching philosophy in action. Actually, it is funny we've come full circle as a fan base, with us now calling for the Dawgs to throw more.

2012, we hardly knew ye.

In reality, UGA's never gotten inside 60/40 rushing-passing in the Richt era. Now, we are on pace to set a high on the running side this season, but if you'd gone back to August and said we'd win our first two games using strong running and stout defense, I think we'd all agree that is what we should be doing.

So, that brings us to South Carolina. Poking around CFBStats.com, something about South Carolina's pass defense really stood out:

Situation	G	Att	Comp	Pct.	Yards	TD	Int	Rating	Long	1st	15+	25+
1st Down	2	25	18	72.0	216	0	0	144.58	43	7	7	3
2nd Down	2	16	11	68.8	115	0	1	116.63	20	6	3	0
3rd Down	2	17	10	58.8	74	1	2	91.27	21	4	1	0
3rd Down, 1-3 To Go	2	2	1	50.0	21	1	0	303.20	21	1	1	0
3rd Down, 4-6 To Go	1	5	2	40.0	17	0	1	28.56	10	2	0	0
3rd Down, 7-9 To Go	1	5	3	60.0	15	0	1	45.20	6	0	0	0
3rd Down, 10+ To Go	2	5	4	80.0	21	0	0	115.28	14	1	0	0
4th Down	2	2	1	50.0	19	0	1	29.80	19	1	1	0

Teams are doing quite well throwing against them on first down. Now, first down is when the whole play book is open, but when you compare their rushing defense, it becomes apparent that first down ain't their thing.

Situation	G	Att	Yards	Avg.	TD	Long	1st	10+	20+
1st Down	2	32	241	7.53	1	44	6	6	5
2nd Down	2	27	115	4.26	2	20	8	2	1
3rd Down	2	10	58	5.80	0	29	5	4	1
3rd Down, 1-3 To Go	2	5	25	5.00	0	29	2	1	1
3rd Down, 4-6 To Go	2	3	22	7.33	0	17	2	2	0
3rd Down, 7-9 To Go	1	1	13	13.00	0	13	1	1	0
3rd Down, 10+ To Go	1	1	-2	-2.00	0	-2	0	0	0
4th Down	2	2	1	0.50	0	1	1	0	0

1/3 of all their first downs given up happen on first down plays. 22% of all first down plays result in a first down. For comparison sakes, UGA has only given up 3 first downs on first down plays. Hey, if we're only going to throw it 20 times, let's make 13 of those times on first down, because it sure feels like first and ten is a good time if you are trying to soften a defense geared for run.

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