When Narrative is So Loud

A little fun with stats:

QB freshman season stats:

PASSING              GP   Effic Cmp-Att-Int   Pct  Yds  TD Lng Avg/G
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Random Fr QB         13  108.99 135-256-13   52.7 1749   7  53 134.5

So, you bench his ass, right? Start the next freshman in line. The New Guy looks better, loves the game more, is picking up the system really good, works so hard in the weight room, bleeds red and black, ect.

So what about Random So QB?

PASSING              GP-GS   Effic Cmp-Att-Int   Pct  Yds  TD Lng Avg/G
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Random Soph QB       13-13  128.92 194-348-10   55.7 2523  19  84 194.1

Of course, you had no choice but to play him, because your recruiting philosophy dictated you didn't have too many QBs on campus at one time (which, to be fair, was the predominant recruiting philosophy of the time).

You probably know these stats are for Matt Stafford. His freshman season, we lose to Kentucky, Vandy, (National Champion) Florida, and Tennessee. That Sophomore season? Georgia loses to South Carolina in a Fair Bryant special, then to Tennesse...OMG ARIAN FOSTER JUST RAN FOR SEVEN MORE YARDS. That team finished 11-2.

What say you about Mr. Eason?

PASSING              GP-GS   Effic Cmp-Att-Int   Pct  Yds  TD Lng Avg/G
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Jacob Eason          13-12  120.25  204-370-8   55.1 2430  16  77 186.9

Well, crap. Those stats look a lot more like Stafford's sophomore season, save average per attempt and per completion, but narrative dictates it is time to start Fromm. I realize it isn't an apples to apples comparison, per se, but you can make the argument that Staff had a better offensive line in year 1 than Eason did.

All this is to say, expectations are a bitch to over come. I'm not willing to say Fromm doesn't play, or for that matter doesn't take the job from Eason. However, anyone saying Fromm should be given the job because Eason isn't what he was billed to be doesn't have my attention.

TW

Also see:
 - So, About Bellamy and Carter (obviously, I'm on a thing about Georgia fan expectation)

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Yeah, Georgia's offense wasn't great on 3rd down

Ooffff.

Situational

	Offense		Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk
Q1 S&P+	114.5	36	124.9	15
Q2 S&P+	119.5	23	95.4	82
Q3 S&P+	130.0	9	142.1	5
Q4 S&P+	105.2	55	98.7	73
1st Down S&P+	125.7	6	116.8	20
2nd Down S&P+	125.8	11	109.1	40
3rd Down S&P+	86.8	109	112.1	35

Which is born out when you look at the raw stats for 3rd down. 31% conversion rate, good for 120th in DI.

There is no simple answer, as we were middling on 3rd and short rushing plays (16 first downs on 29 attempts) and terrible in every other scenario (under 25% conversion rate total). Ok, we were around 50% on 3rd and short passing, which is good, but why would we ever pass on third and short considering the running game last year? Considering we only gained 96 yards on 9 completions, it wasn't like we were taking downfield shots from a rushing look.

With a different OC here, it is hard to draw conclusions, but it isn't hard to be relieved we aren't faced with the knowledge that the same OC probably would mean either running from a running look or passing from a passing look on 3rd down.

Of course, results vary.

T

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Georgia's 1980 Season

1980 Georgia may not have been the most unlikely champion ever, but it’s close.https://t.co/LrFKKVroXO

— SB✯Nation CFB (@SBNationCFB) June 8, 2016

Very good read. If you have any doubt about how magical the 1980 season was, take a look. Connelly's normal statistical genius shows just how much that is so. The best is something I've said for years:

But wow, what a season this was, and it was almost made more awesome and amazing by how flawed the team itself was. This was the third-best Georgia team of the Herschel Walker era, but it was the one that secured Vince Dooley a title.

I still say BYU's championship season was worse, mainly because of their bowl opponent, but Georgia's 1980 season was one of magic and a good team getting all the breaks (insert your own Auburn jokes here). He's including the 1980 team in his upcoming book The 50 Best* College Football Teams of All-Time. If you are so inclined, you can click the link to support that effort.

T

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Georgia's third down offense

YEAH BOY. FIREFIREFIREFIRE

Now Bill Connelly puts some numbers to that....

Situational

	Offense		Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk
Q1 S&P+	115.4	31	124.9	15
Q2 S&P+	119.8	21	95.7	82
Q3 S&P+	130.0	9	142.0	5
Q4 S&P+	106.1	53	98.2	77
1st Down S&P+	126.6	6	117.0	20
2nd Down S&P+	127.4	9	109.2	40
3rd Down S&P+	86.3	111	111.3	37

Yes. Georgia's offense was top ten in the nation on 1st down and 2nd down. We only converted 49 third downs on the season. And it wasn't just passing offense that was the problem y'all. We converted 21 of 63 rushing attempts. Before you go all shotgun quick draw on me, that 63 includes just 18 attempts on 3rd and 7+ (which includes a few sacks/busted qb running for his life plays). We weren't great shakes with passing conversion, obviously.

For a power running team, we sure did a poor job of 

1. Blocking effectively on 3rd and short/medium, 
2. Scheming/calling plays that gave our running back the opportunity to have a shot at getting first down yardage, or
3. Leveraging the run possibility to get one on on match ups that made our QB comfortable enough to not have to think about it.

Place that blame where you want, but I'm ok with saying it is a bad combination of all that.

TW

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Fan poll

But you promised me everyone wanted him gone......

OK, straight up poll question, Georgia fans: Do you want Mark Richt return in 2016 or not?

— Seth Emerson (@SethEmersonAJC) November 28, 2015

There are plenty of us that aren't happy with how this season played out, but also see the value in what Mark Richt brings to the table. I just think the loudest are those that want him gone.
TW

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Teeing it up for Georgia Southern

You want a quick game? Georgia's new offensive philosophy depends on running as much time as possible off the clock. Georgia Southern is second in the nation in time of possession, and the Eagles haven't played a game over 3:29 all season.

So you should expect your grandfather's football game on Saturday. We'll throw some, but if the Eagles want to win, they'll have to guard against obvious mismatches on the long ball with Mitchell and McKenzie. That should soften their front to allow us to run.

Southern's run offense is tops in the nation. For comparison's sake, below are GSU's rushing offense and defensive performances to date, with their opponent's respective ranks.

2015 Georgia Southern Eagles Rushing Defense Game Log through 11/14/2015

• 2015
 
• 2014

Date	Opponent	Surface	Result	Att	Yards	Avg.	Opp Rush Off rank
09/05/15	@ West Virginia	Turf	L 0-44	40	185	4.63	18
09/12/15	Western Mich.	Grass	W 43-17	26	25	0.96	30
09/19/15	Citadel	Grass	W 48-13	54	313	5.80	2 in FCS
09/26/15	@ Idaho	Turf	W 44-20	34	111	3.26	97
10/03/15	@ La.-Monroe	Turf	W 51-31	26	47	1.81	123
10/17/15	New Mexico St.	Grass	W 56-26	29	133	4.59	45
10/22/15	@ Appalachian St.	Turf	L 13-31	48	231	4.81	6
10/29/15	Texas St.	Grass	W 37-13	31	126	4.06	42
11/14/15	@ Troy	Turf	W 45-10	18	68	3.78	117
	Totals			306	1239	4.05
@ : Away, + : Neutral Site

2015 Georgia Southern Eagles Rushing Offense Game Log through 11/14/2015

• 2015
 
• 2014

Date	Opponent	Surface	Result	Att	Yards	Avg.	Opp Rush Def Rank
09/05/15	@ West Virginia	Turf	L 0-44	57	195	3.42	92
09/12/15	Western Mich.	Grass	W 43-17	52	413	7.94	78
09/19/15	Citadel	Grass	W 48-13	49	383	7.82	62 in FCS
09/26/15	@ Idaho	Turf	W 44-20	52	441	8.48	127
10/03/15	@ La.-Monroe	Turf	W 51-31	67	455	6.79	117
10/17/15	New Mexico St.	Grass	W 56-26	59	507	8.59	124
10/22/15	@ Appalachian St.	Turf	L 13-31	38	188	4.95	30
10/29/15	Texas St.	Grass	W 37-13	67	503	7.51	125
11/14/15	@ Troy	Turf	W 45-10	66	325	4.92	109
	Totals			507	3410	6.73

For comparison's sake, UGA has played the 117th, 105th, 21st, 54th in FCS, 2nd, 51st, 14th, 10th, 95th, and 91st ranked rushing defenses. And Georgia, though very low in FBS in passing offense, has 120 ypg more passing than Southern, who is dead last, with a bullet.

Georgia has clearly faced tougher rushing defenses.

All of this is to say, this makes me feel better about Georgia Southern's giving up 7+ yards per attempt and bad about their having 14 interceptions on the season.

Just stuff to worry about headed into Saturday.
TW

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First look at Georgia-Florida

Hey, we are going to play, so I'm going to go...

Anyway, I think the game comes down to how well we contain the run game. Like last year. Florida's been scoring points the same way we have: defense and special teams.

It isn't a stretch to say the team that has that one or two big special teams play wins. Which isn't good for the Dawgs.

Still, this game is a fairly close statistical match up. SEC efficiency ranks:
Rank           Pyth    AdjO (rank) AdjD (rank) OppO (rank) OppD(rank) SOS (rank)
(7) Florida   .7938 24.9  (9)     14.1 (6) 23.0   (9)     19.7   (9)   .5911 (7)
(8) Georgia  .7718 26.1  (6)     15.6 (9) 18.5  (14)     16.1   (1)   .5818 (9)

Both teams are average in the conference. Florida has faced a slightly below average offense and slightly below average defense over the season. 

Florida did the same thing with Tennessee as Georgia, but had Butch Jones give the game away. Statistically, the Gators looked similar. Same for Missouri, but the Gators scored on an interception return and didn't give Missouri a 2 foot field to drive. And they finished drives, something we failed to do didn't do since we crawled into a shell and rocked back and forth inside the 20.

All of this is to say the SEC East is exactly as bad as everyone said. And until we lose to Florida, which I don't believe is a forgone conclusion, we are still in this thing.

T

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Repeat after me: Spread doesn't equal substantially better

I think a lot of Michael Bird's work. He's a great Twitter follow and as rational as one can be as a Michigan Man. However his piece on the Mark Richt total-debacle game is questionable.

His evidence, using the spread:

Game	Spread	Georgia's losing margin	Delta
2015 Alabama	-2	28	30
2014 Georgia Tech	-10.5	6	16.5
2014 Florida	-10.5	18	28.5
2013 Missouri	-7	15	22
2012 South Carolina	+1.5	28	26.5
2009 Tennessee	+1.5	26	24.5
2008 Alabama	-6.5	11	17.5
2007 Tennessee	-1.5	21	22.5
2006 Vanderbilt	-14.5	2	16.5
2004 Tennessee	-12.5	5	17.5
2003 LSU (SEC Championship)	+3	21	18

Any list that doesn't include the 2014 South Carolina game on it, presumably because the betting line and 'Delta' didn't work out, can't be seriously considered as valid. As I'll show below, that was one of the most face plantingly of face plant games in the past 12 seasons. 

To me, any game in which Georgia was significantly statistically favored over a team is the right way to discuss Mark Richt's ability to handle 'where are we' games. Using the spread only serves to illustrate where bettors had misplaced money, so I looked at S&P ranks for those same games (all rankings are end of season numbers except for 2015). For 2003 and 2004, I showed final human rankings, as Football Outsider's S&P rankings only go back to 2005.

Game	S&P	Georgia's S&P	Delta
2015 Alabama	1	26	-25
2014 Georgia Tech	10	7	+3
2014 Florida	29	7	+22
2013 Missouri	6	11	-5
2012 South Carolina	10	7	-3
2009 Tennessee	14	31	-17
2008 Alabama	7	21	-14
2007 Tennessee	9	13	-4
2006 Vanderbilt	71	34	+37
2004 Tennessee	16-Coaches; 13-AP	6-coaches; 7-AP
2003 LSU (SEC Championship)	1 (won BCS champ)	6 -coaches; 7-AP

Since I brought up the 2014 South Carolina game, that differential was +36 (USC 43; UGA 7). By that measure, there are three games in this time frame UGA had zero business losing: 2014 South Carolina, 2014 Florida, and 2006 Vandy. The 2004 Tennessee game was closely matched (both teams finished with 10 wins). All the other losses were toss ups or statistically, UGA should have lost.

Frankly, the 'Richt is going to screw up one game a year' thing is lazy and a nice little trope that we should soundly reject. However, we as bloggers, sports writers, and fans must have narrative, so here we are. Even this week, we are only +4 over Tennessee in the S&P rankings. Maybe don't bet on UGA in 'big' games, but don't use bettors putting money in the wrong place as proof of Mark Richt's ineptitude at big game coaching.

Like the Tim Tebow 'all He does is win (except when he doesn't)' narrative, Mark Richt can't win big games (except when he does): blanking 2014 Missouri (S&P ranked 23) on the road, soundly beating 2014 Arkansas (S&P ranked 6) on the road, beating 2014 Auburn (S&P ranked 4), beating 2014 Louisville (S&P ranked 24) in the bowl, beating 2013 South Carolina (S&P ranked 10) and LSU (S&P 13), or 2012 Florida (S&P ranked 3). 

That's seven examples in the last two seasons. Only 2013 LSU and 2012 Florida were one score or closer. The average margin of victory for all the games on the list is 17 points. 

Unless, of course, you are saying that the only big games are when Georgia loses, but bettors think we should have won, then let's close the program, because we'll never win a big game again.

TW

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