About two weeks ago the Lincoln Star Journal ran a pretty insightful article about the scheduling challenges that Athletic Directors are facing with the 12 game schedule.(Image: great scheduling)
In booking a 12 game schedule a Big 10, Big 12, SEC or ACC athletic director starts with eight league games. The Pac-10 schools play nine league games and the Big East plays seven. Florida, Georgia, Texas and Oklahoma have greater complexity due to neutral site games, but let's leave that alone for now.
The first scheduling decision an AD makes...
Do I want 6, 7 or 8 home games?
Do I want 6, 7 or 8 home games?
If the AD is willing to work with seven home games in Year 1 and eight in Year 2, he can still fit a home/away series into his schedule. If he wants an 8 game home schedule most years (we're looking at you Auburn), he'll need to find four teams willing to sell their souls for a non-return visit.
Booking the first slot is relatively easy. Most schools are calling a Div I-AA team and booking them for a reasonable appearance fee. See UGA vs. GSU, GT vs. Samford, Michigan vs. Appy State, etc.
If you're willing to do a home/away series with another power conference school, the second slot seems easy to fill. For instance, Georgia quickly booked Colorado, Arizona State, Louisville, Clemson and Oregon almost immediately once the 12 game schedule became permanent.
Southern Miss has home games????
The problem is booking those final two slots. In the good old days, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Sun Belt and WAC teams would take $250,000-$400,000 and visit your school without a return trip. According to the Lincoln Star article above (and others I've recently seen), those schools' demands are escalating at an aggressive clip. Now, those same schools are demanding $750,000-$900,000 and they are starting to demand 2 for 1s and even 1 for 1 deals.
Check out these upcoming match-ups:
- Texas 2 for 1 with Central Florida
- Miami (FLA) 2 for 1 with Marshall
- Tennessee 2 for 1 with Marshall
- Clemson 2 for 1 with Louisiana Tech
- Georgia Tech 2 for 1 with MTSU (seriously)
- Maryland 2 for 1 with MTSU
- Wisconsin 2 for 1 with Fresno State
- Virginia Tech 5 for 4 with ECU
- NC State 1 for 1 with UCF
- Arizona 2 for 1 with Toledo
- Nebraska 2 for 1 with Southern Miss (completed already)
- Kansas State 2 for 1 with North Texas
- Michigan State 2 for 1 with Florida Atlantic
- Oklahoma State 2 for 1 with Florida Atlantic
- Minnesota 2 for 1 with Florida Atlantic
- Boise State 1 for 2 with Oregon State and Oregon
You have 65 BCS teams (not including Notre Dame) scrambling to fill 2 to 4 non-conference home game slots per season. There are only 53 non-BCS, non-Notre Dame schools in Div I-A. Even if half of the BCS schools turn to a Div I-AA opponent, there still still a massive shortage of "beat down games" that you can book.
Thus, the supply and demand problems. That's why Oregon State and Cincy can afford to walk away from 2 for 1 deals with Georgia. And it's why so many teams are waiting til the last minute to book the final slot on their 2008 schedules. The low level non-BCS teams are pulling 2 for 1s on occassion and the upper non-BCS teams like BYU and Colorado State are pulling 1 for 1s routinely. A BCS school like Oregon State or Cincy (although they are marginal BCS) would be nuts in this day and age to give out 2 for 1s when a 1 for 1 is very doable.
Regardless, it's a trend to keep an eye on.
BTW -- Georgia hasn't had an eight game home schedule that I can ever remember, and we've only played seven home games three times since 1990.
See Also:
-- Big 10 Coaches say 8 is enough - BoilerStation
-- Wisconsin's Schedule Proposal Shot Down - Bucky's Tour
-- Notre Dame's Schedule Structure - BlueGraySky
-- Future National Schedules - NationalChamps.net
-- Future UGA Schedules - SicemDawgs.com
PWD
