I'm not here to call for anyone's head or bang on the desk and ask for changes. But I do hear the question being asked...just like you do...will Felton be here next year?
Before answering that question, it's important to understand the bigger picture surrounding Felton's contract. Prior to this season, Felton was given a contract extension through the 2010-2011 season. He was given the extension because it's almost impossible for basketball coaches to recruit with only two or three years left on their deal. They need around four years on their contract so that recruits can buy into the idea that their coach will be there for their entire tenure.
This season (2007-2008) was the first year of that four year deal. There are only three seasons left after March of this year. If Felton gets another year (2008-2009), then one of two things must happen at the end of next season:
- 1. He must be fired for lack of progress.
or
2. He must get another 3-4 year contract extension and pay raise.
The questions for Damon Evans and Michael Adams seem to boil down to these:
- 1. What does success look like in 2008-2009?
What would he have to do next season to convince them that he's a long term solution worth a contract extension? Does he need to make the Sweet 16? The NCAA Tourney? The NIT? Does he need to sign Favors? What would be "enough" to keep him and invest more heavily in him?
2. Is success obtainable?
Given that we're losing arguably one of the top 3 point guards in UGA history, and the team's best player, scorer, rebounder, assist man and stealer in Sundiata Gaines....given that there's no proven shooter on the team next year to stand beside Billy Humphrey and nail shots on the frequent occasions when Billy is off....given that the front court will still be very young...given that Felton's squads have only won 5 SEC road games in 5 years...how much better can the 2008-2009 season really be?
I don't know what's going to happen, but I do know that Michael Adams fired Ron Jirsa and Jim Donnan for a helluva lot less than these types of results.
Hopefully, Felton strings together several big wins and quiets the grumbling. Otherwise, the toughest personnel decision of Damon Evans' tenure is on a very short horizon.
PWD
12 comments:
Paul,
What's to keep the administration from extending Felton's contract by 1 season (regardless of whether or not he is retained after next year)? That would seem to address the issue.
why not just get the job done and start a successful Program with a new, intense coach? I think the UGA Alum and Fans deserve a good b-ball program.
As I've stated many time on this wonderful site, I'm 50/50 with CDF. I truly believe he is a good coach and if he left UGA, he'd find a job quickly and that team would be the beneficiary of our loss.
That said, at some point, even good coaches need to try their "shtick" out on someone else. Our B-Ball team is not only losing, they are not relevant in any measurable way (except for losing scholly players).
If I'm forced to answer, then yes, CDF stays one more year and we must be well over the Mendoza line (.500) for him to continue. This extra year would be a reward for some of the initial garbage he had to deal with when he came to us.
This is a question I dont envy Evans and Adams. No one could replace Gaines, but I think Butler and Swansey will be able to distribute the ball well enough and hopefully we wont have to be guard-dependent as much as we are this year.
As always, it comes down to the last five games. These last two weeks Georgia has played much better, even if the W's haven't come. We played Tennessee like a team possessed and had a game in Rupp in doubt in the last two minutes. And we really demolished Arkansas.
I think Felton has to win either LSU or Auburn, if only to show a glimmer of hope that he might, one day, possibly be able to win a game on the road against a roughly equivalent team.
On the other hand, who could Georgia really get? Our refusal to try to even compete with Kentucky over Tubby continues to haunt us, and as nice as the new facilities are, they are not better than having to deal with Tennessee, Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Mississippi State and 100 years of mostly futility.
I agree with many of the comments here. Another thing worth pointing out is that Felton has arguably the most complete player the dawgs have signed in his tenure coming in next fall in Tomkins. Add to that an exciting point guard in Ware that could help fill the hole left by Gaines' departure, it would not be prudent to cut ties now. Also remember, to make a splash in the coaching hires these days, you need to spend a minimum of $1.5 million. When you add to the fact that Felton's buyout will be in the $3 million range, the athletic department can't absorb that kind of cost.
B,
Our athletic department right now can absurd virtually any personnel costs. We're posting profits in the $20 million range.
If we want someone, we have the cash to pursue them aggressively.
Separately - Felton's buyout will be at most $2.280 million.
That's $760,000 * 3 years remaining on his deal. That's the MOST we could owe him.
If past history is any indication for how Adams will act, and I believe it is his decision, then I believe Felton will be gone by the end of the year.
First, one of the main public reasons for sacking Donnan was Adams belief that allowing Donnan to coach one more year would not change the record much. Dooley and Donnan could not guarantee that the record would be better one year later (it wasn't) or that the team was heading in the right direction.
Second, Donnan's statement at the beginning of the year about the talent level of his team who then lost all of their games to their fiercest rivals did not help.
Felton made a similar statement this year. I am paraphrasing, but did he not say something to the effect of this team had more talent than any of previous editions - despite the personnel losses from suspensions/dismissals?
As so many have pointed out here, there is no guarantee that Felton's team will be that much better in 2008-09.
If there was a year to make a move in the SEC, this was it. Other than UT, and possibly Vandy, everyone else is mediocre or worse. But we are awful. We cannot score and just decent defensively.
Our school is an afterthought for the top players in state when it comes to recruiting. Think about the talent level that has emerged from this state in the last 10 years. How many of them even mentioned UGA as a possibility before selecting a school or heading to the NBA? I can think of one and only one ...
I do not know who we should hire, but I think Felton and UGA should agree to part ways.
I agree with CPaul that DF is a good coach, but sometimes the match just isn't right in personnel matters in any field. It doesn't mean either party is wrong or bad or deficient. The match just soemtimes isn't there. Simple as that. I am firmly of the mind that Dennis Felton and UGA Hoops just aren't right for each other, but would very much like to see both be successful apart from one another.
That said...if he is retained, the silver lining(s) on which I will choose to focus are: Kevin Stallings, and the youth coming in.
Stallings was the flavor of the month when he took over a Vandy program that wasn't exactly at their high-water mark, but neither were they in the straits we were in when Felton took over. He hemmed and hawed and ran in place for 5 or so years, nearly got himself fired, and then pulled a Lazarus and resurrected his tenure at Vandy from the dead. Are they world beaters today? No. Would I trade places with them, program-wise? You bet your sweet ass I would and you would, too.
As far as expectations for next year, while we are losing some serious leadership, especially in the backcourt, it's not a stretch for Ware to come in and provide an exciting complement to Swansey, who is logging some serious quality minutes these days, and if Thompkins is all he's advertised to be, our frontcourt could be underrated at worst next year, and improved at best. Again, it's not a great leap of faith...
But my dream scenario is another program in need of a hard-ass, squeaky clean disciplinarian (IU, anyone?) is willing to overlook the negatives of his tenure here and comes after him in the off-season and saves us all the trouble of a messy divorce.
Hey- a guy can dream, can't he?
Let's just hire Tubby back from Minnesota. It's gotta suck there.
UGA hoops has sunk into obscurity. Irrespective of whether Felton is an honorable person, his tenure at UGA has been lackluster at best.
Getting a new coach coach can, in many cases, make things worse (read Notre Dame football). However, that is not the case here. Our basketball program is so bad it only has one direction to move.
Half a decade has been plenty of time to determine whether Felton is a good fit. Both the team's record and off court antics clearly signal it is time for a change.
Our program is going nowhere right now. We need a new coach.
Felton needs to go. What is this, his 5th year, and NO PROGRESS WHATSOEVER! Georgia basketball should be more competitive, and although the program doesn't have a good history, we should have been A LOT FARTHER ALONG than we have. Hell, the Gators had no history until the 1990's. Of course, look what they have done. FIRE FELTON!
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