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June 30, 2008

SMQ's Georgia Tech Preview


Sunday Morning Quarterback takes a look at Georgia Tech's opportunity in 2008. The article does a good job of facilitating a discussion related to what sort of expectations the Georgia Tech fans (sic) should have for the program.

(Image: Hipple)

Much of their optimism seems to built on the idea Johnson has won everywhere he's been. And that Navy had great success in Div I with his triple option. However, SMQ correctly points out that Johnson was completely lacking in success against quality BCS teams.
Number of Midshipmen victories since 2002 over teams that finished with a winning record: five, against Air Force (2003, 2007), New Mexico (2004), East Carolina (2006) and Colorado State (2005), if you’re willing count the 6-6 Rams. In six years under Johnson, the Middies’ best performance was probably against Boston College in the ‘06 Car Care Bowl, which they lost only because a late pitch in the rain squirted free and set up the winning field goal for BC. None of Navy’s actual BCS conference victims came anywhere near a winning record. (emphasis added)
Where will Tech finish this year? I think a seven win season would be a tremendous accomplishment given the mass defections, recruiting woes and normal learning curve for a triple option team.

    2008 Schedule

    Aug. 28 (Thur.) JACKSONVILLE STATE

    Sept. 6 at Boston College

    Sept. 13 at Virginia Tech

    Sept. 20 MISSISSIPPI STATE

    Sept. 27 Open

    Oct. 4 DUKE (Family Weekend)

    Oct. 11 GARDNER-WEBB

    Oct. 18 at Clemson

    Oct. 25 VIRGINIA (Homecoming)

    Nov. 1 FLORIDA STATE

    Nov. 8 at North Carolina

    Nov. 15 Open

    Nov. 20 (Thur.) MIAMI

    Nov. 29 at Georgia

I see two three sure fire wins on the schedule (JSU, GW and Duke). The rest of the games look like toss up or much worse.

However, the must win games on the schedule that will decide whether or not his team is going bowling are:
  • at Boston College - Tech badly needs to win this game. A loss here and 1-2 or 1-3 start becomes very likely. It will be extremely difficult for Tech to go bowling without a win against BC.

  • vs. Mississippi State - Jokes about whiting out Croom aside, this is a big one. Win this and they have a chance to be 4-2 or better heading into their road game against Clemson. Sweeping BC and MSU would give the Jackets a tremendous shot at extending their meaningless bowl streak. Although a trip to the Congressional Bowl vs. Navy (where they would ideally lose) could make for great comedy). Lose to both MSU and BC, and the Duke and G-Webb games will be some of the most depressing BCS home games in America.

  • at UNC -- A loss could mean that Butch Davis is rebuilding a much more broken down program at a faster clip than Johnson who inherited a relatively stable situation only one year removed from the ACC title game.
On the other hand, the program defining games for Johnson look to be:
  • FSU or Miami - Both of these programs are in transition. If Josh Nesbitt (Tech's fumble prone but race car fast QB) has figured out the triple option, either of these games are winnable. Tech currently is riding a shocking three game winning streak against the Canes. A win vs. either team would give Tech fans reason to hope for better things in '09.
I didn't list the Georgia game as a potential program defining game. They are already defined by losing to us every year. What would another "L" really change? And beating Clemson hasn't changed much of anything for Tech historically. So I left that off the list as well. Although, it would certainly be a big win if it were to happen.

So what are your thoughts? What do you expect from the NATS?

PWD

23 comments:

mdr1013 said...

I expect them to fail.

Ideally, they would go 3-9. But they will manage to cheat their way to a couple more victories than that.

They could beat BC and Virginia, maybe even one of the Florida schools. I can't see anything better than 6 wins though no matter what.

Hopefully we can roll up another 51-7 type beatdown to end the regular season on a happy note.

Anonymous said...

none of their games other than garner-webb is an almost guaranteed win

if we can hardly beat cutclife,then tech shouldnt be able to either

51-7 part II this year!

Anonymous said...

I might be overhyping them, but look out for UNC. Butch Davis has had a couple recruiting classes and they were very young last year. I believe he returns 18 of the 22 starters from last year's 4-8 squad. They aren't anything that is remotely "SEC" type of material, but due to the items listed in the article, I am not sure if Tacky can win this game on the road. Of course it's all academic until 8/30, but it is fun to talk about.

blackertai said...

Truthfully, I'd like them to be undefeated when we play them. On this year of all years, I find it likely that we'll need some sort of boast in the last few weeks to get us back to the top of the rankings (since I see at least 1 loss on our schedule), and a good Tech does a better job of helping us than a crappy tech. A win over Michigan this year won't push tOSU into the title game, but it helped tremendously a couple of years ago when they were good ('06). Similarly, if we're going into that game at 9-2 or 10-1, I'd rather play a good (7-5, 8-4) Tech that helps us show pollsters why we're deserving than a crappy Tech who people expect us to roll over (although I want to do that anyways).

Anonymous said...

Good news for GT is that nearly everybody in the ACC sucks at offense, so maybe their defense can keep things close or maybe win the game for them. The bad news is the ACC is full of very good defensive teams...So they might get shut-out few times this year.

Anonymous said...

blackertai ..

To Hell With TECH!!! You should never wish for GT to win at anything. Its a Cardinal sin for a UGA fan.

BTW, We play enough tough teams every year. Take GT off our Sch, and its still tougher then 90% of BCS teams.

Scott said...

Oh how I wish UGA could have that schedule this year ;)

Hobnail_Boot said...

They will be begging for 51-7 by halftime.

No depth + new scheme + Rival who owns your pathetic existence = Biblical beatdown.

Anonymous said...

Duke was pretty lousy when the Blue Devils rolled over Tech in 2003. Just saying.

Anonymous said...

3-9

Anonymous said...

Navy played two ACC teams last year, beating Duke 46-43(yippee!) and losing by 20 to Wake Forest. The highlights of their year were beating 3 horrible teams - the two other service academies and Notre Dame.

S.A.W.B. said...

3-9 or 4-8, with the swing game there being the JSU game to open things up. Remember, the Gamecocks of JSU have former LSU quarterback and probable felon Ryan Perriloux as their new starting Quarterback. He could make a world of difference in a game against a Yech team breaking in a new offense and defense.

mdr1013 said...

I would just like to add that I will NEVER stop laughing if they lose to Jax St. Never.

Anonymous said...

I think Cut will do more with Duke than J will with Tech, at least in the first year.

mant said...

They just lost another one.

http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/metro/atlanta/stories/2008/06/30/georgia_tech_tarrant_rape.html?cxntlid=homepage_tab_newstab

Wow, just Wow. Do you think the Nerds will be in as big an uproar as they were for the UGA VI coverage on the AJC ? Probably not. Yechsters making excuses in 5,4,3...

mant said...

It cut off my link. It's on the AJC's front page.

The jist,

Georgia Tech football player Jerrard Tarrant has been charged with a rape that allegedly occurred in late April on the Tech campus.

mdr1013 said...

Wait, there are girls on the Tech campus?

S.A.W.B. said...

mdr1013 - the article mentions nothing, NOTHING, about a woman...

/about to cross the line in about 19 different ways with this one...

Hobnail_Boot said...

In related news, Tech is going to return the most starters in the nation next year.

..they all started in HS last year.

stick jackson said...

Actually, not all of them started in high school, but they were all at least key reserves on some pretty darn competitive teams.

mdr1013 said...

S.A.W.B. -

Bravo. Bravo.

You can't see it, but I stood in front of the computer and applauded you for that one.

Crane said...

Dang it we're not going to have a sould to block the first game of the season

http://www.ajc.com/sports/content/metro/stories/2008/07/01/uga_georgia_players_arrested.html

Anonymous said...

Well said hobnail_boot.

 
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