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August 1, 2008

Virtually no way for UGA to go Wire to Wire #1


Even if the Bulldogs were to go undefeated, there's almost no way we can go wire to wire #1 in the USAToday/Coaches Poll. Georgia only has an 8 vote lead over #2 Southern Cal, and we only have a 46 vote lead over #3 ranked Ohio State.

UGA has 22 first place votes in the poll, which means that only 36 percent of voters have the Bulldogs in the top overall slot.

Both USC and Ohio State each have 14 first place votes, and they play each other in Week 3. The winner of that game will almost definitely take the 14 first place votes from the other team. Those votes combined with a further consolidation of the teams behind Georgia will knock UGA down to #2 -- at best -- entering our Week 4 match-up with Arizona State.

(Image: Prince Miller. Photo by Jim Hipple)

The Good News -- The coaching staff will certainly get to play the disrespect card going into the ASU game. Being #2 is an excellent place for the Bulldogs as it gives the team something to strive for and something to be angry about. Especially after we've tasted #1.

The Bad News -- Barring an upset of the USC or OSU winner following Week 3, Georgia may not have a realistic shot to take back the #1 position unless/until we beat the Gators or win the National Title Game in Miami.

Here's a pretty good estimate for how UGA looked on the different ballots. Obviously, it's not exactly, but it may help to visually understand how the individual votes would've fallen to get us to 1,438 total points (math by me):


Points Votes
#1 Votes
550 22
#2 Votes 312 13
#3 Votes 230 10
#4 Votes 220 10
#5 Votes 126 6
Total 1438 61

Thoughts?

PWD

13 comments:

RedCrake said...

Unless of course USC and OhSt is an abysmal games riddled with fumbles and interceptions.

Or the winner of that game could suffer major injuries early in the season.

Also, if Ohio State were to beat USC (likely on a fluke), I don't see any reason why a coach couldn't determine that Georgia was now the best team in the land. It would only take a handful.

Anonymous said...

Can we focus on the fact that we are even in a position to HAVE this discussion? Still hasn't set in just yet.

Paul Westerdawg said...

For the record -- I'm NOT complaining. I WANT to be ranked #1.

I've been a UGA fan for 18 years, and I've seen us ranked in almost every position imaginable between the 2 different polls except pre-season #1....and we haven't won a national title.

Let's try it the other way this time. lol.

PWD

Anonymous said...

Bring on all the senarios you want, the only senario I care about is the Dawgs taking care of business on Saturdays. Let's sit back and enjoy the ride that looks to be one helluva season.

Go Dawgs!

Anonymous said...

1 or 2....

Just get to Miami.

Andy said...

First of all (no pun intended), there is no reason on Earth why we can't go undefeated, what with the talent and coaching we've got. Granted, it's tough, blah blah blah, but if we get the breaks, those miracle, lucky Duval Street breaks, we can. Of course, that's probably not going to happen; but, it happened before, and I was two years old, sitting on my Daddy's knee watching every minute of incomplete pass as we knocked of Notre Dame. I'm 30 now and droll the same sh*t, different day, day in, day out. We can dream, can't we?

That said, all I really care about at this point are the Saturdays that are right around the hot-ass corner. . .

Groo said...

Who was the last #1 to be dropped without losing? It's true that teams do get jumped, but without much evidence I think voters treat #1 a little differently, kind of a king-of-the-mountain position. It's entirely possible that some of those #1 votes could come our way (or even to someone like Florida after playing Miami).

upstatescdawg said...

Well even if the polls are bs it's nice to see the Dawgs ranked number 1. No matter what happens this year, it's the first time I've ever seen us as number 1, so that's enough for me in August.

Anonymous said...

This is absurd. All we can do is play the hand were dealt.

PWD, I'm 36 and attended my first GA game in Auburn '78. What took you so long?

Paul Westerdawg said...

Anon 7:42,

I'm not from the state of Georgia originally.

But I earned my UGA fanhood by buying into the program in '89 and graduating in '94. Ouch.

Xon said...

Yeah, in the end, this sounds reasonable on paper, but in reality it probably won't work that way. Dropping the #1 team without them losing, a #1 team who everyone acknowledges plays the hardest schedule in the nation, would be a tough vote for a lot of folks, I think. The USC-OSU winner doesn't get all of the 1st place votes of the loser. Also, UGA may garner more 1st place votes before the USC-OSU matchup. If UGA plays well, hammers people like they should in the first few weeks, then they might get credit for that, too. You never know, is the point (I guess).

skidawg1985 said...

I would not mind going into the BCS game #2 since I think #2 has won more often.

I could see either (t)OSU or USC leap frogging UGA with a good win (not a sloppy one). I also think that Ohio State take USC unless they start to think USC stands for U of South Carolina and think it is an SEC school. (I just cannot resist!).

Paul Westerdawg said...

Xon,

That's not how the polls work. A poll is a collection if individual votes. For UGA to drop when only 36% of the voters have us as #1 would be pretty easy.

That would simply require the 36% of the people who believe in us to KEEP believing in us.

But the other 67% to tweak their vote only marginally.

It wouldn't be the poll that dropped us. We technically would see our overall vote total RISE a little.

It's just that someone else's vote total would rise a little more.

PWD

 
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