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August 10, 2009

Oklahoma State a 6 point favorite over UGA


If we get this from our DEs, we win (Image: Hipple)

I don't endorse any betting site, and I usually don't bet on sports. Hell, I'd be an addict if I gambled online so I don't bother with it; however, I do catch a few lines of interest. A couple jumped off the page to me in Week 1 starting with Georgia's trip to Stillwater.

DannySheridan.com has the Dawgs at a 6 point road underdog with an over/under of 62.5 points from one of his sports book partner sites. As I understand it, that means the bookies are thinking that Georgia will lose this game roughly 34 to 28. If I'm wrong about that, let me know.

I'll grant you that the Dawgs have some defensive question marks, but 34 points? Get serious. Here's how the Cowboys faired against ranked opposition last year:
Missouri -- 28
Texas -- 24
Texas Tech -- 20
Oklahoma -- 41
Oregon -- 31

Only Texas had a defense that allowed fewer points than Georgia's unit last year. OU surrendered a ton of points, but they also scored 61. To say that Ok State had plenty of possessions against the Sooners would be an under statement.

By my back of the napkin math, Mark Richt is 7-1 at Georgia as a road underdog. If that's not right, it's really close. Not saying to mortgage your house. Just saying.

Other interesting lines include BYU as a 22 to 25 underdog to Oklahoma in Dallas. Andre Ware has already picked BYU in this one to wit Brent Musburger laughed and told him, "You can call me collect after that one." Nice.

In the SEC, Bama is a 6 point favorite to Virginia Tech. Call me crazy, but I like Virginia Tech straight up in that one. The points look like a gift.

Back to the Ok State game, I think the Dawgs win if we keep the Pokes under 24. I said a few weeks ago that I think the game comes down to our defensive ends ability to manufacture a pass rush. This is a feeling that's not lost on Georgia's DEs. Tim Tucker talked with the Demarcus Dobbs and Rob Battle about that situation in tonight's AJC.

See Also:
-- Marcus Washington getting work at DE - ABH
-- Tickets: Georgia Bulldogs at Oklahoma State

PWD

* All info provided for entertainment purposes only.

20 comments:

Dan said...

I can come up with two underdog road losses off the top of my head:

Auburn 04
LSU 03

I do think the LSU could have been a toss up though.

PTC DAWG said...

Take UGA and 6 and bet the under.

I think Bama wins, but it might be closer than 6.

PERSON said...

Paul - a 6pt spread does not mean that books think UGA will lose by six. Spreads are designed to attract equal action on both sides (except in rare cases where books "take a stand," but this is clearly not one of those cases).

Because of the -110 juice on both sides (you must be $11 to win $10), the books make money when the action on either side is even.

Further, public perception has a lot to do with the way lines are set and subsequently move. Georgia lost two high profile players to the NFL after a disappointing season, and is playing on the road to higher ranked team (not that I think the preseason polls actually mean anything -- I don't -- but people DO look at them and use them as a metric, even if they do so subconsciously).

Paul Westerdawg said...

Dan,

I remembered AU. I thought we were the favorite in Baton Rouge '03. I couldn't remember.

Donnie said...

You could tease Georgia with the point total and you'd have UGA +10 and under 66.5 Put the house on it.

Sam Callan (USAC) said...

As PERSON noted, the spreads are designed to even out the betting. If a lot of money starts to appear on one side or the other, the spread shifts.

Anonymous said...

Hmm, so a Georgia blogger thinks Georgia will win and Bama will lose. How predictable.

Dubbayoo said...

Gee, I wonder what the Bama blogs think about those same two games? Get over it, Anon.

The Cuatro said...

Above commenters are right on... Vegas isn't predicting scores, just trying to get an equal amount of money on either side of the line.

That said, no way this line is anywhere near 6 by kickoff... I'm saying UGA +3.5.

But Paul, I'm right there with you on all three of the lines you pointed out: 1. take BYU +22ish (they won't win but no way they lose by more than 14-17) 2. Dawgs +anything over 3 and 3. Va Tech straight up (and a 6 point spread just makes the payout sweeter).

Bet online at www.Bodog.com. It's legit, no problems putting money in or cashing out with your winnings.

Anonymous said...

To echo what several others have said above, Vegas has no interest in predicting scores---their lines are set based on public perception. Simply put, in a perfect world Vegas would have 50% of betters taking one team, with the other 50% taking the other team. Vegas then collects their 10% winners fee and goes home very happy. This is exactly why the lines move one way or another during game week---its Vegas' way of trying to even out the betting.

In fact, I'm willing to bet that privately some of the guys in Vegas would take UGA straight up against OSU, but again they set their lines based on what they think the public feels about the game. BTW, during game week don't be shocked if the line moves to 4 or even 3...that'll tell you where the smart money is going.

Anonymous said...

I wouldn't be surprised to see that OSU line come down fairly quickly.

Also, Bama Anon: PWWD was just making an observation about a line he saw on a game of some local interest (mostly b/c its being played in Atl.). His comments about it had nothing to do with any sort of Bama animous. But inside the tin foil hat world of Bama football, everything is always about Bama. One of the best observations I've read about Bama and their fans was that Bama doesn't have any healthy rivalries with ANYONE. Bama fans take everything as some sort of epic life-or-death Highlander-style struggle. Its narcissism expressed as paranoia. (disclaimer: of course its not all Bama fans.)

Paul Westerdawg said...

Psst -- Bama fan.

I don't hate Bama. I just think VT is better this year.

PWD

Anonymous said...

I was just checking out the lines in the USA Today here in my hotel room.

2 others that really stood out are South Carolina +3 (cant believe they are underdogs to NC State) and the Gaytors -73.

I dont think i have ever seen a line like that. Really surprised they put one on that game.

DWH said...

Jesus, Bama fans are so sensitive. Anon 8:12, that is classic.

Anonymous said...

Does anyone remember that we gave up 38 points or MORE in 4 of our last regular season games? Not really sure, but I do not think that Kentucky's offense compares to Ok. State. This is a team that was awful on D last year. Yes, injuries were a large part of the problem, but so was coaching and talent. Not too sure we will be much better this season. Take the Cowboys on this one for a little extra Christmas money!

rdbruce said...

Looks like Bama's chances just improved as VT's Orange Bowl MVP and leading freshman-record-setting rusher is out for the year with a torn ACL:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=4392725

Robert said...

OK, I'm going to call you crazy for picking VT straight up. Will Bama struggle with the Hokies' D? Sure. But unless we gift them with 14 points or more, we're going to win...because they're going to struggle with our D too--and that was true before they lost their best offensive player. I don't think people yet understand how good the Bama defense is going to be this year.

I think UGA will win straight up, and by 10+. Living in Tulsa I've been able to watch OSU closely, and they are the dictionary definition of soft. They can't score on good defenses (and yours will be much improved) and they can't stop good offenses (and while you lost top flight talent, you still have plenty). Come out, punch them in the mouth SEC style and they will fold.

For what it's worth, my pick is UGA-Bama in Atlanta for the marbles in December.

Anonymous said...

I'm an OSU grad and I'd take Georgia with 6. That's some easy cash right there.

Anonymous said...

re:point spreads
I don't think Vegas bookies necessarily want 50%-50% splits in the money; they're looking for their biggest expected payout.

For example, say the books are really high on Bama, and believe they're going to win by 2 touchdowns (more accurately, they think there's a 90% chance Bama wins by at least seven or something). They know the diehards will bet on their own team no matter what, but the books will set a line to try and entice average bettors to put money on VT. +6 looks like a pretty generous line to most bettors; VT gets 60% of the money, and, if the books are right, they cash out in a large way.

basically, the books aren't always looking to split the money; they're looking to exploit the public's ignorance.

Anonymous said...

This is not a typical team of OSU's past,this one is for real.
Weapons everywhere and defense will be much improved.Also more depth al over.
New stadium opening w Georgia sell out crowd and national TV.
Like the Cowboys by 3 points but no more.
Hiring of famed DC Bill Young will change the aggressiveness of defense,he is known for that.
Unless injuries decimate the Cowboys thye should be a very dangerous team to play this year.

 
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