Then we can move on to a stats oriented overview of the Dawg season so far from SicemDawgs.com. The stats are harsh, but they are what they are.
I only thing I don't like from his post is the comparison of the numbers of Van Gorder's defenses to those from Willie Martinez. I think that's somewhat unfair or misleading due to the apples to orange nature of the statistical comparison.
The SEC is a much tougher league today, and Willie doesn't have some of the horses that BVG had...many of whom neither recruited.
That's not to disparage what Van Gorder did (or SicemDawg's post for that matter). BVG was an excellent coordinator for us, and the product on the field was clearly better. It's just that the SEC today is tougher and more explosive offensively and defensively because coaching has been upgraded around us which makes the stats part of the conversation misleading:
- Bama traded Coach Fran and Mike Shula for Nick Saban = Upgrade
- Florida traded Ron Zook for Urban Meyer = Upgrade
- South Carolina traded Lou Holtz for Steve Spurrier = Upgrade
- LSU swapped Nick Saban for Les Milses and the results are the same or better
PWD
58 comments:
The BVG comparison is still worth making in Sicem's post because he only gave up 30 points 1 solitary time in 52 games, where Martinez's 2009 version is giving up ON AVERAGE over 30 points.
That stat is a POWERFUL indicator of how far the defense has fallen.
I think the where has our defense been and where is it now in terms of stats is interesting. I think we all know what we see, but I like the numbers, too. Unfortunately, cfbstats.com only goes back to 2004, but I wanted to see if SEC scoring really had gone up and how much our defense really had dropped off. The only stat that really matters to me is the score, so I looked at the conferences average scoring offense vs. our average scoring defense and then tried to come up with a ratio that helps see where we are.
So, here is the average conference scoring offense back to 2004. I only looked at conference games so we're not seeing the results of FCS schools getting whipped by Vandy or Florida for that matter.
2009 - 23.5
2008 - 22.5
2007 - 26.8
2006 - 21.0
2005 - 21.9
2004 - 23.0
So, if you take out 2007, things have been pretty steady. Think about the offenses in 2007 and that will make sense. UGA, UF, UK, LSU, and Arkansas could all score, and I guess Tennessee put up some points (mainly on us) that year as well. But, still, even though I agree that the level of play has gone up in the SEC during that period of time, but offenses have not really gained a big leg up on the defenses in the conference overall.
Then I looked at our scoring defense against conference opponents during that time. Obviously, this is not a perfect comparison because we don't play every SEC team every year, but the East and West have been relatively balanced in terms of scoring (I would've thought the East would've been far higher scoring), so it shouldn't be too bad of a comparison. Here are the numbers
2009 - 35.8
2008 - 26.8
2007 - 21.4
2006 - 21.0
2005 - 16.4
2004 - 16.6
Uh....notice anything? No surprise there. To sum things up, I just divided our average scoring defense by the conference average scoring offense. That relates the two numbers simply. Anything lower than 1 means you are better than average, and the lower the better. Here we are.
2009 -1.52
2008 - 1.19
2007 - 0.80
2006 - 1.0
2005 - 0.75
2004 - 0.72
That just confirms what we all know. Bottom line, with the recruiting ability we have, that number should NEVER be above 1. Ever.
I won't refer to 2009 because it's ongoing, but look at 2008. The four teams in the SEC we didn't play were the numbers 3, 4, 6, and 11 ranked offenses, so it's a pretty fair sample, yet we gave up 20% more points in those games than the average. Anyway, I feel better now.
fuelk2,
As Richt and Bowden would say: Dadgum! I feel better now too. Good comment.
Brian Van Gorder personally offered Thomas Davis on site upon watching the kid play basketball.
Have you seen #10 for Lowndes County play?
Thomas Davis CLONE. Kid is committed to FSU. Never chased by UGA. He is the best player in the state.
Who we have not recruited on defense is just as damning as how bad Willie's coaching has been.
Chase Vasser over Jarvis Jones? Really?
Question on recruiting...A lot of talk here about how Van Gorder had better talent than Willie has been getting.
1. Who is recruiting for the D?
2. Why is Rodney Garner so important that the whole staff has to be reorganized to keep him?
3. If he is all that...then why are we not getting the top talent that people seem to think we are missing?
4. The young talent seems to do better than the old. Are the current coaches teaching them bad habits..Messing up the quality of the recruits?
One thing BVG did so well that Willie can't do is make great adjustments during the game, especially at halftime. We miss that tremendously.
Paul -- Good post. I am not a CWM apologist, but I tire of hearing all of the overstated romanticizing that goes on about BVG. It is not his fault, but the perspective you provide is lost on many. Also lost on many is the fact that the David Green and DJ Shockley led offenses respected the football, chewed up the clock and consistently put points on the board. Also, those early-to-mid 2000 teams had some truly special talent. No disrespect to BVG, but if anyone believes that he personally "coached them up" or schemed them into greatness is delusional. Again, this is not a shot at BVG. Anyway, here are players, who went on to have substantial NFL careers, that were on the defensive roster in the '02 and '05 championship years. Some were nominal contributors in '02, but were significant in '05. I think this current roster has the talent to compete, but I am not so sure we will look back in 5 years and identify 15 NFL players from this year's defensive roster, or last year's for that matter.
NFL players from the '02 & '05 SECC teams
2002
Boss Bailey - Detroit
Greg Blue - Minnesota, Detroit
Chris Clemmons - Philadelphia
Thomas Davis - Carolina
Tim Jennings - Indy
Tony Gilbert - Jax, Atlanta
Johnathan Sullivan - New Orleans
Kedric Golston - Washington
Arnold Harrison - Pittsburgh
Sean Jones - Cleveland, Philadelphia
Demario Minter - Cleveland, Arizona
Quentin Moses - Miami
David Pollack - Cincinnati
Bruce Thorton - Dallas
Robert Geathers - Cincinnati
2005
Tim Jennings - Indy
Greg Blue - Minnesota, Detroit
Asher Allen - Minnesota
Tra Battle - Dallas
Dannell Ellerbe - Cincy
Marcus Howard - Indy
Kedric GOlston - Washington
Charles Johnson - Carolina
Demarito Minter - Cleveland, Arizona
Quentin Moses - Miami
Paul Oliver - San Diego
You guys can harp about our Coaches, past and present, all you want. Richt is doing nothing, and shouldn't do anything until this season is over. Let's see how it plays out..
If you want proof of BVG's ability look at what he's done w/ the Falcons' defense. He is basically using smoke and mirrors to turn a defense w/ no above average talent besides Abraham into a unit that will make the playoffs for a second time this year. Seriously, look at Atlanta's roster. Only a handful of coaches in the NFL could scheme the amount of talent out of that squad the way BVG has. If you swapped him with almost any other defensive coordinator in the NFL, Matt Ryan and company would be in high-scoring shootouts every week. Simply put, BVG is too good a coordinator to ever return to college ball.
Go look at the points in each game that the 2003 Georgia team gave up. Cry.
If I hear the "no talent" argument one more time, I'm going to scream (looking your way, Jeff Dantzler)
Is our talent on defense better or worse than UCLA's, who gave up 15 point to the Volunteers?
Better or worse than Ohio University's, who gave up 34?
Here are Rivals' cumulative stars for our two deep versus Bama's:
Starters
Front 7: UGA 26 Bama 26
Secondary UGA 17 Bama 15
Backups
Front 7: UGA 27 Bama 25
Secondary: UGA 14 Bama 14
I understand we whiffed on a few kids, and we offered a bunch that ended up not coming here (Berry, Burnett, Heyward). But "lack of talent" doesn't fly here, and even if it did, that's no excuse for that abomination of a defense we've seen the past couple of seasons.
Our talent IS down.
But our talent is WAY BETTER than the current product on the field.
Certainly at DT, OL and Safety.
PWD
As someone else pointed out, if our talent is down, then why is Garner so important?
You forgot about UT's huge upgrade from Fulmer to Kiffin.
Can everyone please stop pretending that the SEC has more than two good teams.
Oh, and Spurrier is one of the most overrated coaches of all time.
I don't believe our talent is down. UF, Bama and LSU recruited pretty much every player on our defense.
Our ability to DEVELOP this talent is down. Pollack, T Davis, half of those players on our great defenses a few years ago weren't 4 and 5 stars coming out of high school. They were developed into great players. The problem now is coaching, not talent.
I've been following Pollack on twitter and he raves about BVG.
Pollack: "I talked to him [BVG] yesterday AM and he made me want to strap it on man. Unreal football knowledge.I watched film with BVG every week in College and he cld guess offensive plays 60% of the time. Eats, sleeps and lives football"
BVG is a great coach. CWM isn't a hot commodity because he's not a good coach. If you're running a top ten program it's inevitable that there's going to be turnover in the assistants. We have settled for an average DC.
STOP MAKING EXCUSES FOR MARTINEZ.
My God, does he advertise here or something?
Unbelievable.
Paul,
I do have one issue with the "conference is tougher now than when BVG was here" comment.
The Lou Holtz vs. Steve Spurrier swap is a push IMHO. Where Lou did not have flash on offense, his teams were tougher physically and better motivated. Plus I think you have overestimated Spurrier now vs. what he was at Florida.
Second, I would submit that Tenn under Fulmer during the BVG years was tougher than the Fulmer/Kiffin we faced during the CWM years.
Last, Auburn under Tubby in 2004 went 13-0 and should have been in the National Championship picture.
You are absolutely spot on about the upgrades at Alabama and Florida.
So is the conference tougher now than under BVG? I think that is a real stretch of an argument to make.
Keith
Can no one answer the great questions asked about Garner above? If he is so damn good at evaluating and recruiting, then why in the hell is our talent down? I agree that our talent is down, but for everyone to call for CWM head and not Garner because he is so great is crazy.
If coaching changes are to be made on Defense, it should not just apply to the leadership. Everyone is at fault and everyone should be held accountable.
A Head Coach cannot simplyfire his DC and replace him with another while maintaining the staff of the former DC. Comprehensive changes must be made and it starts with replacing the entire staff.
Hire the DC and let him form his own unit. Give him the latitude to make decisions and employ the BEST coaches for each position.
But whatever Richt does, don't think he can simply replace WM with RG - huge mistake. Garner is part of the problem, not part of the solution.
Unfortunately for UGa, UT, FL, AL, AU, and others have us over a barrell when it comes to replacing our "best" recruiter. Should Garner leave, the relationships with high school coaches in this state would have to be formed again and that takes time. This would allow competing schools to gain a stronger footing. Can it be done? Yes. It is dangerous? Yes.
But, sometimes changes in mgmt are needed to inject new ideas, new energy, and new methods.
In terms of our Defense, our need to upgraded coaching is greater than the risk of losing recruits to our competitors.
Anon 9:26 -- Wouldn't life be great if personnel evaluations were scientific. Have you ever been in a position of making hires? If you have and if you have been at it for several years you will recognize that some who you knew were going to be great (based on resume/pedigree, references, interviews, etc.,) turned out to be a complete mess, while others who were unknown or undervalued commodities have gone on to be franchise players. There are any number of factors that can influence the development or lack thereof of talent (especially when trying to project what 17 & 18 yr old kids will become). I think Garner's track record speaks for itself in that he hits more than he misses. Should he be held accountable? Of course. Is there room for improvement? There always is and will be. I think Bill Parcells, Bill Walsh, etc., have had bad draft picks and bad overall drafts, but it is the body of work over the entire career that proves worth.
Dantzler might be an annoying Bob Costas/Mike Bell love child, but he is spot on about the talent and he's not doing so to cover for the coaches.
Our talent IS down AND our coaching stinks.
No one "coached up" Thomas DAvis and David Pollock. Do you think if Pollock had gone to Tech, he would've ended up a nobody? If TD had gone to Troy, he'd be flipping burgers? Gimme a break.
They weren't identified and offered by several skools, ergo Jamie Newberg and other idiots didn't rate them a "can't miss" or a "five star".
Stop reading the drivel on those 'cruitin sites and look at the product on the field. Let's play where are they now recruitin memories: Eric McClendon, Mudcat, Jabari Davis, Derek Morris, Willie Williams.
Outside Rennie, are LB's stink. Our safeties are worse than Kirby Smart. 1 of our DB's was beat out by Bryan Evans for a starting position last yr. Yes, the same Evans that was demoted to Safety for lack of ability. Our Ends couldn't bull rush a wet paper sack and Geno and Jeff can't control an entire offense from the interior line (neither could Stroud and Seymour when they were here, the position doesn't allow for it).
From Stem to Stern this team is below avg. If you didn't watch games from 93-95, then you're unfamiliar with what an SEC team w/ 2 or 3 amazing players and a bunch of stiffs looks like.
Is RG to blame? Heck if I know. Whomever came up w/ this tradition of offering guys 18 mos in advance (and offering avg team mates of excellent players) needs to question the approach. We're not evaluating as well as Jim Donnan's staff did. That's a fact.
You can have the best talent in the world but if not coached, really coached in a complex system like what is run in college football, it doesn't matter.
I went to Marietta High in the mid to late 80's. We always had AMAZING natural athletes but until Dexter Wood came in and really coached, it didn't matter. State of the art strength training. Film study. One on one instruction. It was amazing. He never won a state title at MHS, but he made it deep into the playoffs each year. The level of the program changed and guys who were not so naturally inclined excelled because they learned the game and were coached up.
Remember Duke beating UNLV years ago? Coaching beat raw athletic ability.
And BVG is the freaking man. The Falcons D doesn't have many names but their game Sunday was incredible.
And another thing...these effin excuses need to stop. Every other college team in the country has the same boundaries as UGA. They just seem willing to GET IT DONE.
Any chance that we go after David Pollack to be DC? He played for BVG and he had to learn some things from him if only by osmosis. Plus, it may prove beneficial to have the best edge rusher in school history teaching on the staff considering how important edge rushing is to the entire defensive scheme.
it seems week to week everyone keeps harping on defense or special teams, did anyone else notice this week that they were the only people to score points for us? all 19 of them.
the talent is down, we have a few bright spots but #7 and #24 where hiding the fact that our overall talent depth is not good enough, now its evident at every aspect of the game except AJ.
in the end it doesnt matter if the talent is down or if they're not getting coached up because either way its the coaches who evaluate, choose, teach, and motivate the players and that ultimately falls to CMR.
"And another thing...these effin excuses need to stop. Every other college team in the country has the same boundaries as UGA. They just seem willing to GET IT DONE."
thank you. we keep pointing the finger at refs, turnovers, Willie, play calling, talent, etc etc. In the end we need to hold CMR responsible, its his ship to stop sinking and until we recognize that we will continue to point the finger at unanswerable excuses.
vance cuff arrested yesterday...
Here's a disturbing thought:
If the ref doesn't call the celebration and we beat LSU, I believe we have the exact same game in Knockville that we had Sat.
This wasn't an LSU hangover. This was a failure to run the ball. A failure to protect the ball. A failure to confuse a QB. A failure.
Vance Cuff. Yet another scooter violation.
Anon 11:13AM,
Pollack has said he couldn't coach b/c it requires too much time away from the family. Plus, "the love is gone." I guess in regards to football.
Chip Towers shattering the "talent" myth:
http://blogs.ajc.com/recruiting/2009/10/14/talent-should-be-least-of-problems-on-georgia-defense/?cxntfid=blogs_recruiting
Good info Paul.The stats also indicate that stacy searrls = kevin ramsey CWM can no longer be defended. Kick coverage does not exist. I know that sounds bad , numbers don't lie. BW and DB are having great years the only bright spot.
Anon 12:32 -- Towers stated "Based on the recruiting rankings....talent should be the least of the problems for the Bulldogs." That is a huge qualifier. We can also turn that around and state..."based on recruiting rankings -- David Pollack should have been a fullback....Thomas Davis should have been playing at Grambling....Richard Seymour should have been an average college player" Or, based on scouting projections...."Jeff George should be in Canton, Ohio, along with Andrey Bruce and Tony Mandarich." What is the point, that scouting/rankings are imperfect projections????
Again, the coaching has been sub-par, to say the least. Willie probably needs to be fired or demoted after the season, but to suggest that we are not down from our talent levels of the early to mid 2000s is not being realistic. Things are not always as binary as we might hope.
I guess CVG won the assistant of the year award twice because the SEC was down. Give me a break. CVG is so much further ahead of cwm it's not even debatable. cwm has been terrible for years, and if it wasn't for the amazing talents of Stafford and Moreno to outscore the oppenent and blind most to the problems of the defense, the heat would have been on him long ago. Five years after leaving UGA, CVG is a DC in the NFL; the pinnacle of a defensive coaches career. Five years after cwm leaves UGA (hopefully this year), he'll be lucky to be coaching the secondary for a class A high school team. (I was going to write he would be lucky to be coaching the secondary in the Lingerie League, but I guess we all would hope to be this lucky).
I'm not sure how anyone above can think I'm defending Willie.
I'm just saying you don't need the BVG comparison to see what's wrong.
What ever happened to Charles White, Linebacker recruited about 3 years ago ?
He and josh Johnson joined Aaron scranton in competitive mma
anon 10:55,
don't say anything about UGA football history or "pollock" til you learn to spell his damn name right. its pollack.
We're doomed. Rennie Curran has a bench warrant out.
http://chronicle.augusta.com/stories/latest/lat_702521.shtml?v=2051
I'm personally going to go up to athens and drive everyone around
maybe we can send Willie to Brazil?
One thing stood out to me from the UT game among all of the bad: the team was emotionally very flat. I can't remember us being so emotionally out of a game against Tennessee.
Part of this was due to the schedule draw. The kids were high during the LSU game. It was very emotionally draining to lose that way at the end of the game. No one showed emotion during the UT game, even when we were able to hang around. It's very tough to be up for a consecutive game like UT following on that, especially when the game lacked the drama of past years. But of course, that's required for life in the SEC.
I haven't seen us so physically dominated in a game like that in years. The reality is that we are likely not as bad as we seemed. Chalk a lot of it up to the emotion (or lack of).
One thing is certain is that UT is going to be coming on. For the Kiffins to be accomplishing what they are with the talent they inheirited is pretty impressive. We are going to have our work cut out for us in future years against them, and that is scary. Even more unfortunate, we played right into Kiffin's hands on the recruiting front.
Vanderbilt is coming just in the nick of time. We need this game badly.
If we lose, the season folds.
I am the master of the obvious.
@Anon 11:43
Just like Quinton. Is he fired yet?
I can't remember us being so emotionally out of a game against Tennessee.
I can. The last time we played them in Knoxville we stunk it up.
And BVG is to some GA fans what Bear Bryant is to some Alabama fans. A God among men.
I say to hell with him. He ain't coming back here so why even bring up his name? I hope he coaches the Falcons to many years of first round playoff losses.
No true Georgian would wish that on the Falcons.
I think anyone who says that 2 or 3 star players can't be coached up to be NFL players is an absolute idiot.
Pollack was a stiff fullback that some coach on the defensive side of the ball coached up. Likewise Thomas Davis. And according to Pollack, it was CVG. Some coaches can teach players run lights out fundamentals and then turn around and make you want to run through a wall for them. Thats what CVG was.
But I do agree, its time to move on from the CVG argument. Its irrelevant. CWM sucks and its time to move on, but its got nothing to do with CVG. Also, the SEC is better argument might be correct, but its not stopping Bama and Fla. defense from being better than they were in 2005.
Anon 9:54 -- The point isn't that players can't be coached up...rather the point was that "2 or 3 star players" aren't 2 or 3 star players if they end up playing in the NFL. Rather, they were players who had NFL potential and were able to reach it. By the definition, they were mis-graded and were indeed, not 2 or 3 star players. They were future NFL players who Rivals and others mis-judged. The "idiots" are the people who accept as gospel the whole premise of the star grading system, which are designation made by website journalist and their opinions about how an 17 & 18 year old kid is going to develop. Again, I am personally not saying BVG was not a very good DC or that CWM does not need to be fired. But, people need to accept the fact that we have had a downturn in talent level and we need to collectively turn the page on the BVG vs CWM comparison because..... 1. He is not coming back 2. It is irrelevant whether he could/would do anything more with this Defense that CWM is doing 3. It is no more productive to talk about CWM not being BVG than it is to discuss Richard Samuel is not Herschel Walker
Oh and by the way, that 9ers d that BVG held to 10 points is horrendus. Just trying to keep everything in perspective.
Make that "9ers O".
That horrendous SF offense is tied for 10th in scoring. David Copperfield has nothing on BVG.
Do you guys even watch NFL? The Niners offense is decent. It's nowhere near as bad as you guys are trying to make it sound.
Stupid f*ggots.
wow...from the lack of anything insightful over the past three days on this blog...its clear to see that Georgia Football is dead for the remainder of the 2009 season
Can someone translate booger's comment?
I don't speak 'Fake UF Football Fan'.
Be sure to come by the big Gator bus at the WLOCP on Oct 31st...this "fake" fan will be manning the BBQ..getting ready for the puppy beat down...oh..the only thing that’s fake around here is calling that squad you put on the field every sat a Defense.....
I would bet the farm on the fact that there are probably 30 DCs in the NCAAs that could take this defense and make it stout. Hell, it might be closer to 50. Some are probably in the Div 2 and lower.
You know what is lame paul? When I need your insight the most (i.e. when Georgia has a stomach punch game) you go AWOL.
I realize that it sucks to talk about a team that sucks, but we need some help with our group therapy.
This has been a crappy trend with your blog over the years (lack of posts after a loss). Get your stuff together man we need ya.
I forgot to make my damn picks yesterday and lost 12 points with the default USF selection. The pick'em season is dead to me.
@boogers
Once again show proof or STFU. Post some pics of this epic RV and tailgating setup. Until then, you're full of sh*t.
Hurry up and google those pics I requested, fatty.
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