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October 19, 2009

SEC West and Bowl Thoughts for the Bye Week

Some thoughts on the SEC West, this coming weekend and bowls.

Arkansas at Ole Miss - 12:30 PM
    The Almond Joys Bowl. The Hawgs are 3-3 with very winnable remaining games vs. Eastern Michigan, Troy and Mississippi State. Those games give them bowl eligibility, but it's the Ole Miss and South Carolina games that decide are they going to the Papa John's/Independence Bowl, or do they have a shot at the Chick-Fil-A Bowl?

    For Ole Miss (4-2), the Arkansas game is also enormous. They'll be obvious favorites against Northern Arizona and MSU. But this Saturday is the first of three games in four weeks (Ark, at Auburn and Tennessee) that will go a long way towards deciding if this is a Cotton Bowl team or Liberty Bowl team. If the Rebels can't beat Arkansas at home, they're going no where interesting this December.
Auburn at LSU - 7:30 pm
    Auburn should get mauled in this one. If you can't beat Kentucky and Arkansas, how are you going to beat a dramatically more talented LSU team? The problem is...the Cajuns have a deeply flawed team as well. They are beatable. Auburn won't do it with the QB play they got last week, but it's not impossible.

    The big swing games for Auburn appear to be Ole Miss and Georgia. Beat both the Rebels and Dawgs, and the Aubies can find themselves in Tampa or Atlanta. Get swept by both, and they'll vacation at the Papa John's Bowl. The LSU game is mostly important because they don't want to face Ole Miss coming off three consecutive SEC loses.
My SEC Bowl forecast right now is:
    National Title - Bama
    Sugar - Florida
    Capital One - LSU
    Cotton - Ole Miss
    Outback - Kentucky (I'm assuming they beat UT)
    Peach - South Carolina
    Music City - Georgia
    Liberty - Tennessee
    Independence - Arkansas
    Papa Johns - Auburn
Basically, I think we're going to end up with a bunch of 6 to 8 win teams that are all bunched up and assigned to bowls based on georgraphy and ticket sales opportunities. UK is probably seeded a bit high, but the former CEO of Outback Steakhouse is a UK Grad. He also is a major driving force behind the Outback Bowl's existance.

Where do you think teams end up?

PWD

19 comments:

SCdawg said...

looks bout right. ide move kentucky below sc, uga, and ut. i dont think uk or sc will beat tennessee. that puts us in peach.

JasonC said...

Remember when Auburn's QB was at the top of the stats list earlier this year? That offense broke down in a hurry.

Anonymous said...

existEnce

Anonymous said...

If Georgia's season stays the same which I anticipate it will, same coaching,. We should end up in the Toilet Bowl. Then we can flush this season, flush the coaches away, and hopefully get some coaches worthy of a top ten type program. If not Georgia will remain a 2nd or third tier team in the S.E.C. which most people see nothing wrong with. Oh well. We can hope.

Anonymous said...

Math could be off but these are just approximations. I'm gonna be real nervous about even making a bowl if we lose to UF and Auburn. It would be pretty embarassing if we were the reason the SEC had to give up a bowl slot to the ACC or to the Big Joke.

Nat'l Title - Bama (13-0)

Sugar - UF (12-1)

Capital One - LSU (9-3, loss to either Ole Miss, Ark, or Auburn)

Cotton - Ole Miss (8-4, lose 2 to Auburn, Tenn, LSU, Ark)

Outback - USC (8-4, loss to UF, lose 1, maybe 2 to Tenn/Ark/Clemson)

Peach - Auburn (7-5, loss to Bama, lose 2, maybe one to LSU/UGA/Ole Miss)

Music City - Kentucky (7-5, lose 2, maybe 1 to Georgia, TN)

Liberty - TN (7-5, lose 2, maybe 1 to USC/Miss/KY)

Independence - Arkansas (7-5, lose 2 to Ole Miss/USC/LSU)

Papa Johns - UGA (6-6, loss to UF/GT, lose 1 to AU/KY)

Anonymous said...

National Title - Florida
Sugar - Alabama
Capital One - LSU
Cotton - Arkansas
Outback - Tennessee
Peach - Auburn
Music City - South Carolina
Liberty - Ole Miss
Independence - Kentucky
Pizza Bowl - Mississippi State

PTC DAWG said...

I see the DAWGS losing 1 more game...our bowl will be better than most think.

2ndly, with fans like the one above wanting to "flush" this season, who needs enemies?

Anonymous said...

Natty- Florida
Sugar- LSU
Cap- Bama
Cotton- Ole Miss
Outback- Cocks
Peach- Dawgs
Music City- Tenn
Liberty- Kentucky
Independence- Arkansas
Papa John's- Auburn

LSU will beat Bama. Everyone assumes it's bama and florida in the dome but bama is due for a bad performance (UL-Monroe, Utah) and LSU will turn it up in the second half of the season.

Andy said...

After the Tennessee game, this is hard to say, but Florida looks beatable after that showing against Arkansas (damn, Arkansas looked good, and how we beat them, I'll never know). I know that's crazy, and I don't want to get too far ahead, but 10 and 3 (depending on which bowl we go too, I hope we smack them in the mouth) is where I want to finish. We'll have to get past Florida, but I don't think that's crazy. We can do it, we've done it before.

One game at a time.

Roll Tide: beat LSU and beat Florida in Atlanta. I say that because I'm sick of Florida and all the love they get. Roll Tide.

Anonymous said...

I'm thinking Dawgs-Jackets rematch at the Dome... that would be awesome.

Anonymous said...

lmfao @ 10-3. Put down the crack pipe. We'll be lucky to go 3-2 the rest of the way, let alone 5-0. Just cause we can run up the score on Vandy (who by the way has the second worst run defense in the SEC), doesn't mean we can compete with real teams yet.

Hi There said...

Quick Question:

What happens in the event of a 3 way tie in the SEC East? Is the winner decided by just head to head matchups?

Dream Scenario- UGA beats UF and wins out. UF loses again to USC and USC wins out. All 3 would end up with 2 SEC losses. UGA wins the SEC East right? (I realize this will never happen, just wondering.)

Unknown said...

on other fronts, the Arkansas pigs sent in video to review the personal foul penalty on Arkansas that moved the Florida ball to the ten yard line, which eventually led to the game tying score at 20 all....anyways, "The Southeastern Conference says there's no video evidence to support the personal foul call against Arkansas' Malcolm Sheppard in the fourth quarter of the Razorbacks' 23-20 loss to Florida."... seems to me that the super star officiating crew that worked our game and this one likes to make phantom calls that determine the outcome of games....scandal?


http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=4577932

Anonymous said...

IF we got to the Music City Bowl. Just go ahead and pencil in a loss.

Anonymous said...

I hate to put on the tinfoil hat but after watching the same group of refs give a game to the higher ranked team twice in two weeks it's kind of hard not to.

Is there some sort of financial or career advantage for the refs if our conference finishes with highly ranked teams? Do they get more money or get better bowl assignments or something? I don't believe in some widespread conspiracy but I can see a crew getting a little too excited and calling things they shouldn't if their pocketbooks are on the line.

I like PWDs bowl predictions but I think it's still too early to tell this year. I have a sick feeling that both Florida and Bama will lose something along the way and we'll be stuck with a Texas vs. Iowa national title game. But that assumes Texas doesn't have a breakdown of its own.

Andy said...

I'm not smoking crack; I simply expect to turn it around after that debacle in Knoxville.

VAdawg said...

I think Florida will lose in the regular season. Frankly, I like that they have to go all the way to Starkeville to play a very physical MSU team the week before we get them. Miss St. has a great running back in Dixon and you know Mullen will have his team ready to play against his former boss. I don't think the other bulldogs win, but I think the game looks a lot like the FLA-ARK game. Then the gators have to come back home and rest up from five tough games in a row...
Now whether the dawgs can capitalize Florida's misfortunes is far from certain. In order to have a prayer in JAX, the o-line will have to put together its best performance yet, joe cox must not throw INTs, the secondary will have to do something, and Washaun has to have a major coming out party. Oh and AJ will need at least 8 touches. And we'll need special teams to play out of their gourds....
So maybe its far-fetched. But either Miss St, Georgia, or SC will beat the gators. Why not us?

GATA

Anonymous said...

I think the Music City Bowl is probably not the destination for a 6 win team... and I hate to be a pessimist, but the only win we can really count on the rest of the way is Tenn. Tech. Kentucky is a likely win, but everything else is either a likely loss or at best a toss-up. I would have to say Auburn is a toss-up, but that Florida and Georgia Tech are likely losses. 6, 7 wins at best... I hope for better - just trying to be grounded.

If it comes down to a 6 win Georgia and a 6 win Tennessee, then we're down there in Independence/Birmingham territory.

DallasDawg said...

I can't believe I'm saying this but I'm actually hoping we can get to the Peach (chicken) bowl.

 
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