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January 17, 2011

Georgia Basketball Update

My optimism for basketball is the yin to my football pessimism's yang.  I'm sky high on hoops right now.  Here are some quick updates:
  • Tickets for UT Game -- As of 9 am this morning, there were ~900 tickets left for sale to the UGA vs. UT game on Tuesday night at 7 pm.  I would argue that it's the biggest game of Coach Fox's tenure to date.  Win this one, and we're 3-1 in the SEC and positioned to re-enter the Top 25 rankings.  Also...win it and the UF game next week in Athens is even bigger.
  • Speaking of the Top 25 -- Both polls basically have Georgia at 27th right now.  Coach Harrick said it best...the reason the Top 25 polls matter...ESPN shows ALL the highlights from those games. It's purely a TV/Recruiting/Perception thing.
  • RPI on the Rise -- RealTimeRPI and Sportsline both have Georgia with an RPI of 38.  They list our Strength of Schedule (SOS) as 83rd and rising.  Remember, it was ~224 about 2 weeks ago.  StatSheet.com projects our SOS at 52nd by seasons end which will be plenty strong enough for us to make a compelling case to the committee at 10-6 in the SEC.
  • SEC and the Tourney -- The league is still a hot mess right now overall with the West as a boat anchor on the league's credibility.  When you monitor our RPI, keep the RPI of the entire SEC in mind.  It's likely the league will only put four teams into the big dance.  We're currently 5th in the league in RPI, and the Vols are 4th.  Yet another reason that Tuesday's game is so important.  Bruce Pearl will be back for the rematch in Knoxville so this is a big opportunity.
  • Projecting Wins -- I thought this was a 10 or 11 conference win team preseason IF we stayed healthy and learned to win on the road.  So far...so good.  It's interesting that Ken Pomeroy lists Georgia as roughly a 39% chance to win 10-12 SEC games based on current data models.  Pomeroy and RealTimeRPI both have our most likely scenario as 9 conference wins.  Nine would put us squarely on the bubble looking up with a major push required in the SEC tourney.  
I expect Joe Lunardi's latest Bracketology to come out Tuesday.  The Dawgs are currently among the last teams out of the tourney on the bubble watch (5 teams ahead of us).  I expect us to be right on the edge when tomorrow's edition comes out.

Keep pulling for Colorado, UAB and Xavier to win as both are undefeated in conference play so far.  It certainly wouldn't hurt for Notre Dame and Temple to also excel.

PWD

8 comments:

Matt H. said...

Lunardi would have had UGA as a 10-seed if the bracket came out today...

http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/blog?name=ncbexperts&id=6030242

(ESPN Insider account required)

Interestingly, he has UGA as the 39th best team and UT as the 38th, which furthers your point that the game tomorrow is huge... Probably a very good gauge for where we stand right now. Looked like the Ole Miss game would be a better gauge a week ago.

Anonymous said...

Very fired up as well, Paul! Great info and I hope everyone will take advantage of those remaining tickets for tomorrow's game and give the Dawgs a home court advantage like we had vs. Kentucky.

I'm with you in believing this is a 10-6 SEC team, however I disagree that we would need a huge SEC tourney run if we went 9-7. If we pull out the last non conference game we have vs. Xavier, and win just one in the SEC tourney, I definitely think we'd be in the dance since the field now has 68 teams.

Gonna be a fun ride!

Anonymous said...

Well, I'll be damned. You are still alive.

We gotta go 10-6.

Anonymous said...

Another sign of life for the program...the Miss St. game on Saturday and the Auburn game on 2/5are already sold out as well.

PTC DAWG said...

As usual, good BBALL info. Keep it up.

Carlton said...

The latest Bracketology from Joe Lunardi is out and has us a 10 in the West playing 7 Georgetown in the West Regional. Pitt is the 1 Seed in this bracket and should this hold true and we advance to 2nd round, we'd face overrated SDSU....
We're not in the Last 4 In...so that's good news...

Anonymous said...

Jobbed.

BCSAV said...

That loss tonight hurts real bad. Can't afford to come out flat every other game like we continue to do. A lot of pressure back on the Dawgs in these next 2.

 
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