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October 16, 2014

Georgia's chances against Arkansas

I know stats might lie, but Bill Connely has a good eye for using them well. In his weekly SEC conference projections, he's got Georgia winning the East in a probable 2 game runaway:
Odds of SEC conference records

Part of this is based on who each team in the East has to play yet (yay! we avoid Ole Miss and Mississippi State). Part is based on Georgia being an 80%+ favorite in all remaining conference games but Auburn, where we are currently a 65-45 dog.

Just for laughs, here is how we stack up against Arkansas:

Just looking over this, we are significantly better than Arkansas in offensive efficiency, and slightly better at defensive efficiency. I also want to call your attention to STE - Special Teams Efficiency, the scoring value earned by field goal, punt and kickoff units measured in points per average game, and FPA - Field Position Advantage, the share of the value of total starting field position earned by each team against its opponents.

Both of those indicate a another significant difference in the two teams. Looking over those two factors, especially the special teams efficiency, it isn't hard to see punt and kickoff coverage/returns being huge factors for UGA Saturday. Georgia's average starting field position on the season is our 35. Our opponents are starting on their 25. While ten yards doesn't seem like that much, when you multiply that over 10-13 possessions a game, it is huge, especially against a team that wants to grind it out against you.



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