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November 13, 2014

Auburn's record and schedule

When you look at Auburn's record and schedule, the difficulty of their schedule jumps out at you. They've gone on the road and played a pretty good Kansas State team. Of course, they lost to a very good Mississippi State team. They lost to a middle of the road Texas A&M. Their best win is road victory over Ole Miss.

Auburn's FPI and schedule.
Strength of Record (RK)93.1 (7)
Adj Win-Loss (RK)8.5 - 0.5 (5)
Game Control (RK)88.7 (13)
Adj Win Probability (RK)67.3% (12)
Avg Win Probability (RK)61.3% (33)
FPI (RK)25.9 (2)
Projected W-L8.9 - 3.1 (23)
Chance of winning out17.3%
Chance of winning conference5.3%
SOS Remaining RK35
20.39 (3)5.88 (27)1.08 (39)27.35 (5)
Sat, Aug 30 15.8 (20)93
Sat, Sept 6 -7.2 (91)75
Thu, Sept 18 15.8 (18)94
Sat, Sept 27 3.5 (57)83
Sat, Oct 4 20.0 (12)96
Sat, Oct 11 20.8 (11)44
Sat, Oct 25 11.2 (32)81
Sat, Nov 1 25.0 (4)96
Sat, Nov 8 16.6 (17)42
When you compare and contrast that with Georgia's, you see a couple of key differences. First, Georgia's best win is over Arkansas on the road. The loss to Florida is worse than Auburn's loss to Texas A&M, though it was at a neutral site. The final thing that is different is that the overall won-loss record of the teams Auburn has played is much better, mostly on account of the difference in the records of the SEC East vs. SEC West teams.

Strength of Record (RK)87.2 (15)
Adj Win-Loss (RK)8.0 - 1.0 (12)
Game Control (RK)92.5 (8)
Adj Win Probability (RK)69.8% (7)
Avg Win Probability (RK)68.4% (13)
FPI (RK)22.9 (6)
Projected W-L9.6 - 3.0 (18)
Chance of winning out18.5%
Chance of winning conference27.1%
SOS Remaining RK46
19.48 (5)3.61 (41)2.89 (11)25.98 (7)
Sat, Aug 30 15.5 (22)91
Sat, Sept 13 11.2 (32)49
Sat, Sept 20 -20.9 (124)71
Sat, Sept 27 10.9 (34)81
Sat, Oct 4 -7.3 (93)73
Sat, Oct 11 8.8 (38)93
Sat, Oct 18 15.8 (20)96
Sat, Nov 1 15.3 (23)41
Sat, Nov 8 4.4 (50)90
I'll be honest, I'm not feeling great about this game except for a couple of key things. First, Auburn hasn't played well the past few games. Let's put aside the Mississippi State game. They came close to beating Texas A&M, but honestly had no business being in that game late. South Carolina when blow for blow with Auburn, only to lose on the road after Thompson threw two 4th Quarter ints in the end zone. Ole Miss had Auburn beaten until they litterally got a huge break.

I'm in Blutarsky's camp. If we win, it'll be either because we had the ball last or Auburn gave up a couple of key turnovers. If you can't stomach seeing a team run the football against Georgia, stay at home Saturday. It's going to happen. The good news is that Auburn hasn't been great at keeping teams from moving on them, either.


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