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March 19, 2015

UGA's chances of winning against Michigan State

As I stated the other day, this is a tough draw for the Dawgs. Michigan State is a 5 seed playing in a 7 seed spot.  That doesn't mean all is lost, but I sure would feel more confident if we drew VCU or Iowa. That being said, I still think we have a legit chance to win.

Michigan State loves to run. Big Ten hoops is predicated on the same type of basketball Fox likes to play. We'll not face the bog down hack and pull we saw against South Carolina/Auburn/Tennessee/Mississippi State. Now, Michigan State loves to run. While our depth concerns me, the one thing that running teams have trouble with is getting back on defense and impatience with teams that like to move the ball around and use the shot clock.

As frustrating as UGA's offense can be, the one huge bonus it gives you is that when you are holding the ball, the other team cannot score. Mark Fox preaches a nearly Norman Dale'esque level of passing pre-shot. There is a method to that madness, especially against a team that would be perfectly happy with a 20 second shot clock.

Related to that is running teams have  tendency to get aggressive on defense at bad times.

Virtually no one beyond Mark Bradley is giving Georgia a chance in this game, for lots of good basketball reasons. Among the reasons they shouldn't discount UGA is #SECbasketballfever, which I believe most of them are. Arkansas is most like Michigan State in the SEC. We've faced that kind of running team in Kentucky (though built very differently). 

If the Spartans put us on the line 20 times, which I think they do, and we hit 70% of our free throws, which I think we will, we win.

Tip is tomorrow at 12:40pm on TruTV.


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