Dawgs finish ranked 9th

Let the 'worst 10 win team in history' nonsense start now.

I'll have more on the season later, but consider this: would you have been ok with 10 wins and a top 10 ranking on August 28, 2014? Clearly, I would have.
TD

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I see you Missouri and South Carolina

I'm not attributing all of Missouri's successes this year to 'turnover luck.' For one, I think part of that is made by how aggressively you play and focus on creating turnovers. For two, turnover luck only turns up to be important over the season in one possession games. Unless you are Houston. One look at their 43 turnovers created this season will tell you everything you need to know what Westerdawg thought Gibbs was worth a look for DC.

Missouri won by playing good enough defense, but in the end, they were only in two one possession games all season: The loss to South Carolina, where they were +2 in TOs; and the win over Texas A&M where they were +1 in turnovers.

South Carolina was on the top of the turnover luck list, too. They were in four one possession games, and were 3-1 in them. It shouldn't come as a surprise that they were -2 in that game against Tennessee.

Georgia was near the bottom, but nearly all on the strength (weakness?) of the Missouri game. We finished the year at -7 on TO margin, which put us at 101st in the nation. But we were -4 against Missouri. Just have our normal -1 and we are 20 places better.

Also, I'd be curious to know if anyone had worse turnovers than Georgia, as far as field position and such goes.

TD

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The Gator Bowl: An extended metaphor of the 2013 season

I'm sure I'll take several gratuitous swipes at [pick one: oline play, dropsies, lack of defensive coaching ability, lack of punt fielding, qb decision making, play calling] over the next few months, but this article will be all I have to say about the Gator Bowl. 

I had decided to watch it again for a full game review. Then on the drive yesterday, I decided I would just erase it. Now, I'm going to keep it just in case. So unless I change my mind in the depths of March's despair over no football at all, I'll not rewatch it. For the proper antitoxin, I have Florida, South Carolina, LSU, and Tech recorded, too.

I'm glad I wasn't the only one that felt relief that the season was over. That was my over riding sense after I was over being upset for Artie that his career would end in a drop and what asshole fans would say about that. This season has been the toughest for me since Donnan's last year and it isn't close.

Strangely, this game represented a nearly full microcosm of the season. Even the officiating followed that (think the personal foul on Garrison for tackling the QB on an option play or the lack of a targeting call when a Georgia receiver gets lit up in the head). Since things fall into general areas, this seems easiest:

1. Offensive line play. I mentioned it in the 3 questions. This group has had the most head-scratching season of the whole team. You can point to injuries or inexperience other places. There is none of that here. There are times through the season that the offensive line just total owned their opponents. Think both game ending drives against South Carolina and Florida, or the utter ownage of Georgia Tech in the overtime possessions. Then there are times when Georgia's backfield looks like the clowns coming out of a cop car bit with all of the opposing defensive players running wild in the backfield. The Gator Bowl was the same. Mason had his poor moments, no doubt, but how much of that was due to the pressure Nebraska got early (while only rushing 4 or 5) or because we got not push on red zone runs? And how much did Gurley get tagged at the line of scrimmage when blocks didn't move anyone? Then you look at other times when the line just owned Nebraska's front and Mason had plenty of time. A very mixed performance by the line, which is exactly what you could say for the season.
2. Defensive stoppage. I got taken to task for laying any blame on the loss on the defense. I get what folks were saying, but I still stand by my assessment that the defense's stunning coming to be expected coverage breakdowns at the worst possible times played a roll in this loss. Giving credit where it is due, they held Nebraska to their third lowest offensive out put of the season and below their season YPP average. That was with a 99 yard play. But that play....That series was Georgia's entire defensive season in a three part satire. It wouldn't have been any more ridiculously played out if Robin Williams was doing blow on the sideline while calling the defensive sets. For more on this, read Bill Connelly's Gator Bowl preview. In the end, Georgia didn't have enough stops, which you need when you have...
3. Punt return fail. As they say, the definition of insanity is when you keep doing the same dumb thing over and over expecting a different outcome. Welcome to Georgia's punt return philosophy. I get that we don't have to have a full time special teams coach. What about a Special Teams Consultant? Or Director of Non-Every Down Specialists? 4th Down Shaman? Our punt return philosophy has devolved from don't do anything to hurt field position to do the stupidest possible thing at the stupidest possible time. It is tough for any defense to get a stop, just to be sent back out to defend a short field that they had not part in. That was on glaring display in the Gator Bowl.
4. Fullback impact. I don't know what Quayvon Hicks did, I implore him to fix it. Beg. Grovel. Work like life depends on it. I love Merritt Hall, but Hicks' ability to pound people running the ball, and his threat to catch it changes things. I'd mention his physicality blocking, but I suspect his blocking breakdowns are part of the reasons he hasn't played much. 
5. Suspensions. This list can't be complete without this. Revisionist history aside, I would have loved to see JHC and Tray Matthews playing. Especially JHC on the 99 yard play. 
6. Injuries and their impact. This game is total different with any one of the following: Gurley at full speed/strength, Murray playing, Marshall at full speed/strength, Mitchell playing, Justin-Scott Wesley playing. Any one of those changes the offensive game plan and allows the offense to do the things we do best. 

I'll get to coaching issues when I look at the season, but even coaching followed the season's trend. The injuries limiting what Bobo could call in the redzone. Player substitution on defense. Who we sent back for punt returns. Play calling. All of it.

TD

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Clemson: Why we can win

Well, stuff like this:

Go to 1:17. (Or go here for a better vid)

The conventional wisdom is that we will have a #MACtion like score fest come Saturday night. That may well be the case. We know UGA can score from all over. The real concern Clemson has to have will be if we play like it is the seventh game of the season instead of the first, at least from a game planning standpoint.

If we come out with the full playbook and make Clemson's secondary chose stopping the run or deep cover help with Murray making checkoffs, then Clemson is in a world of hurt.

One other thing, even if our defense is walking wounded and guys that haven't practiced enough, Clemson can be made to be a one trick pony. South Carolina has given us a template in keeping Boyd in check. Against the Gamecocks, Boyd is a combined 22 of 53 for 266 yards, 2TDs, 3 Ints. Rushing he has 28 attempt for 3 net yards. He's been sacked by them 11 times. They did it by bringing rushers in and collapsing the pocket on Boyd and keeping a greendog on him at all times. That and keeping those WRs from getting quick outs and open deep.

Now, we don't have Clowney out there who is going to demand double or triple teams, but we do have speed at DE, LB and S, even with injuries. If we force Boyd into making bad decisions early, it will be a very fun night.

TD

PS. Any Clemson fan out there want to mention the comeback on LSU, let me be sure you understand the vast differences in our QB, TBs, and coaches. You might get the ball back once, but you are going to have to stop any combination of TB and FB runs/passes, plus TE/FB screens. You won't see three Murray passes in the boundary or sidelines IF we need to kill the clock. If Murray is throwing the ball deeper than five yards, it'll be to Conley, Mitchell, or Scott-Wesley running deep. Or you could see the play above or 344-Fullback or a play action jet to Marshall.

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CapitalOne Bowl Rewatch

I've had one more game in the DVR que that I haven't watched. I'll get to the best play from that game, in my mind, in a few days (hint: Chris Conley). Just a few thoughts:

• The interception on the first drive was Murrays' worst of the season. He nearly pointed at the receiver, then under threw the pass without accounting for the deep cover help. Just not a well thought out play.
• Nebraska did a good job keeping Murray off kilter with stunts, blitzes, and well timed interference. Still Murray didn't throw many really sharp balls until the second half.
• That being said, the interception on the screen pass was a busted timing play. Marshall got tangled up and knocked down and the Nebraska guy just made a nice play on the ball.
• Richt was in the officials' ears a fair amount. Didn't remember seeing that much.
• The 75 yard TD play to King was under thrown. King did as much to complete that pass as Murray.
• Let's see more of that Wild Dog, amirite?
• Speaking of Conley, that 47 yard TD throw from Murray in the 3rd was such beautiful play. Murray froze the D with the pump fake, then put a perfect bomb in his receiver's hands. Just a glorious play.
• The defense gave up a lot of untouched four+ yard runs.
• The second half was more like what I wanted to see. 7pts, 182 yards allowed. Still a lot of rushing yards, though.

I'm also going to say one thing I've had rolling around in my head about last year's defense: I believe in Alec Ogletree's talent, but he sure looked out of place a bunch. I believe he is a great Georgia Bulldog. I believe he was relied on and didn't deliver at times. I've watched Florida, Alabama, and Nebraska in the past few weeks. I've watched the defense give up big plays in the middle of the field. I don't know what that means for this year, but it is out there. Ogleetree made some very big plays when we needed him to. He also was out of position or moving the wrong direction on so many plays that went for 20+ yards.

Not calling him out. In fact, I'd might say he was put in positions by the coaches that didn't allow him to make those plays. Now, that is something worth worrying about as we close on one week to Clemson. That, and Nebraska's ability to freeze everyone with the threat of Martinez running.

TD

PS. I didn't intend for this to sound like a dark place post. Just was in a place to consider tempering my enthusiasm. This game did that, despite the win.

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Grantham's Defense, Part One

A comment on a prior post got me to thinking, how bad was Georgia's defense? I know we finished 32nd in the nation, but when you also finish 6th in your own conference, there is room for debate there.

So how did we do?

From cfbstats.com:

Date	Opponent	Result	Plays	Total Yards	Yards/Play	Dev from Yards/Play
9/1/2012	Buffalo	W 45-23	70	347	4.96	-0.25
9/8/2012	@ Missouri	W 41-20	80	371	4.64	-0.29
9/15/2012	Fla. Atlantic	W 56-20	71	318	4.48	-0.58
9/22/2012	23 Vanderbilt	W 48-3	61	337	5.52	-0.13
9/29/2012	Tennessee	W 51-44	85	478	5.62	-0.8
10/6/2012	@ 8 South Carolina	L 7-35	61	392	6.43	0.71
10/20/2012	@ Kentucky	W 29-24	63	329	5.22	0.44
10/27/2012	+ 9 Florida	W 17-9	69	266	3.86	-1.39
11/3/2012	Mississippi	W 37-10	57	234	4.11	-1.62
11/10/2012	@ Auburn	W 38-0	49	238	4.86	-0.41
11/17/2012	Ga. Southern	W 45-14	62	318	5.13	*
11/24/2012	Georgia Tech	W 42-10	88	426	4.84	-1.32
12/1/2012	+ 1 Alabama	L 28-32	72	512	7.11	0.16
1/1/2013	+ 25 Nebraska	W 45-31	79	443	5.61	-0.59

So, our two worst games, from a YPP perspective were Kentucky and SC. I our two best were Florida and Georgia Tech. I realize that YPP might not fully capture the nature of a defensive performance, so I also thought I'd look at scoring defense.

Date	Opponent	Result	TD	Points	Dev from ppg
9/1/2012	Buffalo	W 45-23	3	23	1.5
9/8/2012	@ Missouri	W 41-20	2	20	-5.8
9/15/2012	Fla. Atlantic	W 56-20	3	20	-0.5
9/22/2012	23 Vanderbilt	W 48-3	0	3	-27
9/29/2012	Tennessee	W 51-44	6	44	7.8
10/6/2012	@ 8 South Carolina	L 7-35	5	35	3.5
10/20/2012	@ Kentucky	W 29-24	3	24	6.1
10/27/2012	+ 9 Florida	W 17-9	0	9	-17.5
11/3/2012	Mississippi	W 37-10	1	10	-21.5
11/10/2012	@ Auburn	W 38-0	0	0	-18.7
11/17/2012	Ga. Southern	W 45-14	2	14	*
11/24/2012	Georgia Tech	W 42-10	1	10	-23.6
12/1/2012	+ 1 Alabama	L 28-32	4	32	-6.7
1/1/2013	+ 25 Nebraska	W 45-31	4	31	-3.8

Again, nothing too earth shattering. Not sure you can read too much into this, other than we held 9 of our 13 DI opponents under their season average and held three of our biggest rivals to more than 2.5 TDs below their season average.

So, I know you are about to go on about rushing. Rightfully so. We were not good at run defense, particularly against teams that already run the ball well, right?

Date	Opponent	Result	Att	Yards	Avg.	TD	Dev from ypc
9/1/2012	Buffalo	W 45-23	45	199	4.42	2	-0.06
9/8/2012	@ Missouri	W 41-20	39	102	2.62	0	-1.05
9/15/2012	Fla. Atlantic	W 56-20	38	135	3.55	1	0.21
9/22/2012	23 Vanderbilt	W 48-3	36	106	2.94	0	-1.2
9/29/2012	Tennessee	W 51-44	40	197	4.93	3	0.57
10/6/2012	@ 8 South Carolina	L 7-35	51	230	4.51	2	0.84
10/20/2012	@ Kentucky	W 29-24	43	206	4.79	2	0.66
10/27/2012	+ 9 Florida	W 17-9	40	75	1.88	0	-2.65
11/3/2012	Mississippi	W 37-10	29	46	1.59	0	-2.5
11/10/2012	@ Auburn	W 38-0	27	57	2.11	0	-1.96
11/17/2012	Ga. Southern	W 45-14	58	302	5.21	2
11/24/2012	Georgia Tech	W 42-10	67	306	4.57	1	-0.82
12/1/2012	+ 1 Alabama	L 28-32	51	350	6.86	3	1.27
1/1/2013	+ 25 Nebraska	W 45-31	52	239	4.6	1	-0.76

Little side note, Nebraska, Alabama, Gerogia Tech, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Florida Atlantic, Missouri, and Buffalo ran the ball more times than their season average against Georgia. Alabama did so 12 times more than their season average. I suspect part of this has to do with keeping Georgia's offense off the field. I know part of it has to do with teams deciding that running the ball was the better way to move the ball on Georgia (as we were ranked top 10 in pass defense).

Actually that bore itself out over the season, as Georgia faced the fourth fewest pass attempts per game in the nation. Georgia faced more rushing attempts than 115 teams. Teams decided that the only way to beat Georgia was to run the ball. The only real fault I can find is the 4.14 yards per carry Georgia gave up. That put us in the mid-60s in the nation.

Just to wrap up:

• Four teams scored more than their season average.
• One team score more than a TD more than their season average.
• Three teams had more ypc than their average.
• Only two teams ran for substantially more ypc than their season average. 
• Four teams scored 2.5 TDs fewer than their season average.
• We were thoroughly average at yards per carry nationally.

I'd say overall, Georgia's defense had three bad games: South Carolina, Tennessee and Kentucky. They had two slightly below average (considering the competition) games: Buffalo and Florida Atlantic. They had several average games, including Alabama (except for their yard per carry) and Nebraska. When you consider seven of Nebraska's points were on a gimme interception return, seven of South Carolina's points were on a punt return, seven of Tennessee's points were on a interception return (plus the Vols got two turnovers inside of the 20 yard line that were converted into TDs), and FAU had a TD returned for a TD, those games aren't as bad. 

Hell, looking at the Tennessee game, in hindsight the offense is closer to being at blame for what happened there, especially on the scoring side.

Nothing about this season made me think we had a terrible defense. Yes, even with the talent we had. Could we have done more? Certainly. Could it have been worse? Always. Just understand what we are talking about when you start with the Grantham should just leave non-sense line. 

TD

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Strength and Conditioning

Mark Richt rebuilt the Georgia Bulldog football program in 2001 on the core premise of Finishing the Drill. The idea was simple. If we work harder than the other guys, we're going to win the fourth quarter and therefore the game. (Image by Jim Hipple)

There's been lots of bitching and moaning here and elsewhere about our strength program. The crux of the argument usually sounds like this, "Look at us getting mauled at the line of scrimmage." Or "I hear bad things about S&C." Beyond that the feedback is usually either very vague or full of innuendo.

I'll be the first to admit that I don't really know what goes on in the weight room. But you know what? I don't care. I don't give a damn if they try ballet, dabble in yoga, bust rocks or replicate the Siberian Workout Scene from Rocky IV. The process is of no interest to me. All I care about is the outcome.

This year against BCS opposition, Georgia was outscored in the fourth quarter/OT in 8 of 10 games by a combined score of 54 UGA to 88 opposition. In the six losses, the numbers are even more lopsided at 37-61. That point differential is an unacceptable outcome.

This isn't a symptom of some larger issue. This is one of the DNA-level problems that Coach Richt has to resolve between now and next season, and it's not going to be solved by touting fake 40 yard dash times or making field trips the swimming pool.

It's time to GATA again.

PWD

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Aaron Murray's Freshman Season

If you had told me preseason that Aaron Murray would throw for 2,851 yards, 24 TDs and only 6 INTs with one game remaining on the schedule, I would've thought for sure that we'd have won 9-10 games. Easily. But here we sit at 6-6. (Image by Jim Hipple)

As a point of comparison, here are the first year starter totals for other recent UGA QBs:

• Joe Cox (RSr.) - 2,584 yards / 24 TDs / 15 INTs
  
• Matt Stafford (Fr.) - 1,749 / 7 TDs / 13 INTs
  
• DJ Shockley (RSr.) - 2,588 / 24 TDs / 5 INTs
  
• David Green (RFr.) - 2,789 / 17 TDs
  
• Quincy Carter (Fr.) - 2,484 / 12 TDs
  
• Mike Bobo (RJr.) - 2,440 / 13 TDs
  
• Eric Zeier (Fr.) - 1,984 / 7 TDs

INT information isn't as easy to get your hands on prior to 2004. Also...Bobo was technically a first year starter in 1995, but he was injured so early that I didn't think it was fair to post those stats.

Murray's current passer rating of 162.7 is greater than Mike Bobo's UGA single season record of 155.8. His 61.8% completion percentage is third best in UGA history for a single season, and he's one TD away from tying the single season Georgia record Matt Stafford obtained in his final season before being the #1 pick of the draft.

All of which baffles me when I think about us being 6-6.

PWD

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The unavoidable question: What If?

Russ at work (Image: Hipple)

So that was a bit unexpected huh? Raise your hand if you thought our tailbacks would rush for 340+ yards and average 9.2 yards per carry. I'm thrilled for the seniors and the entire team to get the stink of losing to Tech off them.

A game like that makes you ask yourself..."What if?" What if we had ran the ball like that all year? What if we had played defense like that all season? What if we don't turn the ball over +17 times on the season? What if we could've made it through 10 of our games with 5 or fewer penalties like we did Saturday?

Some of those are legit questions. Some aren't completely fair. It's important to remember:

• Caleb King and Washaun Ealey - King and Ealey missed almost the entire Fall camp due to injuries. King didn't return until Week 3, and he broke his jaw against LSU in Week 5. Ealey didn't debut until Week 5 from his injuries and lost practice time. Maybe Ealey could've arrived a week earlier, but he was legitimately behind. Our top running backs from the first two games haven't gotten a carry since Tennessee Tech.
  
  
• The Offensive Line - Josh Davis is a guy that I had little optimism for when he was signed. I believe it was one his HS coaches that disparaged the kid's upside so that wasn't a good sign. The past few weeks, he's played really well and shored up the revolving door at one of the tackle positions since Sturdivant went down. However, he's not the only reason the OL looked so much better. In the early season, the running backs couldn't find a 10 foot wide cut-back lane with the help of Garmin, Mapquest and Sacajawea. The vision, patience and aggressiveness was a total mess. The OL looked better versus GT because they are playing better, yes. But also because their holes weren't missed.
  
  
• Offensive Play Calling - This has been a puzzler for most of the year. As Blutarsky has said many times this year, we faced a crisis of confidence as a program. The play calling suggested that Richt and Bobo didn't believe our kids could make certain plays. In fairness, I didn't either. And the stats suggested that maybe we couldn't. But here's a stat to put your head around (borrowed and enhanced from a commenter on DawgPost.com)...We averaged 27.7 points per game this season. That's with a kid at QB whose only other scholarship offer was Duke. A kid that wouldn't be starting at Duke now. Yet, Bobo's guys in '09 averaged more points than the 2003 unit that won the SEC East and within 0.2 points from our loaded 2004 squad. It's possible that Bobo doesn't need to be run off...he needs a damn hug for working a miracle with the talent gap at QB, late blooming RBs and inconsistent OL. As for the turnovers, I point back towards the early season issues at Running Back as the QB situation.
  
  
• The Defense - John Wooden said that there's no such thing as "overachieving." If you do something, that's the level for which you can consistently achieve. In other words, it's physically impossible to do more than you can do. What we saw on Saturday defensively was what the UGA defense can do. It's what the UGA defense should've done all year. The DTs played to their ability. The LBs took the violence to the ball carriers instead of absorbing collisions, and Reshad Jones continued what was quietly a nice season. I realize Justin Houston didn't arrive until the Arkansas game, but that doesn't explain all the issues at DL this season. It doesn't explain why Rambo sat while Evans struggled, and it doesn't explain why so much talent took so long to come together. That's the reason Richt is off soul searching right now. And answering that question of himself and his coaches is the key to the future of the program.

Overall, it was an awesome effort, and I was proud of the kids. They looked like they had a great time. I know I enjoyed watching them.

PWD

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Things I Learned to Hate in 2008-2009

Every year my hate meter fluctuates somewhat.  Not on hating the truly repellent things, like the University of Florida, Dennis Felton's "offense," or temperance.  No, the fluctuating hate is at the margins and often temporary, but it is still a quality vitriol.  Here are a few things I can't forgive for their actions last year. 

1. Alabama. - Some of you have always hated Alabama and will hate them forever.  I didn't really mind them too much until last year because we had beaten them in thrilling fashion during the Richt era and they were sometimes good for a crucial win over Florida or Tennessee when the East standings were tight.  This year's game set up perfectly for us: home night game, blackout, Bama showered bulletin board material at us, UF lost that afternoon, national television audience, USC lost earlier in the week, #1 was back in our grasp.  It had the feeling of a coronation in pregame warm-ups.  Then, this happened.  Total despair.  You won't endear yourself to me ever again, Bammers.  On a related note ...
2. Being #1 Before the End of a Season. - Georgia doesn't do well as #1, unless they are hitting forehands, riding horses, or doing somersaults.  Need proof?  Football started the season at #1 and produced one of the most disappointing seasons we are likely to ever produce.  Baseball was #1 before, and briefly during, the conference slate.  They ended the year with a 3-12 streak and didn't host a regional, which appeared to be a lock half way through the year.  Even the golf team, ranked #1 for almost all of the year, almost choked away a spot for match play day before falling in the final four.  If we are never #1 during a season ever again, I'm OK.  I'll wait until the end of the season for that ranking.
3. Rain - It makes the grass grow, sure, but rain really screwed us this year.  First, with the SEC Baseball Tournament title in sight, the SEC umps marched Alex McRee to the mound under heavy rain in Hoover and no hope of a break in the weather.  McRee gave up seven runs in the top of the first with water pouring off the bill of his cap.  Then, the umps called a four hour delay and we resumed play down 7-0 without McRee.  In the improved climate, LSU waltzed through the game and eventually took the title.  We were still trying to dry off.  It wasn't just baseball, though.  In the NCAA tennis quarterfinals, the Dawgs had just finished taking the doubles point from Texas when a long line of Texas thunderstorms soaked College Station and delayed play until the next morning.  Texas came out regrouped and ready.  The Horns got four singles courts in route to a 4-2 win, ending the season for UGA. 

Honorable mentions include: timeouts, Jeff Dantzler's designated driver, the Rally Rat, knee instability, and the inferno stadium bathrooms at Arizona State.

Any others that I should have listed?

Quinton

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The Year in Stop Motion

The Athens Banner-Herald released their now annual year in review stop motion video.



I really like the style of these highlights, but last year's was better.  I liked the string soundtrack more than this year's standard rap song.  You don't see many highlight videos with compelling banjo music.  It was so original. 

Quinton

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Video: Looking Back at 2007

I love this Georgia Bulldog video because it flashes back and forth between the media pundits saying what UGA "can't do" vs. what the team actually did. (ht - battledawg on The Porch)

Video uploaded by gdawgydawg.

PWD

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UGA vs. Colorado Highlights

Highlights of the 2006 Georgia Bulldogs vs. Colorado Buffaloes football game.

Our offense was horrible the first three quarters of the game. We couldn't run, block, pass, protect the ball, avoid sacks or catch. And on defense, we couldn't stop the stretch play, stretch play boot run, or stretch play boot play action to the tight end. Just totally befuddled. Then in the fourth quarter, we woke up and played one of our better quarters of football all season. Ugly game with a great moment of redeemption for Martrez.

Uploaded to youtube by DawgTrader.

PWD

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More on Felton's contract extension from Damon Evans

Damon was very diplomatic describing his expectations for continued improvement while commending Felton for his progress to date.

See Also:
-- Felton's raise - ABH
-- Four more years - AJC
-- Evans looking for improvements - DawgPost.com
-- Felton's extension - UGAsports.com

pwd

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Hoops Suggestion: Smarter Scheduling

Groo at expressed this better than I will, but Georgia needs to improve its basketball scheduling. Many fans clamor for improvements at the top of their non-conference schedule. However, I think Georgia needs improvement at the bottom end of its out of conference lineup. As Groo pointed out:

This year Georgia played Southern (RPI 289), Jacksonville (RPI 198), South Carolina State (RPI 288), Alabama A&M (RPI 334), Gardner-Webb (RPI 268), and Kennesaw (277). Those games are boat anchors to a team’s perceived strength. The Dawgs couldn’t even count a win over Valdosta State (in terms of the RPI) because the Blazers are a Division 2 school.

It's important to note that Georgia isn't a HBCU institution; therefore, we probably don't need to play 3 HBCU schools per year.


As Groo pointed out, playing schools with an RPI sub-250 is a major drain on RPI. When Georgia beat Kennesaw State in February, our RPI dropped 8 spots. Groo also correctly points out:

"Hold on a second," you say. "Georgia had the #14 schedule according to Palm’s collegerpi.com. Why are you talking about schedule?" Sure they did. They play in the SEC East. The only SEC East team without a top 30 schedule was Florida. The strong conference schedule masks the fact that the nonconference schedule had problems.

If you play the #1 RPI team and you play the #300 RPI team, they only average at 150. So you beat one and you lose to the other. If you played two RPI teams in the 50-100 range, you might get two wins AND the two teams would have an average RPI at around 60-75. Now, I'm no bracketologist, but I think the latter offers a greater opportunity for post-season success / participation.

I'm all for playing 1 or 2 "Ben Hur" type non-conference games. I loved the epic overtime game with #1 UNC in '97 (loss), the thrilling victory over #2 Pitt in '02 and this year's Wisconsin game was good for the program.

Making the tourney is about scheduling smart.
Not scheduling hard.
Jim Harrick had lots of flaws, and many of them I've beaten into the ground here. But the guy was the absolute master scheduler. He correctly saw the value in scheduling teams with an RPI around 30-125 and avoiding the real dregs of college basketball.25

What we can learn from Harrick's scheduling:
-- Load up on mid-tier power conference and mid-major teams. Harrick signed and extended multi-year deals with Colorado and Minnesota. He also played Pepperdine and Villanova (when they were medicore) on the road.

-- Utilize neutral site games as much as possible. He scheduled Georgetown in Springfield, Ma (W), Cal in Oakland (W), Texas in Madison Square Garden (L), NCSU in Atlanta (W). He even played Georgia Southern in Savannah, which was brilliant in that the RPI gives you greater credit for winning in a neutral setting than winning at home.

(Image: Ezra Williams vs. Georgetown)

-- Utilize REAL pre-season tourneys. The sham Paradise Jam tourney that Felton signed us up for in 2006 was a mockery. We played Old Dominion (RPI: 73 loss), Fordham (RPI: 126 Win) and EKU (RPI 267 W). Harrick sent us to Maui (a variety of mid-tier guys + Hawaii), Alaska (KU, Louisville and Grambling) and San Juan (Indiana St., Utah and Stanford). The Alaska thing was overly aggressive, but otherwise a good model to consider.

-- Avoid the worst of the worst. Harrick did a great job of steering clear of the bottom feeders of college hoops. Sure, we played Mercer, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Appy State, UW-M, South Alabama and Belmont. But he didn't play them all in 1 year! In fact, in glancing at Ken Pomeroy's RPI archives, it looks like Harrick only scheduled 1 or 2 sub-RPI 250 teams per year, and he only played an RPI sub-300 team once (Grambling in Alaska).

Whereas, Felton has been scheduling 4-6 of those teams per year.

Who fits the profile of ideal teams for us to play?
I thought Felton had struck gold with the Oregon State match-up. A bottom tier Power Conference team is always a great scheduling move to fill up the lower half of the non-conference slate.

Others that might fit the profile of traditional mid to lower tier power conference teams include Baylor, Colorado, Nebraska, Northwestern, Minnesota (pre-Tubby), Penn State, Iowa State, Rutgers, DePaul, Seton Hall, Miami, Clemson, Arizona State, or Oregon State. See also: Tulane, Houston, UAB, Southern Miss, UMass, St. Louis, St. Joe's, Colorado State, etc. Yes, some of these are currently ranked below 200 in the RPI, but they are consistently going to pull a respectable RPI.

Next year's Schedule

Road: WKU and Wisconsin

Home: GT, Wake and Clemson (if we renew)

Neutral: Gonzaga (Seattle), Duke (NYC / Rumored) and TBD (Gwinnett/ATL)

Scheduling for post-tourney participation is a science. Not an art.

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Hoops Suggestion for Next Year: A Better Showing for TV

We're currently struggling to get the season ticket holders with prime seats behind the team benches to consistently show up for games. This isn't a new problem. We even had this issue when Harrick's final two squads were selling out every SEC Home game.

The costs of the tickets and contributions for those seats are relatively low. Therefore, someone with modest disposable income can cost justify attending only a few prime weekend games and/or UK or UF while wasting the remaining tickets. Unfortunately, those empty seats are prominently featured on TV.

The Suggestions....

Suggestion 1: Move the TV camera perspective to the opposite side of the arena. Duke (and I think LSU) do this. They showcase the student section side of the crowd instead of the coaches side. I recently suggested this to the proper folks at Butts-Mehre. It turns out that we did this in the past (some time pre-'94). Unfortunately, switching the TV pespective has legitimate logistical, advertising, signage and premium seating challenges. It's a tricky issues, but it's a switch I'd like to see us make.

Suggestion 2: Test an aftermarket ticket reseller program similar to Stubhub.com that gives season ticket holders the ability to return tickets or sell their tickets to other fans. This could give fans the ability to purchase premium tickets from other fans. Many college programs including Alabama, Mississippi State, Southern Cal, Georgetown and others utlize such after market ticket exchanges. However, I have no idea if they are successful or not.

(Full Disclosure: The Georgia Sports Blog is an affiliate for Stubhub.com. However, I'm curious about these programs regardless of the vendor or in-house provider).

For the suggestions from last week, click here and here.

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Hoops Suggestion for Next Year: Find Another Takais

Image: Georgiadogs.com

When a college basketball coaching staff searches the JUCO ranks for a power forward, they are looking for a guy exactly like Takais Brown. A 6'8" 240 lb. grown ass man that immediately walks into a power conference and averages 14.6 points and 5.6 rebounds per game. That is success. For Georgia to accelerate the pace of its turn around, I think we need another JUCO impact player.

Why now?
We've signed several front court players for the class of 2007-2008. But I don't think any of them are going to start for Georgia next year. Assuming Mercer comes back healthy next year, our starting lineup probably looks like this:

PG - S. Gaines
SG - M. Mercer
SF - T. Woodbury
PF - T. Brown
C - R. Singleton

Singleton improved dramatically at the defensive end from Year 1 to Year 2, but his hands, rebounding, passing and offense still need a *ton* of work. Albert Jackson (injured) is still very raw, and Dave Bliss isn't a full time solution because of his bad back. We need another somewhat polished big man who can compete in the SEC. I'm not sure Jeremy Price is that guy next year either. Hopefully, he is. In my opinion, we need another JUCU big man.

Realistically, we also need another shooter. Hopefully, Terrance Woodbury and Billy Humphrey can combine to replace Levi Stukes' outside shot. It's more realistic to hope those two find consistency in their outside game than to hope Jackson, Singleton and Bliss become SEC Caliber starters at the Center position.

Obviously, JUCO big men like Takais don't grow on trees, and I'm not confident that we're even looking for one. But I think we should consider it.

That said, one of the most reliable sources around the UGA program is "elevator" on the UGAsports.com message board. He's a former UGA player, assistant coach and radio color man. He says Georgia is looking at two JUCO guards that are "ready to step in immediately and make a real difference." If Felton can land a scoring combo guard or swingman like Tubby landed in '96 with Katu Davis, that would be huge.

Either way, we need 1 or 2 more players who are SEC Caliber starters immediately.

See Also:
-- Signing class for 2007-2008 - Scout.com

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Hoops: Where the Dawgs Improved in 2007

Image: georgiadogs.com

Judging a program like Georgia's that is pursuing such a tremendous rebuilding job requires a longer view than game to game or even week to week. You have to look year to year.

When you consider that Felton has improved from 12th to 11th to tied for 5th in the SEC overall during the past three years, that's improvement. When you see his SEC win total rise from 2 to 5 to 8 over the past 3 years, that's also improvement.

This season also saw only our third SEC Tournament win since Tubby left 10 years ago. Felton has two of the three wins. We also returned to the post-season, which was the minimum requirement for calling this season "progress."

When you see all of this happening for a program that 4 years ago had no juniors, sophomores or healthy freshmen, that's all progress.

The Numbers:
A look inside the numbers shows other areas of improvement and opportunities to do better.

Stats	2007 (SEC rank)	2006 (SEC rank)	Comments
Offensive Points/Game	75.1 (5th)	70.3 (6th)	Improved, but they averaged 69.1 points / game in SEC play in '07.
Defensive Points Allowed	69.1 (7th)	70.9 (11th)	Improvement relative to others, but we're still giving up way too many per game vs. our peers.
Total Rebounds	37.9 (3rd)	34.8 (7th)	Nice improvement.
Offensive Reb.	14.03 (1st)	13.13 (3rd)	If it weren't for offensive put backs from the boards, our scoring really would look bad.
FG percentage	.462 (4th)	.431 (12th)	Great improvement! Mostly from adding Takais.
3 pt. percentage	.381 (2nd)	.340 (8th)	Solid improvement.
3 pt. percentage Defensive	.359 (11th)	.349 (6th)	Regressed.
Assists / game	14.67 (8th)	12.57 (10th)	Still way too low.
Turnover Margin	0.24 (5th)	+2.0 (4th)
Assists to Turnover Ratio	0.93 (12th)	.81 (11th)	Still no progress.
Rebounding Margin	+5.7 (2nd)	-2.0 (11th)	Exceptional improvement.
Steals	8.88 (2nd)	9.07 (2nd)	Gaines and Mercer are beasts, and they aren't alone.

Felton is making progress, but there are still HUGE flaws in our game. Flaws that haven't changed in his four years. Poor ball and player movement and bad turnover to assist ratios plague us on the offensive end.

On the defensive end, we give up WAY too many points from a coach who considers himself a "defense first" type of guy. When you consider what we have to sacrifice as basketball fans on the offensive end to watch paint dry from a scheme standpoint, it is inexplicable why we don't have a better defense by now.

The only numbers that are misleading are the rebounding stats. You could look at those rebounding numbers and assume that our big men are much better than they are. Sundiata Gaines, Mike Mercer, and Billy Humphrey are as good at rebounding as any guards their size in the country. We need to improve our front court rebounding in 2008.

The Players:
The two biggest improvements in personnel were Sundiata Gaines and Takais Brown. Brown became everything Felton could've ever hoped for and more. We'll cover that topic in more detail soon. Gaines has also evolved his game, and he became one of the better point guards in the SEC this year.

Woodbury also showed inconsistent flashes of greatness. His performance in Rupp Arena reminded me of a very raw Jarvis Hayes type game. However, his performance in many other games reminded more of Derrick Dukes (ie: no defense for long stretches and streaky as hell). Regardless, the kid has huge upside.

Rashad Singleton also made big strides defensively. Unfortunately, he is as useless as tits on a bull on the offensive end. But he's making progress.

Prior to the injury, Mercer was having a standout year. He still struggles with shot selection, but his retooled shot did look better than his FR year. Several of the players took big steps in 2007.


The team also had to overcome incredible adversity this year.

Overall:
All in all, we improved year over year. The pace of improvement is still slower than anyone would like. Given the pace of progress, it's hard at this point to look to the 2007-2008 and expect anything less than an NCAA tourney appearance. Anything short of that goal would be either stagnation or regression, and we don't have the time for either.

It's time for Felton to take the next logical step. If not, there will / should be some hard decisions in Athens next year.

I'll offer some thoughts / suggestions on how the program can improve over the next few days.

Agree or disagree? Feel free to comment.

See Also:
-- Chip Towers Season recap - AJC

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