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August 4, 2008

An Early Peek Westward



At SEC media days, the SEC writers picked Florida and Auburn to meet up in Atlanta on December 6th for the SEC crown. While I obviously disagree with the Florida pick, I can sort of understand the media's reasons. But, I think there's more reasons to pick LSU over Auburn in the West, a subject largely ignored outside of Baton Rouge.



First, let's take a look at the big knock on LSU: the lack of an experienced quarterback after the dismissal of Ryan Perrilloux. That leaves LSU with Andrew Hatch (two career passing attempts) and Jarrett Lee (no college playing experience) to manage Gary Crowton's offense. Inexperience at QB in the SEC leads to bad things, no doubt, but is this a definitive advantage for Auburn? The Plainsmen may have QBs with more than two career attempts, but not too many more. Kodi Burns has 26 career passing attempts and of those, he completed 10. Auburn will also look to junior college transfer Chris Todd, who played in a few games at Texas Tech, but has as much SEC experience as Lee.



Auburn's new offensive coordinator Tony Franklin's offense will be fine, but I think it will be limited in the first part of the season because the players will still be working out some kinks. After watching the Peach Bowl, Franklin's new offense looked to be a bunch of read draws and screen plays, but we know better. How much of it will Burns, Todd or the rest of the offense have mastered when LSU's defense comes to town? Plus, you've got to have the right guy to run that system and I'm not sure that Kodi Burns is an Omar Haugabook clone. I know he won't be after three games.



LSU's supporting cast on offense is either as good or better than Auburn's. Auburn's got a load of quality running backs, but so does LSU. Auburn returns their entire offensive line, two of whom are seniors. LSU returns four offensive linemen, all of which are upperclassmen and two of whom made All-SEC teams last year. Plus, I'll take LaFell, Tolliver, and Byrd over every receiver on Auburn's roster. Auburn's slight edge at QB, I think, is more than outweighed by LSU's stronger supporting cast on offense. The QB simply has to get the ball to other guys who can make plays for LSU. Auburn's QB will have to make things happen.



Both teams replace defensive coordinators that bolted for Big 12 jobs last year, but I give LSU the nod on defense. I know Auburn returns a bunch of extremely good players on defense like Sen'Derrick Marks and Tray Blackmon, but so does LSU. The purple and gold return a killer defensive line, maybe the best in the country, even after losing Glenn Dorsey. LSU promoted their co-coordinators from within to preserve consistency, while the Aubs hired Paul Rhodes from Pitt, last seen joyously trouncing Rich Rodriguez's title hopes. Don't expect much change from Auburn's defense considering Tubs runs that defense no matter who the DC is. I think LSU has more talent and it's a push scheme-wise.





To me, LSU is the better team. The important advantage that Auburn enjoys over LSU is that their game is in Auburn, where LSU hasn't won since 1995 1998 (although 2004 was the only time I've ever seen this penalty and 2006 was filled with controversial calls). I say LSU wins at Auburn this year and plays in Atlanta.



Quinton

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

I agree with this comparison 100%.

The team to watch out for though is Bama. JP Wilson should be more consistent in that short passing offense they have installed over there. They have the opportunity to beat everyone except us and LSU. I think they finally take down Auburn this year...

Ole Miss is going to be the sleeper (not for the west title, but to knock off a team or 2). They could also beat Auburn.

Anonymous said...

I like LSU over Auburn. Too much along the lines.

Hobnail_Boot said...

As long as Sarah Jessica Parker is taking snaps for the Crimson Tide, LSU and Auburn don't need to worry about anything.

Anonymous said...

LSU has found a way to lose at Auburn the last four times they've been there.

They've (LSU) been ranked in the Top 10 the last three going in. Auburn was ranked higher only one of those times (2004 - Auburn #3, LSU #6)

Hard to bet against Auburn when they will be fairly even again at Auburn's joint.

 
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