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November 25, 2008

Georgia's Bowl Situation and other Projections

It is not a total lock that Georgia would go to the Capital One Bowl if we lost to Georgia Tech. If South Carolina and Ole Miss close their seasons at 8-4 with a win over a heated rival, that might make them as attractive as a Georgia fan base coming off a loss to the Jackets. However, it does look like a high probability either way that we'll end up in Orlando.

Saturday is a bigger game for Tech's bowl opportunities. A Tech win puts them squarely into Peach or Gator with the obvious shot at the Orange Bowl if they back door the ACC Title game. A Tech loss would devastate their bowl opportunities. Tech will never win an ACC Title game coming off a loss to UGA. Plus, their fans are notoriously weak travelers following a loss to the Dawgs. They could fall to the Champ Sports or Music City Bowl with a loss.

Other Bowl News:
  • BCS Bowls: No SEC Championship game loser has ever made a BCS Bowl before. That will change this year unless Florida were to lose to both FSU and Alabama. In that scenario, it is possible that Georgia (if we beat Tech) would make the Sugar Bowl (likely against Utah) over the Gators who would have 3 losses. Most pundits predict Florida in the title game and Bama in the Sugar. The Tide hasn't been to the Sugar Bowl since Jan. 1, 1993.

  • Capital One Bowl - Georgia is most likely destined for Orlando. Oddly, the game to watch for UGA fans is the Oregon State vs. Oregon game. If the Beavers beat the Ducks, Ohio State will likely be bumped from a BCS at-large birth. The Buckeyes would be ranked 9th or 10th and Georgia would likely be ranked 11th or 12th heading into that game. If the Beavers lose, Georgia will likely face Michigan State. One local Spartan newspaper thinks a date with UGA would be bad news for MSU.

  • Outback Bowl - The State in Columbia says that the Gamecocks may be headed to Tampa regardless of the outcome of their date with Clemson. Michigan State and Iowa seem to be front runners for the Big 10 spot. (See Also - Mandel on the Big 10 Bowls)

  • Cotton - the Dallas Morning News would love to see UGA vs. Texas Tech. It ain't gonna happen. They say it's more likely to be Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss in a gross mismatch, but good for the Rebels. If they get Croomed by Mississippi State on Friday, then LSU will slide into this slot.

  • Chick-Fil-A Bowl - If the Atlanta Sports Council finds LSU vs. Florida State under their Christmas Tree, it would be the luckiest break their bowl has caught in a while. Any combo of LSU vs. FSU or Georgia Tech would draw well. Boston College vs anyone would be a ticket fiasco.

  • Music City - The Music City Bowl has stated that it isn't opposed to selecting Vanderbilt. After back to back trips to Nashville by Kentucky, it would seem that Vandy staying local wouldn't be a bad idea. The Music City and Liberty Bowls actually pick at the same time. They both make a list of the teams they want in order 1-3, and the SEC works with those lists (plus the desires of the teams affected) to place the teams. Vandy or UK will end up here barring a combo of UK beating UT and LSU falling to Arkansas. The ACC is too complex to know where anyone will land this far down their pecking order.

  • Liberty - See the comments above. Vanderbilt vs. the Conference USA Champ is my prediction, but UK could end up here as well.

  • Independence - The fellas in Shreveport need Auburn to beat Alabama, Notre Dame to beat Southern Cal (and the Cotton to take ND instead of Ole Miss) or some other calamity in order for the SEC to have enough bowl eligible teams for the Independence Bowl. The Bowl also needs Colorado to beat Nebraska in Lincoln in order to have a Big 12 team for the other slot. A match-up of UL-L vs. Northern Illinois isn't out of the question.

  • PapaJohns.com - There's no SEC team for this bowl. Their best hope is to squeeze Troy into their game vs. a Big East also-ran.
See Also:
-- ESPN's Bowl Projections
-- Sportsline.com Bowl Projections
-- Bowl Tickets to Any Game - Stubhub

PWD

15 comments:

Mackie said...

I'd love to have a shot at the Buckeyes, my only fear would be the risk of becoming the first SEC team to lose to Ohio State. It shouldn't happen, but there's always a chance.

Anonymous said...

Can someone elaborate on why Cotton Bowl will not take UGA? That would be the game to watch and the one I would want us playing.

Anonymous said...

Anon- The Capital One picks before the Cotton, so Georgia will likely be out of the running.

Anonymous said...

How about we just let the games play out? All this speculating is like masturbation--sure it feels good and may be stimulating, but what is really accomplished?

Anonymous said...

I looked up the Ohio State bowl record. While there have not been a lot of SEC v OSU matchups, Ohio State has never beaten an SEC team in a bowl game. That is pretty remarkable. Of course there were a lot of years where Ohio State was losing in the Rose Bowl.

I did not do an in-depth regular season search although I know OSU beat LSU during my wife's freshman year at Ohio State (it was her first game as a student). I also know of a tie with LSU as well.

Anonymous said...

Iknow the BCS carryies some $$$, but I would rather play tOSU in the Cap One Bowl than Utah in the Sugar. Call me crazy, but that is another one of those no win situations like last year, even though Utah has at least won a BCS game.

Anonymous said...

I think we're a lock for Orlando vs. Ohio State or Michigan State. If we lose and Ole Miss wins, then we might go to Dallas. But I don't think so because I don't think we'll lose to Tech. I simply haven't seen or read anything to convince me that we won't score points.

I think it would be a crime if Vandy gets saddled with the Music City Bowl. At the very least send them out of town.

Anonymous said...

Hey PWD,

Do you know where the Cap One Bowl reps will be Saturday? I want to tell them how excited I would be to go. Especially if we lay an egg to Tech!

Anonymous said...

How is Ole Miss vs Texas Tech a "gross mismatch" considering Ole Miss won at UF and very nearly won at Bama. Those are currently the two top ranked teams(or two of the top three) in the country, correct? The Rebels 4 losses have come by 2, 6, 7 and 4 points, respectively. They can play with ANYBODY.

Anonymous said...

Give me BCS or Cotton...the rest are garbage. Why do I want my team to play in a bowl named after a credit card? Cotton has panache and tradition...Outback, Cap, Chick-fila do not.

Anonymous said...

I can think of about $2,500,000 reasons why the Capital One Bowl is better than the Cotton Bowl. How about you?

Anonymous said...

Anon at 5:21 p.m.:

Capital One Bowl reps are at ~10-15 games per week, usually Big 10 and SEC games (but sometimes other conferences - go figure).

If you can find a Big 10 or SEC game with a team that could be in the Capital One Bowl (e.g., the UGA-Ga Tech game), you'll find a rep.

Anonymous said...

What happens if Alabama loses this week to Auburn and then gets killed against Florida? Will the BCS pick up the pieces?

Anonymous said...

Thanks Lawdawg. What I was referring to is where in Athens will they be before the game. I think they are at all UGA home games (at least that's what someone posted a while back). I just want to say hello, and please invite us - even if we lose this game!

Anonymous said...

I'm a Buckeye with a lot of respect for the SEC. Any damn fool knows the SEC is great. I'm looking forward to maybe playing Georgia. I think we have a chance there. We've got a chance, I think, to make it close with Alabama in a low scoring game. The only problem with that is Bama's d-line. Wells would have trouble there and Pryor's passing game is still a work in progress (with some great moments). As long as we don't play Florida. Tebow is a God-send, unstoppable. I know Georgia fans don't like that, but facts are facts.

 
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