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April 24, 2009

Ole Miss Series Sketch

The big crowds in Oxford.
The Diamond Dawgs travel west this weekend for a three game set with the Ole Miss Rebels. Ole Miss (30-11, 11-7) looks a lot like Georgia in terms of their record and their stats. They've lost two cof their conference series, at LSU and against South Carolina. Their numbers are almost identical to ours, with only a couple of notable exceptions. Average, ERA, opponent's average, and fielding percentages for both teams are within a few tenths of a point. The exceptions, though, show the difference in these two teams.
Georgia has a big edge in power hitting. UGA's slugging percentage is .548, compared to .445 for the Rebs. But, the Rebs have a pitching edge. As we know, walks have been a problem for our staff this year and Ole Miss walks significantly fewer batters than UGA. They've also struck out out 44 more batters than our staff. Like most power lineups, strike outs are a problem for us and we'll need to get good at bats against one of the best staffs in the SEC. Despite those numbers, Ole Miss's collective ERA is still a bit higher than UGA's (4.02 compared to 3.89).
Ole Miss's pitchers are no joke. I've already mentioned that their Sunday starter, Scott Biddle, was an All-American reliever last year and has been fantastic since moving into a starting spot (3-0, 1.29 ERA). Biddle isn't the only solid pitcher for the Rebs. Sophomore Drew Pomeranz, who will face Holder tonight, is coming off a complete game against Florida which pushed his record to 4-1. The pitching match up that favors us the most is Saturday's as McRee faces Phillip Irwin. That's not to say Irwin is weak, because he isn't (5-3, 3.57 ERA), but McRee should be able to outpitch him. All our guys must exercise control, especially McRee. Walks have been killing us and the staff has to minimize free base runners.
The history of this series is terrifying. Georgia has one series win in Oxford, ever. It happened in 1989, twenty years ago. A realist would say we're hoping to get a single game over there. A series win would, of course be a titanic step toward the SEC crown. I'd be happy with one and Perno has said that is about as good as he can hope for.

Oh yeah, Michael Palazzone won't make the trip due to some sort of finger injury. So, we'll be one short in the pen for this weekend, too.

See Also:
-- NCAA Regional Projections (Dawgs #6 National Seed) - CBB

Quinton

11 comments:

Paul Westerdawg said...

Our stats are a freakshow:
http://secsports.com/new/sports/bbc/09stats/lgsumm.htm

#2 in batting avg.
#2 in ERA
#11 in Fielding Pct.

BTW - Poythress is #1 in avg (min 50 at bats), #1 in RBI, and #2 in HRs as of April 23rd.

Anonymous said...

GATA, Dawgs.

Paul Westerdawg said...

other weird stats:

For Hitters:
#3 in Walks
#2 in strikeouts

Is it normal to be so high in both?

Anonymous said...

Guys, a "couple of tenths" in fielding percentage is a little bigger deal than you are giving it credit for. It's not like ERA or BA.

What is the total error count for the teams?

Anonymous said...

Damn, that is huge about Palazzone. When did that injury occur? He could have closed a game for us and certainly is our best set-up man. Losing him is crucial to this series.

I really hope that this is the weekend that we finally get it going. We have been winning on smoke and mirrors a little bit lately. Not really hitting much at all and striking out a ton.

I would love to see us go NC ST on a couple of the Ole Miss kids. I really miss Johnathan Taylor and wish he could get back to the way he was playing to start the season. He is a super game-changer for us offensively. I hope we can get a game out there.

Quinton McDawg said...

Anon 3:27-
It should be five thousandths (.005). Ole Miss is at .969 and we're at .962. They only have 45 errors to our 57, but we've got about twenty more put outs. Their staff strikes out a bunch more guys. I'd give them the edge with the leather, but it's not overwhelming.

Anonymous said...

Not to nitpick, but the Red & Black had completely different reasons for Palazzone not making the trip. There the report said that he was staying at home because he was suffering from arm fatigue, not a finger problem. I'm unsure if this is a reason to be genuinely worried. One one hand, this is the point at which high school ball would be winding down and his body may not be used to the longer season. Alternatively, kids these days are used to going straight from high school to their summer league without much of a break - so I hope he did not catch the mono that McRee had earlier in the season.

Either way, I thought I would mention this.

Anonymous said...

If it is "arm fatigue," that is much, much worse than a finger issue. When you see "arm fatigue" with a pitcher, it is like a restaurant being "closed for remodeling."

The kid would have been a 1st round pick if it had not have been for elbow problems in high school. We need to keep our fingers crossed that the kid is ok.

mitch said...

Dawgs win game 1 6-3. And just a note about the florida series. The saturday and sunday games are already sold out, only friday tickets remain.

Dawgs789 said...

Good win tonight by the Diamond Dawgs.

Also, breaking news:
Stafford and Lions struck a deal.
Six-year, $41.7 million, could be worth $78 million with incentives.

Paul Westerdawg said...

Anon - 1:48 that I just deleted.

Dude....have some common sense. Don't post that on my site.

PWD

 
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