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November 16, 2009

Bowl Projections

My overall reaction to Saturday's game is one of relief mixed with joy mixed with four fingers in the air in honor of the first four game winning streak over Auburn in 61 years.

My secondary reaction is "Whew, I don't have to go to Shreveport." Northern Louisiana isn't completely off the table, but a win over the Wildcats on Saturday will push that possibility totally out of the picture.

Some of this week's Bowl Predictions are in:I think it's a mild stretch to have us in the Liberty right now against Houston since the Cougars don't even lead their division in CUSA. That distinction shockingly belongs to SMU.

The long and short of it is this. If we win out, we're going to the Outback or Chick-Fil-A Bowl. If we lose, we could end up in a variety of places from Atlanta (unlikely) to Nashville to Memphis. Personally, I think a split in the next 2 games puts us into Nashville against UNC.

Some games that would help us include LSU over ARK, Clemson over SC, and maybe UK over UT. Although, the biggest piece of the puzzle is clearly beating a very tough Georgia Tech team.

PWD

22 comments:

RedCrake said...

I wouldn't mind going against SMU although I'm not thrilled with the idea of Memphis. I did have a pretty good time the last time we played a June Jones coached team.

Mr. Sanchez said...

Who is above us? Looks like Bama and Florida are both BCS with the winner in the Championship and loser in the Sugar. So who does that leave for the Citrus, Outback, and Peach forcing us down below that? Sorry, but a win over Kentucky and I don't see who knocks us below one of those 3, and could possibly see a Citrus if the Cotton was wanting LSU badly (since the Cotton must have a SEC West team).

Anonymous said...

I think Ole Miss is still above us too.

Eric said...

There's no "must" about the Cotton taking a West team. It's just better for attendance. To play along with the Liberty scenario...

If LSU takes a Florida bowl, Ole Miss likely gets the Cotton. Even if they don't, Ole Miss is likely higher in the pecking order. If South Carolina and Tennessee both go 7-5, they could possibly go higher than us especially since that would require South Carolina to beat a reasonably hot Clemson. That would leave us in the Liberty or Music City Bowl. Honestly, I'd prefer the Liberty Bowl over any of our other likely options right now just because we'd either get a chance to remind another June Jones team that they don't belong in the same room with the big boys or play a Houston team that is much improved since we saw them last.

Anonymous said...

chick fil a is the peach bowl now

outback is the citrus bowl now

Brian said...

Naw....Outback is the Hall of Fame Bowl. Citrus Bowl was the Tangerine Bowl way back when.

DAWG said...

I'm curious my some would comment on a subject they obviously know nothing about.

Paul Westerdawg said...

Sanchez,

Citrus picks first.

Then the Outback and Cotton essentially pick at the same time. one from the East and one from the West. If either wants someone from the opposite division, they have to wait until the other one is done picking.

Then Chick-Fil-A picks.

Then Liberty and Music City pick at same time.

Then Indy

Then PapaJohns.


So...LSU and likely Ole Miss are both ahead of us in the pecking order barring a calamity ending for the Rebels. One will go Cotton and the other Citrus.

That means we're battling UT, SC, AU, UK and ARK for the Outback and Chick-Fil-A.

If we're all at 7 wins, you'd THINK they would just do it by geography and match-ups.

The Liberty would kill to have UT.

VAdawg said...

I think Chris Low's scenario makes a lot of sense. If Tennessee wins out (rather likely with Vandy and UK remaining) they will be 7-5. Assuming we finish 7-5 too, than you would have to think that the Peach Bowl (I love CFA, but I refuse to use corporate bowl names when there is a better alternative) would pick the Vols over the Dawgs. I guess the big kicker is who the Outback Bowl will pick... I kind of see them wanting to reach into the West for Ole Miss, but we shall see.

But let's not count any chickens right now; we really need to focus on UK. They are a quality team and still have plenty to play for. And while I worry about Tech, I am not convinced they are unbeatable. If we play well on offense and don't turn the ball over, I think we will have shot. The defense is a liability of course, but I think we will have learned something after last year. I would love to ruin the nerds' season...

Anonymous said...

The only teams certainly above us are Florida and Bama. LSU likely will remain above us as well, unless they meltdown. South Carolina already is behind us 2 games in the SEC, which does matter in the bowl pickings, plus they'll probably lose to Clemson. Tennessee is also behind us in SEC record. They usually do pick in order of SEC record, not just final record, so there you go.

If we beat Kentucky, and even if we lose to Tech, we should be picked in Outback or Chick-Fil-A.

Ole Miss is looking like a lock for the Cotton. Outback will want an East team, which could be us (as we would be the next highest ranked team in the SEC). Pretty much the only east team we have to worry about is UTk, but who knows, they could lose to Kentucky.

Bottom line is, we SHOULD (if we beat Kentucky) at least go to Outback or Chick-Fil-A. The Chick-Fil-A likes to get the "home" teams because it's a guaranteed sell-out, and I really doubt they'd skip over us for a lower ranked SEC team (record-wise). They did skip Vandy last year for LSU, but... that's Vandy. We aren't Vandy. We won't get skipped, especially with a better SEC record.

Anonymous said...

By the way, if you like to concentrate on the fact that bowls like to pick teams that are close-by, because they're more likely to travel, then the Outback (in Tampa, FL) would likely enjoy getting a team from Georgia or Alabama.

Anonymous said...

We can make this a lot easier by just winning this weekend and then restoring order next weekend.....

JackSpratDawg said...

I like the UGA v UNC in Nashville angle. Haven't played the Tar Heels in ages. Any chance they might make it to the Peach?

DrummerDawg said...

Honestly, I think Chris Low's picks are flawed...here's why:

1. The Cotton Bowl chooses first out of the SEC West. No way it chooses a (7-5) Arkansas that lost to Ole Miss over an (8-4) Ole Miss or a (7-5) Ole Miss. Even if Ole Miss beats both LSU and Miss. State, thereby going (9-3), they would be the best SEC team after BAMA/UF and thus probably chosen by the Capital One Bowl. But Low is assuming that LSU takes care of Ole Miss because he has the Tigers in the Capital One. Even if the Capital One still liked a 9-3 LSU over a 9-3 Ole Miss, Ole Miss still goes to the Cotton. All this to say, there is no way Arkansas ends up in the Cotton Bowl.

2. The Outback Bowl chooses from the East first if it wants, or has to wait until the Cotton makes its SEC West choice before taking a West team. Let's say Low was just mistaken about putting ARK ahead of Ole Miss, and Ole Miss goes to Cotton. Assuming that ARK beats MSU, they're a 7-5 team, unless they beat LSU. But Low predicts LSU in the Capital One Bowl, after taking care of ARK and Ole Miss; hence, you have a 7-5 UGA, a 7-5 UT, a 7-5 USC (pending they beat Clemson), and a 7-5 ARK for the Outback to choose from. No WAY does the Outback forfeit it's SEC East pick of schools that would draw bigger crowds (UGA and UT) for an Arkansas team that lost it's head-to-head at home to a team in the East with an equal record (UGA). Therefore, UT and UGA are much better choices for the Outback than ARK.

So let's say the Outback chooses the Vols because they won the head-to-head with UGA. That leaves a (7-5) UGA with a (7-5) ARK and (7-5) USC for the Chick-fil-a to choose from. Same situation, UGA will pack the house the best, and they won both head-to-heads over the remaining teams. Even if the Chick-fil-a, for whatever reason, liked USC over UGA, it's highly unlikely they'd want to rematch the Gamecocks with Clemson (the likely ACC school for the game) in back-to-back games. And why would the Chick-fil-a choose ARK over a UGA team that beat ARK and will pack the house, bringing in loads of money? All this to say, if we beat UK, the worst I think we really do is Chick-fil-a. If we beat Tech too, going 8-4, we'll be on our way to Tampa.

Sam (my actual name) said...

PS:

I like most of those match ups (not Houston though). UNC is a regional team that is coming along. The 2 oldest land grants playing each other (that is a fun argument).

FSU brings the whole Richt v Bowden angle--so we will get some coverage.

Clemson: always love playing Clemson.

SCdawg said...

i really really really do not want to play clemson.

i live 20 min. from clempson and they would beat us. they have a defense. we dont. we are about as good as them on offense but not even close on D.

i dont want to hear about this until 2013.

Hobnail_Boot said...

This is not difficult. Right Now:

BCS - Florida
BCS - Alabama
Cotton - LSU
Cap One - Ole Miss
Outback - Tennessee
CFA - Georgia
Music City - Auburn
Liberty - Arkansas
Independence - SCU
Papa Johns - Kentucky

DrummerDawg said...

Good picks, Hobnail.

Except if LSU beats Ole Miss, they'll be in the Capital One. Essentially the winner of that game is playing for the Capital One Bowl bid (pending Miss beats MSU and LSU beats ARK).

Anonymous said...

I like the UGA v UNC matchup in Nashville- sexier destination the Atl.
But UGA v Clemson... Il take anytime, anywhere

Michael said...

Assuming we beat UK, even if we lose to GA Tech we finish with the same record as everyone else in this group, but BETTER SEC records.

How does UGA then get beat out for Outback AND Peach?

Football Dude said...

Note that the Bowl contracts state that they can pick any team within 1 win of the team with the best available record. That's 1 overall win, not 1 SEC win. It doesn't state losses because the loser of the SEC Championship game would have played an additional game and thus have an additional loss.

Football Dude said...

Also note that Bowls will most often pick a team that provides a better viewing audience (TV and ticket sales) over a team that won the head to head. So even if Ole Miss beats LSU, the Capital One Bowl may pick LSU anyway.

Bowls do not like to have the same team 2 years in a row (ticket sales fall off). Given this, I'm sure the Cotton Bowl would prefer LSU over Ole Miss. However, the Cotton Bowl is at a new venue this year (Cowboys Stadium). So it wouldn't be the end of the world if Ole Miss went again.

If UT wins out and we lose to Tech, they will go to the Outback Bowl. They have the head to head win and would not have lost their last game (this does make a difference - Bowls want a team that is riding high, not one that is down in the dumps).

The Chick-fil-a Bowl is drooling over a UGA/Clemson match up. Actually, I am too. I'd much rather go to that game than see us beat up on a weak Big Ten team.

But we've got to beat Kentucky. All of this talk is for nothing if we lose to UK. Don't think it can't happen. It can. If we go back to multiple turnovers and penalties like we have the rest of the year, we have a good chance of losing. GO DAWGS!!

 
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