All of us have looked at 2011 and scratched our heads. On one hand, the schedule sets up very nicely for the Dawgs to have a season that should be much better than last year's bucket of fail. On the other, we could start out 0-2 and no number of two touchdown wins will turn some people around. I can't think of a season since 2000 that I have looked at and thought we could be anywhere from 11-1 to 5-7, and I wouldn't be surprised at any of those outcomes.
I'll get to the Boise State and South Carolina games later. On paper, we should head into Florida no worse than 5-2. I know there are those out there that think we'll lose to Mississippi State or Ole Miss, but the Rebel Bears are worse than last season and Mississippi State needed the least inspired performance (until the bowl game) out of a Georgia team since the debacle in Knoxville in 07 to win. Not to mention, State lost their Dcoordinator, three of their starting linebackers and that monster in the middle of the line that kept Georgia from doing anything on the ground.
Tennessee legitimately worries me. That isn't to say I think we'll lose to them, but they have a ton of upside potential. They also still have a younger squad than Georgia Military. That and as good (or bad) as Bray might be, he has fewer weapons than Murray. And he isn't Murray.
So we go into Florida at 5-2. Putting aside Florida, who on the back end of the schedule worries you? Auburn? Kentucky? I mean this is the SEC, but we could be a legit 9-3, either way.
I realize this is a very quick whip around the schedule, but it isn't hard to see a world that 9-3 is the very worst we could finish. Would that be enough? If one of the nine is Boise State, does that change things? How about Florida? South Carolina?
I don't say this will be dispositive. I realize we have to show up to win, but the schedule is one that a coach under pressure to put up wins has to love. Can the renewed...whatever it is...pay off?
TD
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8 comments:
South Carolina worries me the most. Then, Florida. Because they're Florida. And we lose to them. As far as "trap" games, yeah I would say Tennessee is a little scary given our recent history in Knoxville. Kentucky will be BAD this year. Their entire offense left. I could see where Ole Miss could be tricky but I have a hard time seeing how we could lose that one. And I agree with your Miss. St. assessment. I think they'll take a slight step back this year. Auburn and Tech don't worry me as much.
That is why I haven't looked at South Carolina yet. Part of me thinks they overachieved, while I know we underachieved. The other part is telling that first part that I am not being logical and need to realize, that on paper, at least, they have more experience at key positions.
Given Malzahn's track record and the history of the series, discount Auburn at your own risk.
On the back end of the schedule? Auburn. Because they're Auburn and they'll be playing Georgia and the only thing that seems to matter for that game is what happens from kickoff to 0:00 on the game clock.
I think it is hard because up until about 2007, this was an automatic 9-3/10-2 schedule at worst. But now, who knows? Like you said, 5-7 is still on the table. We lost to Colorado and UCF last year so there simply aren't many guarantees on the schedule until we tee it up and see how the players gel and coaches coach.
I guess this is the year we find out of Malzahn is a genius?
What worries me is the aftermath of an 0-2 start. If the Dawgs do drop the first two, given last season, what happens then? It is not hard to see the season spinning out of control from that point. Confidence is huge for college kids. Back-to-back L's to open the season sends all of their offseason hard work down the crapper. What the staff was selling prior to 0-2 was great, but not so much after 2 L's. So I believe the season, good or bad, will be determined by the second week.
If the DAWGS go 0-2 and the coaching staff loses the team that will be a very fine example of why they all have to go. It will be the losing, but it will also be the inability to keep the team from "spinniong out of control" - IF that's what happens.
GO DAWGS!
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