Very interesting stuff by CFBTN on Georgia's (and other contenders) chances for playing in the BCS NCG. They place Georgia at 25%, behind 'Bama's 71% and Notre Dame's 50%. Keeping in mind that basically Georgia or Alabama is a binary choice, it isn't surprising that Georgia and Alabama's % nearly equals 100.
They also break down the possible match-ups and the likelihood of that match-up. Georgia vs. Notre Dame is the second most likely match-up, at 12.56%.
v. Notre Dame - 12.56%
v. Kansas State - 4.66%
v. Oregon (as Pac-12 Champ) - 3.42%
v. Oregon (as non Pac -12 Champ) - 2.64%
v. any other team but Notre Dame, Alabama, Kansas State, or Oregon - 1.75%
Interestingly, Georgia has the highest percentage of likelihood of playing anyone random of all the teams listed.