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March 5, 2015

Updated SEC Tourney seeding scenarios for UGA

Yesterday, I laid out the general scenarios for UGA to get the double bye in the SEC basketball tournament. Last night, the first thing that needed to happen, did. LSU lost their game to Tennessee.

I wanted to give the pep band a bit more to work with in thinking about when to load up for Nashville. The outcomes are a bit more jumbled than I figured yesterday, as you'll see below

Remaining games of the four teams that are in play for positions 3, 4, 5, and 6:

Ole Miss (11-6) - Vandy (Sat, 9pm, SECNetwork)
Texas A&M (11-6) - Alabama (Sat, 2pm, ESPN3)
LSU (10-7) - @ Arkansas (Sat, 2pm, ESPN)
UGA (10-7) - @ Auburn (Sat, 4pm, SECNetwork)


  • UGA has to beat Auburn on Saturday, otherwise we finish seeded sixth
  • UGA holds head to head tiebreakers over Ole Miss and TAMU
  • At least one of Texas A&M or Ole Miss have to lose for UGA to have a shot at the bye
  • It is much less clear cut if three or more teams are tied, according to the SEC tiebreaker protocol
  • LSU holds the head to head tiebreaker over UGA
  • I don't care about other scenarios that don't involve UGA (such as Ole Miss jumping Arkansas for third place)

  • LSU playing at Arkansas is a tough game for the Tigers, though Arkansas has their short turn round road game tonight against South Carolina, then are home for an early Saturday afternoon game. Who knows about those teams playing Alabama and Vandy. Right now, I have to think Ole Miss has the tougher game, but they are playing at 9pm at home. The huge upside is that Ole Miss' Spring Break starts Saturday, so that'll keep The Tad more quiet.

    Scenarios for seeding in tournament 

    UGA has to beat Auburn Saturday afternoon and needs at least one other team to lose to finish higher than sixth. I've applied the conference's tiebreakers to the scenarios below. Head to head applies with two teams; where 3 or more teams are tied, the conference looks at win % among the tied teams. Where that has happened, I've listed the records of the tied teams under each outcome.

    Everyone but UGA loses - UGA 3rd, Ole Miss 4th, TAMU 5th, LSU 6th
    UGA 3-0
    Ole Miss  1-2
    TAMU 0-2

    LSU wins, A&M and Ole Miss loses - UGA 3rd, LSU 4th, TAMU 5th, Ole Miss 6th
    UGA 3-1
    LSU 3-2
    TAMU 2-2
    Ole Miss 1-4

    Ole Miss wins, TAMU and LSU loses - Ole Miss 3rd, UGA 4th, TAMU 5th, LSU 6th
    UGA and TAMU end up tied. UGA seeded higher by virtue of UGA's head to head win over Aggies.

    A&M wins, Ole Miss and LSU loses - TAMU 3rd, UGA 4th, Ole Miss 5th, LSU 6th
    UGA and Ole Miss end up tied. UGA seeded higher by virtue of UGA's head to head wins over Rebel Bears

    LSU and Ole Miss wins, TAMU loses - Ole Miss 3rd, LSU 4th, TAMU 5th, UGA 6th
    LSU 3-0
    TAMU 2-1
    UGA 1-1

    LSU and TAMU wins, Ole Miss loses - TAMU 3rd, LSU 4th, UGA 5th, Ole Miss 6th
    LSU 3-0
    UGA 2-1
    Ole Miss 0-4

    Clearly, if Ole Miss and TAMU win, UGA cannot finish higher than 5th, depending on LSU's game. If everyone wins, UGA still finishes up 6th.



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