WAY premature NIT talk...

Putting aside my disgust anger resentment over us getting excited about the NIT, I felt it important to answer Kyle King's question: Are Mark Fox's Georgia Bulldgogs Bound for a Bid to the NIT?

In the spirit and recognition of his ability to turn a phrase from five words to fifty, here is a little 700 word response....

Georgia will make the NIT if one of two things happen:

First...let's get the easiest to figure and least likely to happen out of the way. Georgia has to finish one game ahead of Florida. At 9-1, the Gators are three games ahead of Georgia, with a 2-0 head to head record. Currently, Kentucky, Ole Miss and Alabama are in front of the Dawgs. We are tied with Missouri, and the Tigers possess the tie breaker with the head to head win. Unless something crazy happens, Georgia just about has to win out and hope Florida loses four more games.

That gives the Dawgs the regular season championship that would give them an automatic NIT bid. As an aside, the language in the selection criteria makes it very clear that tie breakers come into play, so the Dawgs would have to finish one game ahead of Missouri and Kentucky, as the Wildcats' win over Florida gives them an advantage due to the SEC tiebreaker procedures.

In other words, that is a very tough row to hoe.

Second...Georgia continues to win the games they should, plus sneaks up on someone to get a signature win. The NIT selection committee faces much less public scrutiny than the NCAA selection committee. That is a double edged sword for a major conference team that currently sports four sub-150 RPI losses and one sub-250 RPI loss. Staying above .500 is the least of Georgia's worries, as far as the NIT goes.

Looking at past year's brackets, there is an emerging pattern of selection for major conference teams. The teams almost always have a sub-90 RPI. They usually have at least four quality wins. They all finished with at least 18 wins (the only team to go with 17 wins was last year's Iowa squad that was 17-16, but had four top-50 RPI wins against only two 'bad' losses).

Based on that, Georgia must go 6-2 from here on out. That isn't as impossible a task as I thought it would be just two weeks ago. The hard part is getting the two more quality wins, assuming the two Texas A&M wins can be counted as quality at the end of the season. We face Kentucky and Ole Miss. We face Alabama twice. We face Arkansas. To get to those six wins, we'll have to win three of those five games. No matter how you slice it, one of those wins will be on the road, something the selection committees might factor in, if it is a close call.

At 18-13 (12-6), Georgia would hold a mid-70s RPI. If we pull that off? We'll not only go, but likely host a game as a four seed.

Let's look at the reality scenario last. Let say we win the three games we are looking more and more likely to win: South Carolina and Tennessee at home and Vandy on the road. Plus, we win our home game against Alabama Tuesday night. That puts us at 16-15 (10-8) and a mid-90s RPI to end the regular season. I think we'd be a very hard pick into the NIT with those numbers, absent a deep run in the SEC tournament that gives the Dawgs another quality win or two. No way we get in without at least playing in the SEC Championship game and getting two quality wins during the tournament.

Put up a road win over Ole Miss or win the home game over Kentucky, then your chances go up exponentially. You get the double pop of winning a quality game and another late season win over an NCAA team.  However, even with one of those wins, you are still, at best, on the NIT bubble, if there is such a thing.

As it stands, I'll keep looking at this thing one game at a time. We dug a very deep hole the first two months of the season. We might have found a way to build a ladder, but we still have some building to do if we are to get out of it by March.

TD

See also:
- NIT Bracketology, Big Apple Buckets
Currently has Alabama and Arkansas as 2 seeds, Texas A&M as a 3 seed, and Tennessee as an 8 seed

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Dear Bama fans

I know you're pissed about being left out. But don't point your anger this way. And honestly...why get mad at UAB? Your anger should be pointed at Anthony Grant. How did he not have you ready to play in Puerto Rico? The loss to 11 win Iowa probably cost you 15 RPI points, and the loss to St. Peter's probably cost you another 10-15 RPI spots.

It just goes to show you. St. Peter doesn't just guard the entrance to the Pearly Gates. He also watches over Bracketville.

PWD

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We're In!

For only the second time in the past 9 seasons, Georgia fans were able to watch the March Madness selection show with genuine intrigue. Personally, I felt like we had about 40-50% chance of getting into the Dance with the most likely destination being Dayton.

Mostly, because I felt the tourney committee would look at Bama's resume and say "No way they belong." And keep us out of the tourney along with Bama to justify the Tide being omitted.

Not only did we make it in a as a 10 seed...but we're one of the higher rated 10 seeds if proximity to home has any bearing on the situation.

That said. We're in. Now, we have to prove that we belong. I like our chances in Round 1. The match-up in Round 2 is obviously brutal, and the ticket situation will be one of the toughest of any location. But remember...all the Duke fans holding tickets are pulling for us.

More thoughts later. Last night was mainly spent walking around in a daze.

Oh...and Dear Coach Fox...all is forgiven on the Bama implosion. We're in and that's all that matters. Even if we had beaten Bama, our chances in this tourney wouldn't be dramatically better as an 8 or 9 seed.

See Also:
-- Drama ends with NCAA birth - Macon.com
-- UGA to face Washington - ABH
-- The Matchup - Seattle Times
-- Scouting UGA - Tacoma News


PWD

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Victory and Bubble Watching

Good solid win by the Georgia Bulldogs today. Some stats of interest from the box score:

• Assists/Turnovers - Only 7 turnovers to 13 assists. It's tough to lose with numbers like that. In fact, any game where Gerald Robinson has 6 assists and 1 turnover is a good game.
  
• Rebounding - Georgia out rebounded Auburn 36 to 22. I actually counted three separate offensive rebounds off Georgia free throws.
  
• Minutes Played - The minute totals look a little high for such a blowout with Trey, Dustin, Travis and Gerald all cracking the 31 minute mark. However, it's helpful to remember that the last 10 minutes of that game were played at a pretty mellow pace. We're about as fresh as we can be given our situation. Price should be particularly fresh given his foul troubles and only 22 minutes played.
  
• Free Throws - I love that we got to the line enough to shoot 31 free throws, but we can't leave 9 points in miss freebies at the line against better teams. 71% isn't awful, but it's not good enough.

As for the bubble watch...it looks like Colorado is likely in the tourney after their big upset of Kansas State today. At this point, we need them to win as many as possible. Their RPI was 67th before their win against KSU (RPI: 18) That may be enough to get them into the dance. If they could some how pull off a miracle tomorrow against Kansas, I think we'd have another Top 50 RPI win on the books from our home game against the Buffs earlier in the season. Unlikely, but...

Around the nation, some games that would help us out:

• Michigan State vs. Iowa - At the half, they were only up by 2 at the half over a rancid Iowa team. A loss would soften the bubble for us and knock Sparty out of the bracket.
  
• Virginia Tech vs. GT - a part of me hopes GT wins to knock Va Tech out of the dance and to prolong their nightmare with Hewitt. Either way, UGA wins.
  
• Washington State vs. Washington - Lunardi has WSU on the bubble while Jerry Palm doesn't. A WSU win over UW would put pressure on the bubble for us.
  
• Clemson vs. Boston College (tomorrow) - I feel like BC is already in the tourney. Both Lunardi and Palm have Clemson as a 12 seed as of this morning. With an RPI around 61, a loss to BC should get them off our bubble. A win could be a problem for us.

Don't get me wrong. I want to win tomorrow vs. Bama and end all doubt. But I'm not sure what we're in without some help if we lose to the Tide.

Simple answer -- keep winning.

PWD

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Cinderella is a Bracket Busting Skank

Cinderella is a very dirty girl. She has taken her naughty ways into my life and soiled my bracket. She didn't so much as place a note on the night stand before leaving me a broken man.

It's one thing to let Davidson, Villanova and Western Kentucky advance to the Round of 32, but it's an entirely different deal to have them knock one of my Final Four teams to the curb so very, very early. Damn you Dell Curry's son.

I have only been correct on 32 of 48 picks in the Yahoo Pick 'Em. That puts my prognostication skills -- which are far inferior to my procrastination talents -- at the lowly 59th percentile on YahooSports. There are Cricket fans in India with better brackets.

Sigh.

At least UCLA is still alive. Thank you Ben Howland. Thank you for sending Cinderella back to her step-sisters to mop and sew their dresses. Without your belief in the Big Guy advancing, I would be hopeless.

Ben Howland...you are a great American. And Cinderella...we had good times. But please, keep your clinic visiting body away from the Bruins. Please.

See Also:
-- Afternoon Madness - DeadSpin

PWD


(image: CostumeShop.com. Also, this site does not condone the belief that the hotty in the pic above is anything other than a woman of extreme virtue.)

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Odds of Developing a Perfect NCAA Basketball Bracket?

So how sure are you of your office pool picks? Are you convinced you have the perfect bracket? Every year, the question is asked, "What are the odds of selecting all the teams in the NCAA Tournament Pool correctly?"

Well, there are two ways to calculate that. The first is to assume that all teams are equal in quality, and develop a random bracket generator to get you the right answer. In that case, the odds of correctly selecting the perfect bracket is 1 in 9.2 quintillion. Or said differently "one in nine million trillion." (Yes. I wrote that right)

In terms of decimal points, it looks like this:
One in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808

The other way to do it. You could somehow weight each team based on the historical odds that a team of that seeding would advance. For instance:

• The #16 seed has never beaten a #1 seed
  
• The #2 seed has only lost four times to the #15 seed. And no #15 seed has ever won a second round game.
  
• The #14 seed has beaten the #3 seed fifteen times, but the #14 seed has only advanced to the Sweet 16 twice. The Sweet 16 stat here is interesting because UGA is a 14 seed and because the UT-Chattanooga team that did it knocked UGA out of the tournament in Tubby's second year.

I have no idea how a weighted formula would work, but I've seen projections that this is still a probability in the hundreds of millions.

In case you are wondering, no major bracket selection web site (which process MILLIONS of brackets per year) has ever processed a perfect bracket. That includes Yahoo, ESPN and Sportsline. That's according to the WSJ (link in last sentence) and PBS.

PWD

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Beyond Imagination

After the dismissals of Takais Brown and Mike Mercer, I felt like this probably wasn't an NCAA Tourney team. However, I did feel like the team needed to show progress in order to maintain any sort of momentum. The NIT seemed like a manageable goal, and not making any sort of post-season this far into a coach's tenure is pretty unthinkable.

To have a season come so completely unglued during January and February was very tough to watch. The hardest thing about watching the problems were that they were the same old problems over and over.

To Felton's enormous credit, he never lost the team. With the exception of the Florida game, they gave solid effort consistently. They had no idea how to finish a game or score points consistently, but the effort was pretty consistent.

What Felton managed to do over the past four days can't be understated. The single biggest thing that he "fixed" at the SEC Tournament was Finishing the Drill. If you're going to "repair" anything at the 11th hour, that's a good thing to focus on.

We didn't blow our opportunities for success when faced with adversity. Some of that is young players like Woodbury, Jackson and Swansey growing up. Some of it is enormously lucky breaks (like not playing UK in front of 20,000 Cat fans at the Dome), and some of it was just a massive case of "The Want Its" by Gaines, Bliss and others.

Whatever the reason, the 2008 Georgia Bulldogs are SEC Tournament Champions after completing their stunning victory over the Arkansas Razorbacks, and the goal of sport is to win championships. The goal isn't to have a pretty offense, wear the right colors or be warm and fuzzy. The goal is to win titles.

Now...that said....if you're not winning titles, you can make your life a hell of a lot easier by doing those other things a little more. But that's neither here nor there.

I thought earlier in the season that the team had the potential to win seven or eight SEC games. Well...they did. They just went about it in the most difficult way imaginable.

This is by far the most significant title that the Dawgs have won since 1990. The Sweet 16 isn't a championship, and an SEC East Co-Divisional Title doesn't hold a candle to a tourney title.


Official T-Shirt Logo (Click to Buy)

Damon Evans has already said that Dennis Felton will be back next year. The amount of the pay raise and the length of the extension will logically be driven based on how far the team goes from here. If I were guessing right now, I'd say Felton probably bought himself a $100k-140k a year pay raise and a two year contract extension.

Two additional years would bring his total to five years remaining on his deal, and it would essentially guarantee him two more years with much less pressure from the administration. It's an extension and pay raise well deserved.

There are absolutely things that need to be addressed in the off season in terms of talent gaps and offensive scheme issues. However, even an offense that is badly flawed can still look pretty solid with better players, and nothing helps bring in talent like titles.

Great opportunities are right in front of Felton. He just has to find a way to continue taking advantage of them as he did over the past four days.

See Also:
-- Bulldogs Hold Off Razorbacks - AP
-- Photos from the Game - AJC
-- Photos from the game - AP
-- Winning their way In - AJC
-- Finally Secure - AJC
-- Believe It! - ABH
-- Day Not Soon Forgotten - ABH

Merchandise and Premium Tickets:
-- SEC Tournament Championship T-Shirts - Red
-- Premium NCAA Tickets in Washington DC for UGA's Games - Stuhub

PWD

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Tickets Available for March Madness

If you're looking to attend this year's March Madness in person, the Georgia Sports Blog's Stubhub.com affiliate site can help.

Stubhub.com has a cool interactive bracket which lets you see the teams in each bracket and location. From there you can quickly click, research and buy the tickets you're most interested in.

If you're thinking about a trip to Lexington, New Orleans, Chicago, Winston-Salem or any other Tournament site, you can buy or sell the tickets quickly from Stubhub.

They also have tickets for the Final Four in Atlanta. And all Stubhub.com purchases have the FanProtect Guarantee.

PWD

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NITology and Georgia's post-season situation

Image: Georgiadogs.com

The Gators blew us clean out of the water last night. We were down a mind blowing 31-6 with 8:30 left in the first half. If you're looking for a brightside to such a tremendous thrashing, there isn't one. They are just dramatically better than us. Whey they're on their game and playing up to their ability, they can beat anyone in the country by double digits.

So, where does that leave us. NIT bound obviously.

Someone on a bulldog message board compared the NIT to the Music City Bowl. That's a pretty fair comparison. It's not a big traditionally exciting bowl destination, but it's a post-season chance to gain momentum for next year. And, there's nothing this program needs more than momentum.

NITology has us as a 4 seed. Their bracket shows us hosting vs. Iowa in Round 1. Other options for Round 1 include:

Appy State
Depaul
Providence
UMass
Utah State
Washington

Five of those seven (including Iowa) would make for compelling match-ups. Hopefully, folks will come out and support the Dawgs. NIT first round games are Tuesday and Wednesday. I'm guessing that the tickets will be sold general admission first come first serve. But that's just a hunch based on the turn around from the Selection Show til tipoff.

PWD

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Dawgs Win vs. Auburn

Image: Georgiadogs.com

Georgia beat Auburn 80-65 and advanced to faced the Gators tonight at 7:30 pm in the SEC Tournament. A win (an *obvious* long shot) vs. the Gators would put the Dawgs into the NCAA bubble discussion.

As of late tonight, our RPI is back up to 58th. We jumped about 8 spots with the win over Auburn (RPI around 100). A win over the Top 10 RPI Gator squad would probably launch us into the 45 or higher range.

The win at the SEC Tourney was the first for Georgia since Levi Stukes' freshman year in which he hit eight 3 pointers to beat Auburn. Prior to that, Georgia hadn't won an SEC Tourney game since (from memory) Tubby's first year. NOTE: I can't find my media guide to confirm that...if anyone has an update post it in the comments. I know Harrick never won an SEC Tourney game. Sure that's pathetic, but I don't think UT has won more than 1 or 2 tournament games in the past 10 years.

Anyway....Stukes had 6 threes in this one to lead all scorers with 22 points. Takais Brown added 19 points and 13 rebounds. See the box score for more details.

More articles later.

PWD

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NITology -- The Other Bubble's Expert Weighs in on Georgia

As March Madness continues to draw closer, fans around the country eagerly await the latest projections from the "Bracketologists." Guys like Jerry Palm and Joe Lunardi give rabid basketball fans a look into the possibilities of where their team is or isn't headed coming tourney time.

But they aren't the only bracketologists just as the NCAA Tourney isn't the only bracket. There is, of course, the NIT (aka March Sadness). NITology.com's Mike Scullin keeps fans in the loop regarding "the other side of the bubble."

2007 marks Scullin's third year as a bracketologist. Last year, he nailed 38 of 40 NIT teams (95%). The Georgia Sports Blog talked with him about his latest projections that have the Bulldogs as a 3 Seed in the NIT.
- - - - - - - - -
Paul Westerdawg (PWD): Are you expecting any surprises this year with the NIT?
Mike Scullin (MS): We've already had surprises. There are currently five teams that have likely qualified for the NIT with automatic bids (Wright St., South Alabama, East Tennessee State, Marist and Austin Peay). You're going to see the best list of teams in history to be left out of the NIT this year. Big schools like UConn, Nebraska, Cal, South Carolina and Oklahoma are all at risk of being pushed out of the tournament. (Update: Wright St. is no longer an NIT at-large team. Mike has taken them off his bracket)

(PWD NOTE: Here's the ruling on Automatic Bids for the NIT:

"The regular-season champion of any NCAA Division I conference (as determined by the conference's tie-break protocol) not otherwise selected to the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Championship will secure an automatic qualification to the National Invitation Tournament."

PWD: Why did they go from 40 teams last year to 32 this year?
MS: I think they wanted to create a more clearly defined tournament. Last year's play-in round where certain teams got a bye created confusion for fans. Personally, I would've gone from 40 to 64 teams instead of 40 to 32. There's going to be a big squeeze for NIT slots this year, and I wouldn't be suprised to see them change it back to a larger pool next year.

PWD: In the past, they didn't really have a seeded bracket in the NIT. Aren't the seedings new?
MS: Yes. Last year, was the first time that they had a selection committee who seeded the teams. In the past, it was a bracket designed to collect money rather than support a system of fairness. Now, it's much more fair. They have a selection committee now just like the NCAA tourney.

PWD: I noticed a regional component to the seeding process. What do you make of that?
MS: Once the seeds are determined, they look for geographically favorable match-ups within the seeds. They seed the 1s first, then they pair them up with the best geographic 8 seeds. Then they seed the 2s and 7 seeds. And so on.

(We could end up with Michigan in Round 2. Image: MZone)

PWD: Who do you have Georgia playing in Round 1?
MS: Georgia vs. Missouri in Athens would be my guess.

PWD: If Georgia beats Auburn and loses to UF, do you think we can move up from a 3 seed?
MS: They might move up to a #2 or #1 seed. Georgia is right there with Kansas State and Bradley.

PWD: What kind of traffic does the site pull?
MS: Alot of traffic comes from message boards. Mostly, it's fans from message boards belonging to teams that I project into the NIT. I've been getting a lot of email lately from Auburn fans. They're in with the last spot right now so I hope they'll be happy.

PWD: Do you get hate mail?
MS: The hate mail is pretty straight forward. Usually it's just "You're an idiot." Obviously, people reading my site would rather be in the NCAA brackets.

PWD: How do you think your projections will do this year?
MS: It's not as cut and dried at the bottom of the field this year. There are six or seven NIT bubble teams. I doubt that I'll get 95% right again this year.

PWD: Thanks for your time. Hopefully, Georgia will win its first two SEC Tourney games so I can start thinking about the NCAA bracket sites again. I mean that in a nice way.

See Also:

-- NIT - official site
-- 2007 NIT Projections - NITOLOGY.com
-- NIT moves from 40 to 32 teams - NIT.org
-- NIT selection committee -- NIT.org
-- Dave Odom is Basketball's Crash Davis - GSB
-- Forecasting the OTHER Tourney - Deadspin

PWD

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Tickets Available for SEC Tourney

There are a variety of good seats left for the SEC Tournament from Stubhub.com. If you're looking to buy or sell tickets, our Stubhub.com affiliate can help.

Currently there are seats available for:

Session 1 (Thursday - Two Afternoon Games)
Session 2 (Thursday - Two Games including UGA vs. Auburn)
Session 3 (Friday - Two Afternoon Games)
Session 4 (Friday - Two Evening Games)
Session 5 (Saturday -- Both Semifinal Games)
Session 6 (Sunday -- Finals)

You can also buy entire SEC tournament ticket books which include all sessions. All games are at the Georgia Dome.

See Also:
-- NCAA Basketball Tournament Tickets - Interactive Bracket
-- Final Four Tickets -- Stubhub.com

PWD

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Hoop Thoughts: If you're looking for Hope

"Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things,
and no good thing ever dies."
Andy Dufresne (Shawshank Redemption)
The Georgia Bulldogs fell to the Vols at home in basketball bursting our NCAA bubble almost completely. With a relevant record of 16-12 and an RPI of around 63, things are very bleak.

(Preface: I screwed up reading the seedings. We're playing Auburn in the first round. Not Alabama)

Next week at the SEC Tourney, we're the East 5 seed. The official bracket shows Georgia tipping off vs. Alabama Auburn at 7:30 pm in the Georgia Dome. The last time the two teams played Georgia ran out to a 20+ point lead in the first half before collapsing and losing on a controversial last second shot by Ronald Steele. Ughhh...we beat Auburn when we played them.

(Image: georgiadogs.com)

PollyAnnaDawg Says:
Let's find the silver lining. We drew the toughest path possible to the SEC Tourney Championship. Our path likely would look like this on the best case scenario:

Thursday vs. Alabama Auburn
Friday vs. UF (Top 10 RPI)
Saturday vs. UT (Top 10 RPI) most likely given the bracket)
Sunday vs. UK or Vandy (Most likely)

How is that a good thing? Well, if Georgia beat the first three teams, they could still lose the finals and make the tourney. Our tourney resume in that case would be:

19 RPI wins
11-9 SEC record
5 wins vs. the RPI Top 50
3 wins vs the RPI 15
Road/Neutral Record of 7-9

So...if you're looking for Hope. There it is. Will it happen? Right now, I feel more like Ellis Boyd 'Red' Redding than Mr. Dufresne.

See Also:
-- SEC Tourney Official Site - SECSports.com
-- Pop goes the Bubble - ABH
-- Lofton breaks lose late - AJC
-- Photo Gallery from Sat. - Georgiadogs.com

PWD

(sorry about the confusion. It's definitely Auburn in Round 1. Not Alabama)

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UGA RPI Factoid

By Sunday, Georgia will have played the current RPI Top 11 a total of 7 times.

-- #5 Wisconsin (home) - L
-- #7 Tennessee (away/home) - L/TBD
-- #10 UF (home/away) - L/L
-- #11 UK (home/away) - W/TBD

The SEC East's RPI is ridiculous. Especially when you add in Vanderbilt's #29 RPI (W/L).

PWD

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Men's and Women's hoops on the cusp of ideal SEC seeding scenarios

Today, the Lady Dogs beat Arkansas and Vandy lost to UT. The two events converged to give Andy Landers' squad an exceptional bracket path in the Women's SEC Tourney. The seeding is:

1. Tennessee
2. Georgia
3. Vandy
4. LSU

That means that Landers can avoid his personal Scylla and Charybdis (UT and LSU) until Sunday. (Note: The women's tourney doesn't recognize East/West divisions).

SEC Men's Bracket
On the men's side, Vanderbilt beat Kentucky today to give the Dores inside track at the #2 seed in the SEC East. Georgia is now locked in a three way tie with UK and UT for third place in the East, and we play both of them in the next two games. UK has UGA (home) and UF (road) while UT finishes their season with UF (home) and UGA (road).

Here are some of our more likely scenarios (there are others):

-- Beat both. Secure the 3 seed. Make the NCAA tourney with wiggle room to spare. Avoid UF til Saturday. Likely avoid UK all together or until Sunday.

-- Beat either. Likely secure the East's 4 seed. Most likely make the NCAA tourney. Avoid UF or UK til Sunday at the Dome. Have our best chance in 10+ years to make it to Saturday or beyond in the tourney. In other words, we can actually play the SEC tourney for NCAA seeding.

-- Beat neither. Weep openly. Take the 5 seed. Miss the NCAA tourney. Catch a blistering beat down on Friday (if we make it that far) in the SEC tourney vs. the Gators.

So there's that.

PWD

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Bubblicious March Madness News

Image: Georgiadogs.com

Georgia obviously isn't alone on the NCAA bubble. Two dozen or so teams entered today vying for about 8 to 10 slots at the bottom of the pile of at-large bids. Saturday ended with things going about as well as they possibly could've gone for the Bulldogs.

Our RPI is now up to 52. We were down to 59th pre-game.

Some teams we wanted to lose that did (new RPI as of 10:00 pm Sat.):

-- Alabama (40) 6-8 in SEC
-- Clemson (44) 5-9 in ACC
-- Oklahoma State (48) 5-8 in Big 12
-- Georgia Tech (50) 6-8 in ACC
-- Mississippi (66) 7-7 in SEC
-- Arkansas (62) 5-9 in SEC
-- Mississippi State (67) 7-7 in SEC

Teams we wanted to lose that didn't (new RPI):

-- Tennessee (11) 8-6 in SEC
-- Illinois (30) 9-6 in Big 10 (now a tourney lock)
-- Purdue (42) 7-7 in Big 10
-- Texas Tech (43) 7-7 in Big 12
-- Florida State (45) 6-9 in ACC (pretty much out)
-- San Diego State (47) 9-5 in MWC
-- Syracuse (53) 9-5 in Big East
-- Michigan (55) 7-7 in Big 10
-- Kansas St (58) 9-5 in Big 12

It looks like Southern Cal is probably going to move up after their game with Cal. We need to 9-7 in the SEC, and around 48 in the RPIs. A win over UK (RPI 7) or UT (RPI 11) would get us both of those things.

The above teams don't constitute a complete listing of all bubble teams, but they are some of the higher profile options. Looking at the above teams and their remaining games, I like our chances better than everyone listed above except UT (their RPI is so I high they might get in at 8-8), Illinois (now a lock), Purdue, Texas Tech and Syracuse.

PWD

All Stats from RealtimeRPI as of 10:00 pm Sat.

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About Last Night (hoops)

I really don't think that anything has changed regarding our tourney situation. Well...perception and statistical probability has changed, but not the requirement for success.

We needed to go 9-7 in the SEC to make the big dance before last night's game. I still believe that we need to go 9-7. It's just going to be that much harder to get 9 wins when we'll have to pick up two against:

-- MSU (Winners of 5 of their past 6. Battling for 1st in the West)
-- UK (Senior night in Rupp Arena)
-- UT (Both teams will need that game. At least it's at home)

Beating UK (RPI: 8) or UT (RPI: 14) would likely boost our RPI enough to get us into the tourney. Asking me if I think we will or won't is an entirely different question than asking me "Do you think 9 wins gets us in?"

Is Nine the Magic Number?:
Since 1999, only 1 SEC team has missed the NCAA tourney with a 9-7 record. In that time frame, only one SEC team with a 7-9 record made it.

Research by Graffy on the UGASports.com b-ball message board.

2006 - UK got in at 9-7. Their RPI was 41 and SOS was 15.

2005 - MSU got in at 9-7. Their RPI was 31 and SOS was 60.

2004 - Vandy, SC, and Bama all got in at 8-8. With RPIs of 26, 27 and 45.

2003 - Very weird year. UGA of course pulled out at 11-5. UT didn't make it at 9-7 with an RPI of 60, while Auburn (RPI 36) and LSU (RPI 39) made it at 8-8 and Bama (RPI 38) made it at 7-9.

2002 - Ole Miss made it at 9-7. Their RPI was 44 SOS was 62.

2001 - UGA made it at 9-7. and an RPI of 27. And UT made it at 8-8 with an RPI of 14.

2000 - Auburn made it at 9-7 with an RPI of 22 even with Arkansas winning the SECT at 7-9.

1999 - Arkansas made it at 9-7 with and RPI of 28 and Ole Miss made it at 8-8 with an RPI of 51.

In other words, history suggests that Georgia should/will make the NCAA tourney with a 9-7 record and a Top 15 Strength of Schedule. However, what it takes to get there and actually getting there are two wildly different things.

ht - thedogfather

PWD

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Hoops: Scoreboard Watching and Bracketology

Scoreboard Watching Tonight:
-- Arkansas at Auburn: An Auburn win keeps them comfortably ahead of LSU for 5th place in the SEC East. We're more likely to end up 4th East than 3rd in my opinion. I'd rather not play LSU in Round 1 of the SEC Tourney. An Auburn win keeps LSU firmly in 6th place. An Arkansas win protects one of Georgia's few RPI Top 50 wins. Damned if you do. Damned if you don't.

-- Vandy at MSU: Vandy has a one game lead on Georgia in the SEC standings. A loss helps our chances of moving up, and their RPI is strong enough to not fall out of the Top 50 with a win. Go Bizarro Dogs.

-- Alabama at Tennessee: The Vols are one one game behind Georgia in the standings. A loss drops them to 6-7 and it makes their level of difficulty in making the tourney rise dramatically with games remaining vs. Florida, at Arkansas and at Georgia. Roll Tide.

-- South Carolina at Florida: No impact on us.

-- Wake Forest at Georgia Tech: Go Deacs. GT is 5-7 in the ACC. A home loss to Wake is unlikely, but it would be near terminal for their NCAA hopes. Tech has games remaining against UVA (road), UNC (home) and BC (Home). We're sharing space on the bubble with the nerds currently.

-- Duke at Clemson (Thursday): The Tigers are another team sharing space on our bubble. Go Dookies. CU has games remaining against BC (away), VT (away) and Miami (home). Obviously, I'm not going to tell you to pull for the Tigers.

-- Purdue at Iowa: The Boilermakers are listed on tonight's ESPN bracketology as the last team in. A loss at Iowa might be enough to push them out. (Bracket dated today before tipoff of tonight's games). Go Hawkeyes.

-- Michigan at Illinois: The Hoopin' Zookers are listed a bit below us on ESPN's Bracketology. We need them to drop to Wolverines.

See Also:
-- Top 25 Scoreboard - ESPN
-- Tony Barnhart's Bracket - AJC (as of this morning)
-- Sportsline's Latest Bracket - Sportsline (we're an 11 seed?)
-- Bracketology from ESPN

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Georgia RPI Notes

From UGA's SID

RPI notes of interest...
-- Of the four remaining opponents on the Georgia schedule, only Kentucky (7) and Tennessee (12) have higher RPI ratings than the Bulldogs. The highest current RPI of any team that Georgia has beaten is 7 by Kentucky. The next highest? 44 by Vanderbilt. Conversely, the lowest current RPI of any team that has beaten Georgia is the 93 by Western Kentucky. Other RIPs of note include the lowly 69 by Gonzaga, despite an 18-9 record.

-- In the RPI vernacular, Georgia has but a 15-9 record because Valdosta State is an NCAA Division II school. RPI ratings consider only games against Division I opponents. Consequently, Georgia’s 15 wins are the fewest among all of the teams in the RPI’s top 55. Three other teams in that top 55 group have more losses than Georgia: #41 Texas Tech, #30 Bradley and #42 Arkansas, all with 10 losses.

-- Other Georgia teams to have earned at-large NCAA Tournament berths include:

2000-01 (RPI of 27)
2001-02 (RPI of 18)
1996-97 (RPI of 19)
1995-96 (RPI of 33)

-- Notable Georgia teams that did NOT make the NCAAs included:

2003-04 (RPI of 48) 6-10 in the SEC
1994-95 (RPI of 64)
1997-98 (RPI of 54)

Georgia’s highest-ever end-of-season RPI came in the truncated year of 2003, when the Bulldogs finished with an RPI of 5...The RPI is available only as far back as 1994.

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Dawgs beat Kennesaw State. Latest Bracketology

Georgia escaped the KSU game with a 75-66 win. In the wake of Mercer's injury and dealing with a midseason non-conference game, the Dawgs played like you would expect in many ways....too close for comfort. KSU was lead by Ronell Wooten's 25 points. Given Wooten's size, I'd wager that he would've been covered by Mercer.

From the box score, one gigantic thing stands out...Georgia shot 17 of 19 from the free throw line. That sort of activity and accuracy at the line may help offset some other losses with Mercer out.

(Image: Georgiadogs.com)

When the Dawgs were down by 8 midway through the second half, Takais Brown (16 points) and Sundiata Gaines (15 points) stepped up big. Survive and advance. No matter how ugly.

Bracketology:
-- ESPN updated their bracket tonight before our game with KSU was over. We're down to a 12 seed, and we're listed as the last team in the tourney. Ironically, this projection puts us as against #5 Southern Illinois in Spokane. The Bulldogs' last tourney game was against SIU when we were the 3 seed, and they were the 11 seed in Round 2 (Chicago).

-- Alabama was up by at least 14 in Gainesville tonight, but they still ended up losing by nine. Before the UF game, ESPN projected Bama as another of the last 4 in the tourney. Their loss probably helps Georgia marginally.

-- Arkansas was on the harsh side of the bubble pre-game tonight, and they were blown out by lowly Mississippi State.

-- Vandy was a projected 8 seed pre-game before they beat the Gamecocks tonight. Their case is that much stronger tonight.

-- Ole Miss continues to claw its way towards the Bubble. They are now in sole possession of first place in the SEC West after their one point win over LSU.

Next for Georgia:
-- Auburn at home at 4:00 pm. No TV as far as I know. Its another must win game for UGA. Tickets remain for the game.

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