This is what happens to people who read this post
Well...it all depends on what outcome you want. For starters, here's the complete BCS Standings as a refresher. Also - remember the Big East has no "host" BCS bowl. Don't read it standing up with your knees locked or you'll end up like the dude in the picture.
Let's start with the national title game scenario:
- 1. Oklahoma must beat Missouri
2. Pitt must beat WVU (and monkeys will fly out of my rectum)
3. LSU losing to UT would help us avoid being jumped
4. Virginia Tech losing to Boston College would also be nice
5. Southern Cal losing to UCLA would be nice
6. Kansas' Mark Mangino confessing to cannibalism or saying something really racist would also be nice. Something that would turn some voters against him.
Just six small steps away from a stone cold lock national title game appearance. Book travel now! (Or obviously not.)
- 1. Oklahoma must beat Missouri or Pitt beats WVU
2. The Rose Bowl must select UGA over Illinois to replace OSU
Nice to haves in this scenario:
1. Tennessee beats LSU
2. Arizona State beats Arizona
3. Hawaii beats Washington
4. Boston College beats Virginia Tech
5. Oregon beats Oregon State
The five "nice to haves" might ensure that Illinois doesn't move up one more spot and become BCS eligible. If they're ineligible, then the Rose can't select them.
- 1. OU beats Missouri *or* WVU beats Pitt
2. The Rose picks Illinois over UGA to replace OSU
3. The Orange picks UGA over Kansas.
Scenario B (easier way):
1. Missouri wins *and* WVU wins
2. Fiesta picks Kansas to replace Missouri.
3. Orange picks UGA with first true at-large
There's no rocket science in this one. The Orange Bowl would simply have to pick us over Kansas. The only reason it would be nice for Mizzou or West Virginia to lose is it would further lock up our automatic qualifier status. There's no "nice to haves" in this one. The Orange Bowl, SEC, ACC, UGA and VT are all comfortable with a rematch between the Dawgs and Hokies. Why wouldn't they be? If both Missouri and WVU win, the scenario is the even simpler. We also need KU to stay at #5 so the Orange doesn't get tempted with the idea of picking the Gators.
- Preface: It's unlikely that the Fiesta would select UGA over Kansas with their first pick if given the choice. To get to the Fiesta would require...
1. OU beats Missouri
2. The Rose selects Illinois over UGA to replace OSU
3. The Orange Bowl selects Kansas over UGA
4. The Fiesta has to select UGA (or Hawaii and no one wants them)
The problem with this scenario. There's nothing to really pull for. It happens if it happens. If Missouri beats OU, the Fiesta will definitely take Kansas #1 and the Orange will pretty much have to take us. So I guess if you want a shot at the Fiesta (and why would you given that we'll be in Arizona on Sept. 20th anyway), pull for OU.
- This one is simple, but it's not going to happen.
1. Pitt beats WVU
2. Missouri beats Oklahoma
3. The Rose selects Illinois over UGA to replace OSU
4. The Fiesta selects Kansas to replace Missouri
5. The Orange picks WVU over UGA
6. The Fiesta has to pick UGA as an automatic qualifier (or Hawaii)
Again...nothing to really pull for because we're hoping we get picked over for bowls. That's no way to live.
- Preface: This one is a major reach.
1. OU beats Missouri (notice a theme yet?)
2. Pitt beats WVU
3. VT loses to Boston College
4. LSU beats Tennessee by a TON
5. Washington beats Hawaii
6. Polls vote LSU over UGA, KU, Missouri and WVU
7. By rule, the Rose would not be allowed to select UGA if LSU is in the national title game. So the Sugar selects UGA
The only reason we'd want Hawaii to lose...so we don't have to play the douche bags. In this scenario, we'd likely play the ACC's second best team.
- 1. Boomer Sooner
2. Go Pitt
3. Very little good comes from an LSU win vs. UT
4. Your ass will be GLUED to the BCS Selection show because all of this is coming down to the opinions of a bunch of guys in funny suits from the Chamber of Commerce for cities that haven't seen UGA Fans up close and personal either (A) ever or (B) in a generation or two
PWD
***Note: if you're wondering why Kansas can't go to the Rose.....well....if Missouri is in the title game, the Rose isn't allowed to select Kansas. If Missouri isn't in the title game, I guess the Rose could pick Kansas. I just don't think they would. I didn't think that through until I finished all the stuff above, and I'm not re-writing it.
29 comments:
um... i must disagree with this statement: "3. Very little good comes from an LSU win vs. UT"
ut losing is its own reward
I heartily recommend everyone root for an Oklahoma victory this weekend, and this alone.
In this scenario, UGA and USC face each other in the Rose Bowl, and Karl Dorrell is almost assuredly fired.
It's win-win for everyone!
I feel so dirty.
Seeing the Dawgs in Pasadena would be great but i've already resigned to the fact that Illinois would sneak into the Rose Bowl ranked somewhere from #12-#14 if they had to replace theOSU. They've complained a lot in recent years about not always having their Pac10/Big10 matchup. I'm not going to set myself up for disappointment by thinking they'll pick the sexy USC vs. UGA matchup.
Therefore I shall be pulling for Missouri and WVU to either both win or both lose. I really don't want to see theOSU crap their collective sweatervest in another title game unless it's against Georgia.
I cannot pull for Tennessee to win against LSU. It's just not in my genetic makeup to be able to do this. Damn you, Vandy!
Great job laying it out. Now, can you explain the infield fly rule to my wife?
No offense intended to a very well researched and detailed post, but am I the only UGA fan that doesn't really GAS about all the possibilities / scenarios?
I'll be pissed if we get shafted for a BCS bowl for sure, and the Rose versus USC would be my preference, but I don't get into it that much otherwise.
I suppose I'm still depressed that we're not playing in ATK tomorrow afternoon :(
There are a few other Sugar possibilities - if in either of the Fiesta scenarios, they pick Hawaii over us, then the Sugar (if we remain top 4) would have to choose us to play LSU.
Also, I think the Rose "could" pick Kansas if Missouri were to get to the title game. If Missouri is in the title game against Ohio State (needed if the Rose gets to pick anyone), Missouri will be #1 overall, and the Fiesta would pick their replacement first. Now, I think you're right to assume that they'd pick Kansas first to replace Missouri, but if they didn't then the Rose would have the second pick and could take Kansas (because the Fiesta had passed on them - If OSU were #1 ahead of Missouri, then the Rose couldn't take Kansas with the first pick unless the Fiesta consented to such). The way that'd work, I think, is that the Fiesta would be betting that it could take Kansas with its second pick as an at-large team:
BCS: Missouri (1) vs. Ohio State (2)
LSU in Sugar, USC in Rose, VT in Orange. WVU at large (but coming off a loss. UGA and Hawaii mandatory picks. 2 more at large teams available.
Fiesta picks first for an at large team. They can take Kansas (as an at-large) to replace Missouri, but they don't have to. They could take Georgia.
Then Rose takes Illinois.
Then Orange is chooses between WVU, Kansas (or other at-large eligible team) and Hawaii. If the Orange takes WVU, then Fiesta could take Kansas with their second pick. Hawaii to Sugar.
It's a reach, but the Fiesta could take the risk that the 40-50% chance of Georgia-Kansas is better than Kansas-WVU (and if Georgia is a better draw than Kansas- which it might be- then a Georgia-WVU bowl might be better than Kansas-WVU).
Also, there's the nightmare scenario: that an LSU win leads to them jumping us after WVU and Missouri win, dropping us to 5th, and outside the automatic BCS at-large berth...
Then the Fiesta takes Kansas...
and with the first at-large pick...
the Orange takes the eligible Florida Gators over us.
No rule prevents it from happening.
Thanks for the summary. I love how all the national pundits and local yocals keep spinning Georgia's chances of playing in the BCS Championship as us trying to "pull a fast one" since we didn't make the SEC Championship.
It's not our fault the system allows this to happen, It's not our fault every conference doesn't play an extra championship game.
All we did was win our last 5 and move up the charts. Excuse us if we look really good right now =).
Any BCS bowl is good for me.
Go Dawgs!!
Boomer Sooner!! Send us to the Rose!!!!
No rule prevents that from happening, but it'd be completely bogus. As I've said over and over:
Georgia
1) Finished ahead of Florida in the SEC East;
2) Finished with a better record than Florida; and
3) BEAT FLORIDA.
Florida had a fine enough year, and Tebow is good, and blah blah. They were also never in the thick of the SEC race after the midpoint of the season and were soundly dismissed by the team they'd have to jump in over.
In short, the Orange Bowl would look like a bunch of idiots at best, and Foley-loving frauds at worst. I don't think they take that chance, given that the payoff (ooh, a sellout!) is moronic (we'd sell out anyway).
Personally, the Rose would be a rare opportunity for any SEC team. While there's a question about a solid #2 Big 10 team to select, I'd like to be in the Rose this year. We may not be in this position with the Big 10 as it is again for a while. Plus I think it would help us as a program to play USC. Win or lose we'll find out a lot about where we are and where we need to go.
BUT there is a reason to want the Fiesta despite the fact that we're playing at Arizona State next year. And that's history.
How many schools have won the Rose, Sugar, Orange, and Fiesta Bowls? To go even further, how many have won all of the above 4 plus the Cotton when it was a major bowl?
This isn't something that is vital. But any chance to distinguish your program from all but a handfull of other programs is a good thing.
Plus Oklahoma is the only top 10 all time program that we've never played before.
Chinese Algebra...sadly, our fate will be determined by a bunch of stodgy old, diaper wearing, creamed corn & apple sauce eating codgers wearing eye bleeding sports coats and who fondly reminisce about Andy Williams' greatest hits (this is especially true of the bowl we (I) covet the most -- Pasadena)....that said, I am old school and prefer such nonsense over a playoff.
Bowl possibilities be damned, I agree with some of your previous commenters -- I can't root for Tennessee to win an SEC title. Not in a box, not with a fox. I've kind of come to enjoy the steam that comes out of Vol fans' ears whenever they're reminded that they haven't won the SEC in nearly a decade, and I have no desire to see that taken away from me.
If LSU beats Tennessee then they will jump ahead of us in the rankings due to a bunch of stodgy old, diaper wearing, creamed corn & apple sauce eating codgers wearing eye bleeding sports coats and who fondly reminisce about Andy Williams' greatest hits.
That's why I want a playoff.
I could see them jumping VT. But...jump two teams that aren't playing, eh? One of which has a better record?
Not that it can't happen, but it makes me scratch my head that people are taking this as a given. Keep in mind that the big Florida '06 push we're all talking about was only over ONE team, and took this national revolution of thought just for it to happen.
Meanwhile, the pollsters seem to not really like LSU (dropping them like a stone after loss #2, to even below VT, who they rolled). Their head-to-heads aren't actually as good as Georgia's...and if the Dawgs played in the West, they'd be in Atlanta too.
So I'm not *really* buying it. You might see a huge push if Georgia's in line for the MNC game, so we don't get a Nebraska '01 repeat...but not otherwise.
And again, if the Orange Bowl chooses inferior Florida to superior Gerogia, then that's their problem. We won't be the ones flushing our credibility down the toilet in such an instance.
anonymous 10:18....I hear ya, but I just dig on every game meaning something....if we have a playoff, then a loss in September/October becomes meaningless.....BCS + 1 is about as far as I would like to see it go....old goats getting to decide whether I get to go to Pasadena notwithstanding
LD - a rule clarification
The Rose (by rule) can't pick Kansas is Missouri is in the title game. There's a rule that basically says if you're picking your replacement team for one of the Top 2 BCS teams playing for the national title, you can't pick a team from the conference of the other BCS bowl repping the other Top 2 team.
In other words...if Missouri is in the title game, the Orange, Sugar, Rose, etc can't pick Kansas without the Fiesta having released them.
someone asked WGAS about where UGA plays?
Well....I do because I'm going. There are 20-35k people who WGAS because they need to start booking travel plans on Dec. 2nd.
Technically, I'm only going if it's NOLA or Pasadena due to work conflicts. But still. I REALLY care.
I agree. I think there are atleast 30,000 fans ready to go to the Rose and make plans.
Selfishly, I'm hoping for an Orange Bowl bid because I live about 20 minutes from the stadium formerly known as Joe Robbie.
But how utterly cool would it be to go to the Rose Bowl? It sure couldn't hurt to get some west coast exposure for shootin', lootin' and recruitin'! Remember, we've tried to pry a few kids from out there in the last few years. Maybe this will boost us. It can't hurt.
One more Sugar possibility:
OU beats Mizzou
Washington beats Hawaii
Illinois becomes BCS-eligible
Arizona State beats Arizona
UGA remains in the top 4 and ahead of Kansas
Illinois to Rose
Kansas to Orange over UGA
Arizona State to Fiesta
UGA to Sugar by rule to face LSU/UT winner
Does anyone know when bowl cutoff scores will be announced and/or if all or how many requests will be filled?
PWD, I know what you're getting at, but that's not exactly how the exception is applied. But here it is verbatim:
"When two bowls lose host teams, then the bowl losing the number one team may not select a replacement team from the same Conference as the number two team, unless the bowl losing the number two team consents."
Technically, this doesn't even apply to the predicted scenario (Missouri would be the only team that another bowl would "lose" because WVU doesn't have a direct tie-in). If WVU were to lose, and OSU went to the BCSNCG, then we'd use this rule. But again, it's a specific exception. The way it would technically be applied is this: If Missouri is #1, and OSU is #2, then the Fiesta would pick first. By this rule, they cannot pick Illinois. That's it. The exception says nothing about subsequent bowls - only #1 stealing a team from #2's conference as its replacement.
Now, if the Fiesta were to choose NOT to pick Kansas as Missouri's replacement (they can technically take anyone they want), there's no rule that technically and specifically prevents the Rose/Orange/or Sugar from picking Kansas thereafter. Relatedly, there's no rule saying that the Fiesta MUST pick as a replacement from Missouri a team from the same conference.
Put in more practical terms, the exception you speak of doesn't "absolutely" prevent another bowl from taking any team (except the bowl that lost #2 can prevent the bowl that lost #1 from taking another team from #2's conference).
The Fiesta doesn't have to replace Missouri with another Big XII conference team - and if they choose not to take Kansas with their replacement pick, there's nothing in the rules that prevents other bowls from taking Kansas.
Another way to look at it is by order of picking. Assume Missouri wins the Big XII, WVU loses to Pitt.
#1 is Missouri (to BCSNCG)
#2 is Ohio State (to BCSNCG)
Orange gets VT/BC.
Sugar gets LSU/UT.
Rose gets USC.
Assume WVU, Hawaii and Georgia are automatic, and there are 2 other slots.
First pick would be the Fiesta, to replace #1. The only team that the Fiesta could NOT pick is Illinois (because they are an eligible team from the conference that #2 is in). They are not REQUIRED to take Kansas.
If they don't take Kansas with that first pick, there is no rule that prevents any other bowl from taking Kansas. (and even if the rule cited above were to apply (though by its terms it doesn't), by not picking Kansas with the first replacement pick, that'd be some form of consent).
The Rose then could take any of the eligible at-large teams: Hawaii, Georgia, WVU, Illinois, a second ACC team, or even Kansas - as long as the Fiesta hasn't already taken that team.
The Orange has the next pick, and they can take whoever's left out of the eligible teams not already taken.
Then the Fiesta has their second pick, and the Sugar has last pick.
For Ivan, I've been looking for the answer to that question ever since LSU went down.
I know that OSU has won the Rose, Orange, Cotton, Fiesta, and Sugar. They may be the only team.
There are about 6 teams that have been to and won the 4 traditional big boys. We are one of those teams along with Tech, Oklahoma, Alabama, OSU of course, and I don't know who else. I know Miami's obviously been to all of them (4 plus Fiesta) but they got beat in the Fiesta at least twice--the OSU and PSU national title games. Speaking of PSU, they may be one of the teams who've been to all of them as well. Texas would be another candidate.
I'm still looking and if anyone can find that stat in some team's media guide please post it.
Guys and gals,
I hate to break it to you, but the Dawgs ain't going to Pasadena. Either The OSU will go or the Zookers will attend. That much is certain.
The good news is that we are INDEED going to the BCS in the form of the Orange Bowl to face either VT or BC.
'Nuff said.
Looked it up, Ivan. Here's the list of teams that have won the Cotton, Rose, Sugar, Orange, and Fiesta. We join this group and the 'elite program' stuff is settled.
Tennessee
Notre Dame
Oklahoma
Ohio State
Penn State
The following teams have been to all five, but have not won all of them. The game they've never won is in parenthesis.
Texas (Fiesta)
Miami (Fiesta)
Nebraska (Rose)
Bring on the Monkeys!
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