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October 4, 2013

Just occurred to me: 3rd and Willie

Is it technically a 3rd and Willie, if Jancek is the DC? Looking over this, you could make the case that it is:
• 3rd Down and long - This is also a blitz heavy down (57%) and Jancek likes to bring interior pressure on third and long.
• Third down and medium - This is a strong zone down for the Volunteers as they are looking to force a punt. Jancek rarely brings the blitz (17%).
• Third down and short - Just like second and short, third and as many yards is a heavy slant or stunt down for the defense (68%).
That looks so much like what we saw with Martinez as DC. How does that match up with our tendencies? Glad you asked.

Georgia 3rd down: 31 passes, 21 rushes, 20 first downs. Probably not shocking: We have run the ball nearly equal number of times in most distances on 3rd down.

3rd Down421472.24114320
3rd Down, 1-3 To Go4640.6702100
3rd Down, 4-6 To Go47121.7116100
3rd Down, 7-9 To Go2320.6703000
3rd Down, 10+ To Go35295.80014120

Passing wise, we do things equally balanced:

3rd Down4311961.335641193.89851584
3rd Down, 1-3 To Go35480.07800211.0435421
3rd Down, 4-6 To Go35360.03310181.4416310
3rd Down, 7-9 To Go411763.610710175.3533422
3rd Down, 10+ To Go410550.013821211.9285431

Also, can you call it 3rd and Willie if we never get to third down? As I mentioned, UGA has only faced 52 3rd downs this season. When you look at the number of first down opportunities (142), you see we are either getting a first down, scoring, or turning the ball over on 63% of all offensive opportunities where we have a first down. To put it another way, we only face 3rd down 37% of the time when we line up on a first down, however earned. We are 18th for the fewest 3rd downs faced this year.

While our conversion rate isn't awesome (38.46%), when you look at the number of 3rd and longs as a % of 3rd down (over half are 3rd and 7+), that shouldn't be a surprise. What should be is the 2 first downs on 3rd and less than 6 running the ball on 13 attempts versus the 7 first downs on 10 attempts when we throw the ball in that situation. Think back to how Willie Jancek tends to defend those plays, plenty of run support and stunts, combined with the probability Gurley sits.

Just something to think about if we get too cute trying to run the ball down their throats establish the run. 
*Stats from


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